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4/11/20 - 4/13/20 Severe Weather Outbreak

Obviously we are 5+ days out so no chance of having the finite details ironed out this far. It does seem like there is a lot of rain/convection being modeled in some areas earlier in the day. I do wonder if that potentially will be the main limiting factor in this. Could prevent things from getting crazy in areas further north. Will be interesting to see how things play out over the next several days.

Euro is leading the way so far. No surprise. See y’all around 2am
 
Ima be pissed if I get a 70mph gust with less than half inch of rain. I have a feeling euro is gonna bust hard on rain totals.
 
Webberweather53 said:
0z ECMWF is running, about to see the 7th run in a row w/ big time severe outbreak.
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Synoptically, this run is even more dangerous looking than the 12z thru 72 hr, with our trough over New England lifting out faster and downstream s/w ridge over Texas intensifying.
 
This sounding near Atlanta is stupid. The one nitpick I have is the piss poor low-level lapse rates of 5-5.5 C/km, you really want this to be closer to at least 6.5-7C/km or so for tornadoes and to maximize low-level stretching. Other than that, the environment is insane, 100 knots of deep layer shear...


1586327235193.png
 
I'd hedge by bets on this slower/more amped trend in our upper low over the Desert Southwest probably being unfinished. I'd almost exclusively lean on the slower/amped Euro/UKMET solutions for overall synoptic-scale evolution & timing for this event because the GEFS, GFS, & NAM are going to remain completely lost for a few more days.

ecmwf-ens_z500a_wus_fh72_trend.gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
I'd hedge by bets on this slower/more amped trend in our upper low over the Desert Southwest probably being unfinished. I'd almost exclusively lean on the slower/amped Euro/UKMET solutions for overall synoptic-scale evolution & timing for this event because the GEFS, GFS, & NAM are going to remain completely lost for a few more days.

View attachment 38651
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That would allow Carolina alley to get in on this one
 
RAH taking the heavy rain route with no mention of severe around here. Probably not a bad idea at this point, especially if the main low continues to trend north and west of here.
 
Rain Cold said:
RAH taking the heavy rain route with no mention of severe around here. Probably not a bad idea at this point, especially if the main low continues to trend north and west of here.
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Well if we keep ticking NW, severe will definitely become the main concern over heavy rain. (minus along the warm front)
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
That would allow Carolina alley to get in on this one
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Yeah, we gotta keep a close eye on the timing & amplitude of this upper low the next few days, both a slower & more amped upper low would delay the timing into the afternoon on Monday in the Carolinas, we're probably about 9-12 hours too fast on the Euro. Not even worth looking at the GFS for this unless you like watching a train wreck unfold in real-time.
 
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