This storm reminds me of several fundamental things that tend to get overlooked in the excitement of the lead-up to the event. There is an almost overabundance of model output, with no shortage of snowfall maps.
The things that I believe are important to be kept top of mind are:
1) In most cases, the lowest snowfall map is going to be closer to reality. I mean, there are instances where that isn't the case. But more times than not, the higher end maps dont verify.
2) The HrrrrrR is always too slow moving the snow out.
3) Snow can accumulate on a warm surface and during the daytime and with temps above freezing. But as James pointed out, the accumulation process is less than efficient.
4) Warm noses usually over perform. It didn't today, but that's not usually the case.
5) Bashing the NWS or conservative media outlets is usually foolish. Sometimes they get it wrong. But they also have a greater responsibility than we - we who have the freedom to go balls to the wall for max snow in a less than ideal setup.
6) If we don't have a strong set of convergent elements for a winter storm, then going for the high end snow totals is unwise. Today, for example, was a good example of this. That's not to say you can't get a big snow, but the odds aren't in your favor.
7) It's hard to snow a lot in the SE.
The things that I believe are important to be kept top of mind are:
1) In most cases, the lowest snowfall map is going to be closer to reality. I mean, there are instances where that isn't the case. But more times than not, the higher end maps dont verify.
2) The HrrrrrR is always too slow moving the snow out.
3) Snow can accumulate on a warm surface and during the daytime and with temps above freezing. But as James pointed out, the accumulation process is less than efficient.
4) Warm noses usually over perform. It didn't today, but that's not usually the case.
5) Bashing the NWS or conservative media outlets is usually foolish. Sometimes they get it wrong. But they also have a greater responsibility than we - we who have the freedom to go balls to the wall for max snow in a less than ideal setup.
6) If we don't have a strong set of convergent elements for a winter storm, then going for the high end snow totals is unwise. Today, for example, was a good example of this. That's not to say you can't get a big snow, but the odds aren't in your favor.
7) It's hard to snow a lot in the SE.
