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Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

Very weak as of now. This is the feature that's under 94L that Levi was talking about that could head straight towards south fl and into the gulf. Something to keep a eye on
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FWIW I believe some of the gefs models shows this same low in the northern gulf around this time frame
 
Peak of the season and a system in the MDR is struggling with conditions. Story of the year so far. If we cant change conditions to be more conducive then we are gonna have a ton of named storms that are forgotten by next year. That's not a bad thing just a boring thing.......we all like tracking big storms.
 
Shaggy said:
Peak of the season and a system in the MDR is struggling with conditions. Story of the year so far. If we cant change conditions to be more conducive then we are gonna have a ton of named storms that are forgotten by next year. That's not a bad thing just a boring thing.......we all like tracking big storms.
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That is definitely a very good thing IF it were to continue as boring is good. I think the story of the year so far is easily the very powerful Laura, which is an E MDR (E of 50W) originating storm. This makes a notable four seasons in a row of an E MDR genesis hitting the US. Also, the US has had another active year overall, regardless of what happens from here on out.

The wave about to come off Africa is a huge wild card right now. It getting strong early is our ally as it would favor an early recurve vs staying weak favoring a more dangerous further westward potential for the Caribbean and points W and N.
 
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GaWx said:
That is definitely a very good thing IF it were to continue as boring is good. I think the story of the year so far is easily the very powerful Laura, which is an E MDR originating storm. Also, the US has had another active year overall, regardless of what happens from here on out.

The wave about to come off Africa is a huge wild card right now. It getting strong early is our ally as it would favor an early recurve vs staying weak favoring a more dangerous further westward potential for the Caribbean and points W and N.
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Experience tells me with Paullette and Rene meandering around the central Atlantic theres plenty of weakness in the ridge and the next wave will follow them on out. Things can certainly change it that has been my experience over the decades.
 
This is interesting:
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">While the Atlantic has had a record-setting number of named storms (17) thru September 8, they have so far combined to generate less Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) than <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Hurricane?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc^tfw">#Hurricane</a> Dorian (2019) did by itself. ACE is integrated metric accounting for intensity and duration. <a href="https://t.co/0OBUs8BFhL">pic.twitter.com/0OBUs8BFhL</a></p>&mdash; Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) <a href="">September 8, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
Shaggy said:
Experience tells me with Paullette and Rene meandering around the central Atlantic theres plenty of weakness in the ridge and the next wave will follow them on out. Things can certainly change it that has been my experience over the decades.
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Regarding the wave about to come off Africa, the 12Z GEFS mean joins the 12Z runs of the GFS, ICON, CMC, and very likely UKMET (based on hour 144) with a well OTS recurve. The mean is further NE than recent GEFS runs. I can’t see individual members yet. So, there still may be a couple that go much further west.

So, the 12Z consensus so far is saying recurve well OTS and even E of Bermuda. We’ll see what the all knowing great King says in an hour or so.
 
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GaWx said:
Regarding the wave about to come off Africa, the 12Z GEFS mean joins the 12Z runs of the GFS, ICON, CMC, and very likely UKMET (based on its 12Z run) with a well OTS recurve. The mean is further NE than recent GEFS runs. I can’t see individual members yet. So, there still may be a couple that go much further west.

So, the 12Z consensus so far is saying recurve well OTS and even E of Bermuda. We’ll see what the all knowing great King says in an hour or so.
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Will be interesting to see what it looks like in 2 weeks time.....
 
00z GFS PARA......I'm not sure which storm this is.....but it still has the Caribbean scenery tour....

ScreenshotCapture_2020_09_09_13_53_17_280.jpg
 
Regarding the wave now coming off of Africa, all 12Z guidance to this point has been strongly suggesting well OTS. However, the12Z para GEFS says hold on a minute as it has out of its ~31 members ~5 that go into the Caribbean and 2 others that go north of the GAs and then actually hit near the SC/NC border. So, ~7 of 31 of the 12Z para GEFS are very threatening.
 
Based on hour 120, the 12Z King looks to be going WAY west of the 0Z. How far west is anyone’s guess as it is still early in the run.
 
GaWx said:
Based on hour 120, the 12Z King looks to be going WAY west of the 0Z. How far west is anyone’s guess as it is still early in the run.
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However, the 12Z Euro still recurves well east of the LAs near 50 W.
 
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Ouch.....18z GFS.....no re-curve on this one.....hour 228....waiting on the rest....

ScreenshotCapture_2020_09_09_18_57_04_150.jpg

Hour 288.....look familiar....

ScreenshotCapture_2020_09_09_19_12_56_261.jpg

The rest of this is just dismal....dragging up the east coast. See the rest on pivotal weather....

www.pivotalweather.com

Models: GFS - Pivotal Weather

View GFS weather model forecast map image for Precipitation Type, Rate in Continental US on pivotalweather.com.
www.pivotalweather.com www.pivotalweather.com
 
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Another area to watch in the Gulf

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Paulette, located over the central tropical Atlantic, and on
Tropical Storm Rene, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic.

1. A small low pressure area located about 240 miles southeast of
Wilmington, North Carolina, has become less organized since
yesterday. The low is forecast to move northwestward at 10 to 15
mph, and some development is still possible before it moves inland
over eastern North Carolina Thursday afternoon. Interests along the
coasts of North and South Carolina should continue to monitor the
progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

2. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorm is centered a
couple of hundred miles northeast of the Central Bahamas. This
system is forecast to drift westward and will likely be in the
vicinity of the Florida peninsula on Friday. Afterward, upper-level
conditions could become conducive for some development this weekend
while the system drifts west-northwestward over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

3. A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
on Thursday. Gradual development is anticipated once the system
moves over water, and a tropical depression is expected to form
late this week or over the weekend while the system moves generally
westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

4. Another tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of
Africa this weekend. Environmental conditions could be conducive
for slow development over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean
early next week while the wave moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Blake
 
Henry2326 said:
Ouch.....18z GFS.....no re-curve on this one.....hour 228....waiting on the rest....

View attachment 48236

Hour 288.....look familiar....

View attachment 48239

The rest of this is just dismal....dragging up the east coast. See the rest on pivotal weather....

www.pivotalweather.com

Models: GFS - Pivotal Weather

View GFS weather model forecast map image for Precipitation Type, Rate in Continental US on pivotalweather.com.
www.pivotalweather.com www.pivotalweather.com
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Looks like Superstorm Sandy combining with that front.
 
For the wave about to exit Africa, 0Z ICON says very early E Atlantic recurve.
 
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