May be?

[Myfrotho704_]

Quite favorable pattern for mesoscale Convective systems or maybe some sneaky pieces of energy moving to our northeast firing up storms around here

 

[Chazwin]

Was it August of '18 NC was sandwiched to the east of a trough and west of the ridge for like 2 weeks? It was just this beautiful stretch of afternoon storms, and with crazy high pwat values it was like turning buckets over instead of simple rain.

It was August ‘18 and that stretch got the ground very saturated and rivers/creeks full before Florence crawled through in mid Sept

 

[BirdManDoomW]

I hope we can shift the best moisture over Virginia and bake the Carolinas in the low 90s please.

 

[Jessy89]

I hope we can shift the best moisture over Virginia and bake the Carolinas in the low 90s please.

I have to disagree a bit there. I wouldn’t mind having some evening storms in the Carolinas. Nothing severe. Hoping to avoid a drought


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Webberweather53]

GEFS looks wetter basically everywhere in the SE US as it continues to trend slower & further west w/ this upper low.

Me gusta.

 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

I hope we can shift the best moisture over Virginia and bake the Carolinas in the low 90s please.

Booo! Yuck! No 90s!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

ECMWF = fun

 

[cd2play]

By the time verification time

GEFS looks wetter basically everywhere in the SE US as it continues to trend slower & further west w/ this upper low.

Me gusta.


View attachment 41387

By the time verification time is here, that thing will be sitting and spinning in St Louis

 

[SD]

Euro looked great, low drops in, rains, gone by the long weekend

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Lol

 

[SD]

Lol

Required why can't we get that in winter post

 

[J.C.]

CAE has yet to officially hit 90° yet I believe. My weather station here in Lexington hit 90° on May 5th. But other than that, the state has yet to have a day of widespread 90s yet.

Thats great for that area. I've been above 80 five times since the April 1st, highest is 83.8F.

 

[SD]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

View attachment 41396

Love these daily chances for storms, should we be concerned about that CAD boundary tho ?

 

[Webberweather53]

This is escalating quickly

 

[SD]

Love these daily chances for storms, should we be concerned about that CAD boundary tho ?

I don't think there is any way around that not getting into the area late Tuesday into part of Wednesday. Will certainly help out on getting widespread rain for the state and may cause some issues with severe along the boundary itself.

If we get a track like the Euro where the UL drops to our west then lifts north Thursday and Friday become good storm chance days as the WF lifts north and we warm back into the upper 70s low 80s. Pretty decent wind threat on the Euro

 

[Webberweather53]

This is escalating quickly

View attachment 41397

Zoomed in look at the Carolinas. Definitely a CAD signature on the mean and 2-4" seems like a good bet already area-wide, wouldn't be shocked to see these totals continue to increase on later runs.

 

[SD]

Zoomed in look at the Carolinas. Definitely a CAD signature on the mean and 2-4" seems like a good bet already area-wide, wouldn't be shocked to see these totals continue to increase on later runs.

That doubled the 0z mean plus some. Interested to see some of the individual members and how high they go

 

[Rain Cold]

Required why can't we get that in winter post

We do. It's just 60 degrees in the source region.

 

[Webberweather53]

That doubled the 0z mean plus some. Interested to see some of the individual members and how high they go

Yeah very curious to see how the members look on this run. Last night's drier 0z run had some members dropping 6-8" of rain in the piedmont.

Looks like we might need to rent a boat