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Miserable March

Webberweather53 said:
Just in case you weren’t sure yet that this was arguably one of if not the worst winter ever (in terms of the lack of cold + snow)...
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Good to know that it’s not just us down here people who should be getting feet of snow are getting shafted this winter... sounds like a dud all around .. an anomaly... let’s reset next year and go for gold
 
My business trip changed from Huntsville to Clayton Ga. So I'll be in Clayton Wednesday and Thursday. I'm seeing some snow showers Wednesday night into Thursday for up there
 
GaWx said:
Needless to say, I haven’t been thrilled with the warmer trends (toward a -PNA) in the ensembles for early March. Also, after 3 of 5 quite cold early March SE runs of the GFS (18Z Thu, 12Z Fri, 18Z Fri), none have been near as cold since. However, the 12Z CMC is still quite cold. :) ;)


Hopefully this warmer trend will reverse so that Majestic March can live up to its name. I don’t want to have to change it to Miserable March lol.
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Probably a transient warmup before some more cold shots after winter weather threats have passed.


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Euro looking much better it may try and do something tonight ... looks like energy is diving in further west hopefully making enough room for a storm to wrap up for us
 
I'm really interested in the Wednesday/Thursday little system for the fact that I'll be up there in north east GA. Nothing more than snow showers, but gefs is showing accumulation
 
Although the 11-15 day period (3/4-8) still is pretty mild on the GEFS/EPS (I'm still hoping for a colder change before that period gets here), I was quite elated by the 0Z GFS/Euro suites, which are significantly colder in the SE 2/29-3/4 vs the runs from 12 hours earlier. Hopefully this will trend even colder. But even if not, we're looking at quite a cold 4.5 day period (2/27-3/2 AM) as well as a very legit wintry precip threat for somewhere in the SE.

How cold does the 0Z GFS have KATL/KSAV for 2/27-3/1, for example? The 4 days average 39/44, which is a whopping 11/12 BN for the period as well as 4/5 below the coldest Jan days' normals of the winter! So, welcome to January!

Also, although no GFS has returned to the very cold March 4-6+ that 3 runs had, I see that the 0Z CMC is stubbornly hanging on to just that idea with very strong western ridging. I mean that model still has the very cold 2/27-3/2 AM but it then has a new Arctic high plunging down 3/4, which would means it has virtually no break in the cold. The CMC has not backed down an iota over the last few days on this idea. I wonder what it keeps seeing and what those 3 GFS runs were seeing in having that strong western ridging. I wish the CMC were a better model and that I could trust it instead of it being a weenie model. But I am hopeful that it is somehow onto something no other current model can see and that we'll see the very cold GFS runs for 3/4-6 return soon as that period is still far enough out for much uncertainty. Note that the current cold snap and the one from earlier in the month that gave the Midwest its coldest of the season were not even showing up til within 7-10 days. We now are in a pattern of getting cold snap after cold snap that don't show up til pretty close in. March 4-6 is still 10-12 days away.
 
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Look out, folks, the 6Z GFS may have something very interesting later in this run. Note the even colder and stronger second sfc high coming down and the shortwave trough axis setting up further west thus inducing moister WSW to SW flow!

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And look at this!

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GaWx said:
Wow, look how far south the 0.1" mean goes (FL/GA border, a rarity for the mean). Does anyone have the individual members? modernweenie

Meanwhile, here's the 6Z GFS clown. Note that this doesn't include amounts under 0.5". Is the 6Z the new Happy Hour?

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Webberweather53 said:
0z EPS and GEFS ?

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The GEFS & EPS generally support a storm around day 6-7, if we can get these wavelengths to shorten a bit and have these trough axis shift towards the TN or MS valley with this orientation, we're really gonna have something on our hands here. Verbatim, with this look, we still might be able to sneak something out of it. Still more than enough time to make some synoptic-scale adjustments and get the pattern we want.

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Looking upstream, I think these are the three areas to keep a close eye on to see what energy they give off and how they evolve/interact over time:

7BCA9AF2-82DB-466F-ABC9-0D7AE3B479F0.jpeg

The jet stream seems to be supportive of the changes we’re seeing... I wonder if that streak over the Atlantic will eventually support a nice surface low

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Building on what people have already said about the 6z GEFS, some of those members are coastals (that big storm on e14 is from a different time point):

B8429409-CC07-475A-AC11-79B46EB2397E.jpeg
 
What a look inside day 10. Not sure about the EPS
GEFSSE_prec_snens_228.png
 
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