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Tropical Major Hurricane Laura

BHS1975 said:
Florida is pretty flat with little in the way of friction from vegetation.


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Yeah but like with Iseias a core needs to develop and a weak system dragging a weak core over Florida even if flat SHOULD take it more time to reorganize its core before it can rapidly develop? Will it have enough time I guess is the question.
 
Shaggy said:
Seems odd that its weak and disorganized as it hits Florida but still explodes while briefly over the gom. I would think that much land interaction would keep it in check?
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I think track is somewhat consistent with the ICON. GFS is good for track not necessarily strength, that's why we have the Hurricane models.
 
Assuming we do go into the Gulf with the conditions talked about, could end up being somewhat like Hanna in which future Laura/Marco just thankfully runs out of water as it's intensifying, perhaps.
 
Shaggy said:
Yeah but like with Iseias a core needs to develop and a weak system dragging a weak core over Florida even if flat SHOULD take it more time to reorganize its core before it can rapidly develop? Will it have enough time I guess is the question.
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Yeah depends on how organized it is when approaching FL. Hopefully it will miss to the east and head OTS.


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BHS1975 said:
Yeah depends on how organized it is when approaching FL. Hopefully it will miss to the east and head OTS.


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Yeah obviously if its a stronger well developed system as it crosses Florida then the faster it can strengthen over the GOM.

Theres all sorts of unknowns as well with what part of Florida it may cross which changes amount of time over water.

I'm doubting an OTS track on this one.
 
As [mention]Avalanche [/mention] , [mention]SD [/mention] mentioned earlier, This time of year and especially the next couple of days. The zonal flow of the US is exceptionally strong. Bringing cooler dryer air to most of the Ohio River valley and north east. That being said this system will most likely race off to the northeast at a fast pace. Once Inland a couple of hundred miles. (Pending a gulf coast landfall.)

-D


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CADEffect said:
As [mention]Avalanche [/mention] , [mention]SD [/mention] mentioned earlier, This time of year and especially the next couple of days. The zonal flow of the US is exceptionally strong. Bringing cooler dryer air to most of the Ohio River valley and north east. That being said this system will most likely race off to the northeast at a fast pace. Once Inland a couple of hundred miles. (Pending a gulf coast landfall.)

-D


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I am a little concerned that this could get stuck to be honest. Really a matter of do we get a more amplified ridge across the north central US into the lakes.
 
JaxHurricane12 said:
very similar to ICON and GFS as far as track goes. Notice other system in GOM basically dissipates though.
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Georgia would get hammered in that track even northern Georgia would have high winds. Looks like smaller version of hurricane opal. That knocked power out for weeks in northern Georgia and lots of down trees!!
 
12z UKMET crawls it straight up AL

850hv.conus.png

126

and here is 144

850hv.conus.png
 
The possible track of this thing reminds me of a storm from September 2004, was it Ivan?

Edit: Ivan tracked south of the islands, whereas this one looks to track north.

E1467468-6F1BE820609DAFACC1256F2D00484D40-noaa_car070904.png
 
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