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4/11/20 - 4/13/20 Severe Weather Outbreak

ICON kills this threat as it tries to head East of the NC foothills. I see some signs that eastern NC and coastal NC could end up much dryer than what’s being shown. With that said, this threat does favor the MTNS with some much needed heavy rain possibly even severe wx. ?
 
I’m not complaining, just observing. Since I’ve lived in the Triad (4 years) I’ve noticed that we tend to miss the severest of the sever weather. My guess is it will turn out that way with this set up, too.
 
MHX

Sunday through Monday...A strong shortwave over the southern
Plains will lift toward the Great Lakes, eventually being
absorbed into a developing cutoff low Sunday into Monday. The
attendant surface low lifts from the Tennessee Valley across the
Midwest, bringing a warm front across eastern NC Sunday and
introducing POPs back into the forecast. However, the best WAA
does not get going until Sunday night into Monday morning, when
the gradient tightens locally and a notably strong 50-60 kt LLJ
moves over the area, bringing very strong low level theta-e
advection. Despite the unfavorable diurnal timing, instability
will quickly climb to 1000-1500+ J/kg, and showers with some
embedded thunderstorms are likely Monday morning. Strong
gradient winds are expected along the coast, with gusty/damaging
winds in the strongest storms possible across the entire area
as ample low level shear could allow for convection to become
organized. Some variability regarding timing remains between
long range guidance members, and the severe threat will be
further refined in subsequent forecasts. Heavy rainfall is also
possible at times, though individual storms should be
progressive enough to preclude a widespread flash flooding
threat.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Big pause, been noticing with soundings now that theres wayyy more EML advection, this may help or hurt, may keep supercells isolated, or may just keep a line of convection wth barely anything out ahead
Click to expand...

Yeah that's how it goes EMLs. I've been saved by them before and saw nothing but a few showers and some thunder but at the same time when a cap breaks, sh*t gets real in a hurry.
 
Curious on everyone's thoughts here on this. Some mets have said the majority of severe storms will be relegated to the Ohio/TN valley and west of the Apps. JB said it would extend eastward into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. How do you see it playing out?
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Big pause, been noticing with soundings now that theres wayyy more EML advection, this may help or hurt, may keep supercells isolated, or may just keep a line of convection wth barely anything out ahead
Click to expand...

Kind of a double-edged sword there.

A better EML would lend itself to better instability, which would aid in the intensity of the storms that do develop.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Big pause, been noticing with soundings now that theres wayyy more EML advection, this may help or hurt, may keep supercells isolated, or may just keep a line of convection wth barely anything out ahead
Click to expand...

I think you almost have to have an EML here to get really any shot of discrete convection. Not only to keep junk convection/showers down, but really need to improve low level lapse rates with this much shear.
 
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ICON continues to trend less severe and even less rainy for most. Not a model of choice tho but others were discussing it when it was extreme.
 
This is starting to look very scary. I only hope the severe threat decreases here as we get closer to Monday since we have a few more days. But I recall the April 16, 2011 outbreak was forecasted a few days out, too.
 
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