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5/4-6 possible severe wx

JHS said:
A slight risk covers a good bit more of NC now. 2 rounds of storms possible wherever the warm front sets up.
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Sun's out guns out here.
 
I believe we get a Tornado watch today. This one will get ugly with the sun out


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It’s already 70 bright sunshine upstate sc. this can’t be good


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SD said:
ESE to SE wind too. Wonder how much we can raise dews today
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Yall are a tad SW of me and you got sun? You tell me there is hope or am I going to watch southern wake and Harnett county soar into the 70s and near 80 while RDU stays socked under clouds and 60. I've seen it happen before now, where yall were far warmer than RDU so until its sunny here I have no faith we even hit 60 again.
 
Lickwx said:
Yall are a tad SW of me and you got sun? You tell me there is hope or am I going to watch southern wake and Harnett county soar into the 70s and near 80 while RDU stays socked under clouds and 60. I've seen it happen before now, where yall were far warmer than RDU so until its sunny here I have no faith we even hit 60 again.
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I see full blue sky to the south, it's a little more filtered here. Up to 63
 
Cold 53 with showers. 40s nearby mountains. I’m guessing boundary will be south of me a few counties.
 
SD said:
I see full blue sky to the south, it's a little more filtered here. Up to 63
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Interesting, already up to 62 again at RDU as well which is 2 higher than our forecast high. Winds are even out of the E/ ESE which is hopeful. Heres hoping for mid- upper 70s. Lets get us some storms boys.
 
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Lot of heavy rain NC/VA border. That could influence the boundary or delay it’s movement north out of the Charlotte region.
 
SD said:
ESE to SE wind too. Wonder how much we can raise dews today
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SPC has the slight risk just to our south. 12 hrrrrrrrrrr had the complex just to our south as well. Not a lot of margin for error. 20 miles north is doable.
 
Rain Cold said:
SPC has the slight risk just to our south. 12 hrrrrrrrrrr had the complex just to our south as well. Not a lot of margin for error. 20 miles north is doable.
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3K says elevated hailers incoming. Really not a bad look, I wouldn't be surprised to see some severe reports north of the slight today in the cooler sfc air. I think our threat is wind/hail unless whatever gets going stays discrete and can get down to the sfc.
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Decent swath of lightning coming out of Tennessee but running into temps in the 40s. But could act as a trigger for western NC.
 
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SD said:
3K says elevated hailers incoming. Really not a bad look, I wouldn't be surprised to see some severe reports north of the slight today in the cooler sfc air. I think our threat is wind/hail unless whatever gets going stays discrete and can get down to the sfc.
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Trusty car thermometer showing 65. Full clouds now, though.
 
The heat is on down here in Charleston. Reached 91 yesterday, will be 89 today. Charleston's average first 90 degree day is May 4th, so yesterday was right on schedule.
 
Multiple storms firing in western NC where morning rain was passing just north.
 
Partly cloudy, warm, and humid here in Travelers Rest. I think today may be an interesting day...moving the cars into the garage for sure.


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Expanded slight risk at 1300
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areas between Asheville and Hickory are now in the upper 60s. Compared to Boone and Wilkesboro mid 40s to 50. May be some action for the central foothills around Asheville IMO today East to Shelby NC.
 
These updraft helicity probs on the HREF are impressive to say the least. Environment definitely supports isolated tornadoes along the warm front, looks like the US HWY 74 corridor will be targeted (yet again)
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Positive lightning here and backyard temp down to 49. Noticed quiet a bit of mPING reports of sleet/snow further north in WV/Ohio this morning. 64F7AD10-35BB-4EF7-96A9-5E47984C8DE6.jpeg
 
Webberweather53 said:
Solid large-scale environmental forecast sounding on the HRRR, equally supports all severe hazards across today's slight risk, w/ a heightened threat for tornadoes along the warm front.

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Webb, is this gonna look like those supercells we had a while back? Haven't really been watching models on this
 
HRRR is too warm for MBY. The 11am run initializes at 56 which is right, but has me at 62 by noon, and it's still 56 here. Then it has me at 67 by 1pm and I can guarantee that isn't happening.
 
One thing of note and maybe @Webberweather53 can chime in, is that clouds appear to be back building a bit after some morning sun. I'm guessing the clouds will retreat north as the afternoon progresses?
 
Sleet City USA said:
Webb, is this gonna look like those supercells we had a while back? Haven't really been watching models on this
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These supercells will lean towards classics over low precipitation supercells that we saw a while back. Shorter hodographs, higher deep layer relative humidity, and cyclonic curvature in the lowest 3km will result in not only more precipitation, but more of it getting wrapped around the mesocyclones
 
smast16 said:
HRRR is too warm for MBY. The 11am run initializes at 56 which is right, but has me at 62 by noon, and it's still 56 here. Then it has me at 67 by 1pm and I can guarantee that isn't happening.
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Prob won’t matter much since upstream obs are ripe for thunderstorm development. It’s all going to get funneled through the Asheville area due East...similar to SPC slight area I would agree with.
 
Webberweather53 said:
These supercells will lean towards classics over low precipitation supercells that we saw a while back. Shorter hodographs, higher deep layer relative humidity, and cyclonic curvature in the lowest 3km will result in not only more precipitation, but more of it getting wrapped around the mesocyclones
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So we could see supercells in upstate SC twice in two weeks? lol
 
80/67 here right now. Not sure if I will get something later, but I saw the Hrrr wants to form a few storms nearby. Will be interesting to watch later.
 
Raining here in Greensboro and the latest HRRR looks like it's way too warm. We should be hitting 65 in 30 minutes. It's 55 where I am so we've got a lot of catching up to do there.
 
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