What is Euro showing for Columbia SC?
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
4/11/20 - 4/13/20 Severe Weather Outbreak
- Thread starter Webberweather53
- Start date
-
- Tags
- severe weather tornadoes
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Euro is basically showing Apr 16 2011 part ii in the Carolinas
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
These thermals and parameter spaces are hilariously similar.
mean looking QLCS with embedded supercells, soundings very supportive as well, even at night thermodynamics are solid for a high end HSLC event, hodo is scary, shear is scary, and I thought that setup back in February was scary 
also that CIPS analog looks similar to last years moderate
also that CIPS analog looks similar to last years moderate
Bunker right Storm motions over 70kts is just insane
BHS1975
Member
Early morning timing too. 
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
We hardly ever get the diurnal timing right around here. Usually morning or overnight stuff that looks bad 5 days out but ends up not a big deal. The parameters with this setup appear to be pretty impressive, but we have a long way to go. Would like to see better timing before getting too excited...for here, I mean.Early morning timing too.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
If you see this in mid April, you probably don't need much explanation for what's happening over the SE US
Yeah the EPS really starting to come together at H5 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
GFS completely folded to the Euro, still ticking NW on this run. Embarrassing.
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
Really shows you the strength and superiority of the euro. It was at a disadvantage and more susceptible to issues with the ongoing issue of lack of data from aircraft due to the coronavirus. And the gfs still had to play catch up.
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Whens reed timmer going to start saying historic tornado outbreak likely?. Hes probaby too caught up in the severe weather up north so i give it a day.
Shaggy
Member
Sorry guys for this but I have been asleep all day for work tonight. Is this for Sunday or Sunday night? Timing is of great concern for me for family daycare reasons.
If we speed this up 12 hrs or slow it down 12 we are in really deep ----
Right now for your area it would be arriving just before 12z Monday
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Stormsfury
Member
Very odd you stated that. Thursday's record high was set in 2011 at Charleston with 90...(lot of similarities indeed). Locally we had a brief but failed attempt at a supercell in Summerville... Storm was sheared apart by marine influences in the early afternoon). But we all know what happened basically just north of here and into NC that day
It’s very far off when you were showing the euro rain totals of 2-4”+. GFS is half inch of rain if that and less for the NC/VA border areas. Anyone with tropical tidbits can see you are flat out wrong saying it completely folded. I know the GFS sucks but you are being wishy-washy showing the euro extremes then falsely saying the GFS folded. I’m mostly tracking the rain which most need in their gardens.
GFS is trending towards the euro anyways, with severe and rain, the gfs has basically folded... in being a complete trash model, lol
SnowNotHappen
Member
so local met here in the Lowcountry isn't buying the severe weather threat ??
Jrips2710
Member
Obviously we are 5+ days out so no chance of having the finite details ironed out this far. It does seem like there is a lot of rain/convection being modeled in some areas earlier in the day. I do wonder if that potentially will be the main limiting factor in this. Could prevent things from getting crazy in areas further north. Will be interesting to see how things play out over the next several days.
Euro is leading the way so far. No surprise. See y’all around 2am
Euro is leading the way so far. No surprise. See y’all around 2am
Ima be pissed if I get a 70mph gust with less than half inch of rain. I have a feeling euro is gonna bust hard on rain totals.
BufordWX
Member
00z Icon. I don’t think the dark red and pink colors are good.
BufordWX
Member
The GFS NW trend continues. Lol
BufordWX
Member
You can now add the Canadian to the list of models that have folded to the Euro.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
0z ECMWF is running, about to see the 7th run in a row w/ big time severe outbreak.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Synoptically, this run is even more dangerous looking than the 12z thru 72 hr, with our trough over New England lifting out faster and downstream s/w ridge over Texas intensifying.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yep, this won't end well.
Shaggy
Member
With the energy over near the west coast being stronger and a little SW wouldnt that also slow it down some more? Seems the euro is really digging that energy.
BufordWX
Member
Euro has a 983 mb low over Arkansas at hour 120. That’s a lot stronger then before.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This sounding near Atlanta is stupid. The one nitpick I have is the piss poor low-level lapse rates of 5-5.5 C/km, you really want this to be closer to at least 6.5-7C/km or so for tornadoes and to maximize low-level stretching. Other than that, the environment is insane, 100 knots of deep layer shear...
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Overall, another pretty nasty looking run but much less impressive looking in the eastern Carolinas as the low occludes over the lakes, then again probably aint saying much given how insane it was.
BufordWX
Member
SPC pulling out the day 4 and 5 outlook areas now.
Day 4:
Day 5:
Day 4:
Day 5:
Lock in the 00z model runs please.
They were all money locally.
They were all money locally.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
CIPS analogs day 4-5 probability for all severe + individual hail, tor, and wind risk break down for day 5. Keep in mind these are based on the 0z GEFS, if they were instead based on the 0z EPS, yikes.
Hail
Wind
Tornado
Hail
Wind
Tornado
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I'd hedge by bets on this slower/more amped trend in our upper low over the Desert Southwest probably being unfinished. I'd almost exclusively lean on the slower/amped Euro/UKMET solutions for overall synoptic-scale evolution & timing for this event because the GEFS, GFS, & NAM are going to remain completely lost for a few more days.
That would allow Carolina alley to get in on this one
RAH taking the heavy rain route with no mention of severe around here. Probably not a bad idea at this point, especially if the main low continues to trend north and west of here.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Well if we keep ticking NW, severe will definitely become the main concern over heavy rain. (minus along the warm front)
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah, we gotta keep a close eye on the timing & amplitude of this upper low the next few days, both a slower & more amped upper low would delay the timing into the afternoon on Monday in the Carolinas, we're probably about 9-12 hours too fast on the Euro. Not even worth looking at the GFS for this unless you like watching a train wreck unfold in real-time.