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4/11/20 - 4/13/20 Severe Weather Outbreak

Zander98al said:
On the large scale things look pretty bad, not apocalyptic lol. Tommorow i think when close range models get into range there will be a much better handle on the magnitude of things.
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Like April 2011?


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Zander98al said:
Probably not if we're talking about april 27th in MS/AL. But who knows the ceiling is pretty high on the event according the the other board members i only know a little compared to some of them
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Not in the ballpark of April 27 2011 and probably not in the ballpark of April 15th 2011 in AL atleast. Lots of questions still concerning this threat that need to be answered.
 
That line should be through Chatt in a few hours.. wonder how well it holds up. Straight line winds look to be the main issue. Okay, wrong thread... lol
 
Trivial differences thus far on this 0z Euro run in the evolution of this upper trough over the Desert SW, the truly noteworthy piece atm is that the mid-level height field is just a lot higher basically everywhere in the southwest & most of the south thru 60 hr.
 
I like the storm slinky part, even though it's completely over my head. (yeah, I need to learn up on severe storm stuff.. :)
 
The 3km NAM is just starting to come into range for the day 3 slight over Texas, starts out as a threat for elevated convection Saturday afternoon, once storms go off and start mixing out the low-level cold dome along with large-scale theta-e advection off the Gulf and synoptic scale forcing for ascent, they should become surface based later on Saturday night
 
Concerning language in the discussion indeed. I do find it interesting they dip the 15% in north Georgia. Only to bring it further north again in the Carolinas. Probably nitpicking too much but makes sense given the uncertainty on how far north destabilization goes.

Just glad we don’t have to stay up til 5am anymore for these outlooks ?

night y’all
 
I must say I’m surprised the 15% doesn’t stretch farther north or include most of the upstate. Seems like they would after the CIPS Webber keeps posting continue to show a far north extent reaching up into Kentucky. And the euro/eps look more menacing then that.
 
Think SPC is gonna wait until some of the mesoscale models come into play to pull things north. There is a lot of junkvection being modeled early on in northern areas. They probably want to see how far north ingredients are able to make it.
 
Ethan80963 said:
I must say I’m surprised the 15% doesn’t stretch farther north or include most of the upstate. Seems like they would after the CIPS Webber keeps posting continue to show a far north extent reaching up into Kentucky. And the euro/eps look more menacing then that.
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If the primary low tracks up into the OH valley and stays near or west of the MS, the severe threat, especially for damaging winds, will extend well into the Tennessee Valley even if the CAPE isn't all the amazing
 
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