Tropical Major Hurricane Laura

[WeatherNC]

That's what I was saying days ago

Of course I never expected this

Guidance did a pretty good job this go round picking up on RI potential, intensity has and will always be more difficult to predict than track.

 

[Arcc]

We went 26 years without a US category 5 landfall(1992-2018) and now we stand a real shot at 2 in less than 2 years

Not only that but if this comes in a strengthening Cat 5; the era of rapidly weakening Gulf coast landfalls is officially over. That outcome will never be assumed anymore by myself.

 

[thanksgivingbrown]

I can’t watch a thing. It only gives their names.

Click on the eyeball to the right of the name

 

[tramadoc]

Click on the eyeball to the right of the name

Thanks

 

[NWTENN]

Models seem to do a better job at forecasting track than intensity.

The NHC has done remarkably well on the track of this thing.

 

[jackendrickwx]

Second pass of recon beginning soon

 

[Brent]

The NHC has done remarkably well on the track of this thing.

Yes I have to agree there they could have easily shifted to Texas like the EPS showed but they stuck to the border area and everything converged. Funny how that works

 

[Stormsfury]

That gap of warmer cloud tops on the west side really cooled over the last few frames now it may be trying to rebuild the eastern side.

There's still mesovorticies flying around this sucker...that is helping to continue this rapid deepening episode ... 88° bathwater is an effective means to fuel a heat engine like Laura.

 

[Philstorm91]

I feel like I should catch a nap for a few hours this evening to be rested for the action around midnight or so.

 

[Henry2326]

Models seem to do a better job at forecasting track than intensity.

HWRF, HMON, AND NAM told us this two days ago.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Brett Adair and crew will be live streaming tonight. Should be a good one to watch. Hopefully most people have taken the warnings seriously and evacuated

Hit this link: Live storm chasing

I have a Roku and saw the Weather Nation channel app on there has their live stream on it.

 

[Chazwin]

For the rest of this season if I hear one sxxt word about HWRF, HMON, OR NAM, I will call you out and we will go at it.....Listen when they speak.....none of the models will be right all the time.....but these

Yup....lol

Well I will say this for the HWRF and HMON is that they seem to be fit for storms that are in a perfect environment for strengthening and rapid intensification. The only problem is it seems to one want to do the same thing with storms that aren’t going in that perfect environment

 

[Shaggy]

Well I will say this for the HWRF and HMON is that they seem to be fit for storms that are in a perfect environment for strengthening and rapid intensification. The only problem is it seems to one want to do the same thing with storms that aren’t going in that perfect environment

Like I said yesterday they had gonzalo entering the lesser antilles as a cat 4. If you cry wolf every storm sooner or later you will be right.

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

Why is it that storm chasers always seem to be guys ? I guess women have more brains than guys do.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

But seriously, who is chasing this thing? I need some links to watch tonight.

 

[jackendrickwx]

But seriously, who is chasing this thing? I need some links to watch tonight.

Brett Adair on livestormchasing.com
TBH idk if you're going to get much on the stream though

 

[Henry2326]

Like I said yesterday they had gonzalo entering the lesser antilles as a cat 4. If you cry wild every storm sooner or later you will be right.

It's important to look at trends for all of them instead of just throwing them out when they do something crazy.....since they all do something crazy.....just like 18z GFS giving pressure of 960 at landfall..... ?

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Brett Adair on livestormchasing.com
TBH idk if you're going to get much on the stream though

Yeah I might try to catch some of it after I finish studying for my first test tonight but it won't be a lot, and since it's going to be dark I'm not sure I'll see much.

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

Hopefully no hurricane parties are being thrown in Lake Charles. I think i remember them having hurricane parties for Camille

 

[thanksgivingbrown]

Jeff Piotrowski is another chaser worth watching. Here's his link https://www.pscp.tv/w/1nAJEAeeoWvJL

 

[Snowfan]

001030 2827N 09259W 6948 02672 9359 +228 +080 198014 016 033 005 00
Pressure down to 935.9 mb.

 

[NWTENN]

Hopefully no hurricane parties are being thrown in Lake Charles. I think i remember them having hurricane parties for Camille

You say this and I had a sense of dread on my stomach. I can guarantee you there's one somewhere and I sure hope I'm wrong.

 

[Shawn]

Please stay on topic for the storm, there is a banter thread located here: Banter

 

[Tornadocane]

Yeah I might try to catch some of it after I finish studying for my first test tonight but it won't be a lot, and since it's going to be dark I'm not sure I'll see much.

Is that dude in his car while the storm surge is approaching? That's F-ing crazy.

 

[Arcc]

Hot towers popping in the northern eyewall and CDO is becoming more symmetrical.

 

[Henry2326]

 

[Chazwin]

This is absolutely incredible. I remember watching on that day in October nearly 2 years ago as Michael just kept noticeably getting stronger just watching the satellite and radar and thinking that it was a once in a lifetime event. Now less than two years later it’s like watching the same thing.

 

[Snowfan]

352
URNT15 KWBC 270021
NOAA2 2413A LAURA HDOB 21 20200827
001200 2834N 09259W 6961 02666 9395 +202 +088 114032 036 037 004 00
001230 2836N 09259W 6958 02678 9409 +197 +091 106037 039 050 004 00
001300 2838N 09300W 6950 02695 9409 +199 +093 096041 042 075 007 00
001330 2840N 09300W 6971 02671 9446 +164 +134 083058 064 126 005 00
001400 2842N 09300W 7063 02596 9482 +166 +158 094095 112 128 022 03
001430 2844N 09300W 6974 02744 9556 +129 //// 096132 140 133 062 01
001500 2846N 09300W 6959 02808 9625 +113 //// 093139 141 137 054 05
001530 2848N 09300W 6959 02853 9673 +112 //// 095130 134 119 059 05
001600 2850N 09300W 6956 02898 9715 +116 //// 098126 128 108 047 01
001630 2852N 09300W 6958 02931 9751 +117 //// 099120 122 098 028 01
001700 2854N 09300W 6967 02951 9778 +121 //// 101118 120 095 022 01
001730 2856N 09300W 6957 02987 9806 +118 //// 101108 110 088 023 01
001800 2858N 09300W 6963 03000 9836 +113 //// 100110 111 083 022 01
001830 2900N 09300W 6965 03014 9861 +109 //// 099104 106 075 019 01
001900 2902N 09300W 6956 03040 9875 +113 //// 101097 099 073 013 01
001930 2904N 09300W 6960 03054 9896 +110 //// 101087 089 068 013 01
002000 2907N 09300W 6954 03069 9904 +114 //// 098090 093 066 012 01
002030 2909N 09300W 6960 03070 9908 +119 //// 101090 093 060 016 01
002100 2911N 09300W 6955 03087 9928 +111 //// 102080 082 061 013 01
002130 2913N 09300W 6968 03078 9939 +109 //// 101076 078 061 012 01

133 kts SFMR found in the northern eyewall.

 

[jackendrickwx]

001430 2844N 09300W 6974 02744 9556 +129 //// 096132 140 133 062 01

 

[Henry2326]

 

[Snowfan]

001500 2846N 09300W 6959 02808 9625 +113 //// 093139 141 137 054 05

That's flagged.

 

[NRVWX]

He's gonna a good blast of wind being 50+ feet off the ground. At least it will keep him above the surge.

 

[WeatherNC]

Anyway you slice it, this is becoming more common. Wish we were on the same trajectory for snow storms

 

[ajr]

That's flagged.

whoops, I misread the flag

 

[Henry2326]

 

[Henry2326]

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

Looks like there's never been 2 storms of 150+ in a 2 year span.

 

[Brick Tamland]

So this would be the third in the last 16 years.

 

[Henry2326]

Looks like there's never been 2 storms of 150+ in a 2 year span.

That made landfall at that level.....plenty hit it before landfall.

 

[Henry2326]

So this would be the third in the last 16 years.

And 2 of the 3 were in the last 2 years.....that might should concern us....geez