MichaelJ
Member
Here is what GSO/W-S is showing. Very little of anything except snow.
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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm
- Thread starter Six Mile Wx
- Start date
Here is a map I found of dew points. Is that CAD forming already?
It's far more subdued on the front end and really highlights a single band that gets going later tomorrow afternoon as the sfc low gets going
If this continues it should be interesting to see what solutions we see in the short range high res models as the initialize based on current conditions
WxBlue
Meteorologist
Historically peak positive AO, at that...
iGrey_X
Member
That is absolutely CAD showing up in the upper atmosphere.
(almost)Clear skies and 41 degrees. It would be great to get to freezing, but just to have temps in the 30s for 14 hours or so will do wonders for the ground temps.
Cary_Snow95
Member
43/40 in Cary currently. Temp dropped 3 degrees In last 20 minutes
Jessy89
Member
WWA now out for Surry/Wilkes for 2”. Let’s hope the dry cold north/east winds don’t eat away at precip.
iGrey_X
Member
Well considering even the HRRR is initializing 7 degrees too high for DP, these things absolutely count. It can beat back the warm nose just enough. Especially since I think the NAM is a little TOO amped up as well. You couple those 2 things together and it can only help.
It would likely keep surface temps cooler but wouldn't stop a warm nose. In February 2015, RDU reported sleet in the upper teens because the warm nose was so strong.
Looking forward to the 0z upper air data from Nashville, in particular temps at 850mb.
Six Mile Wx
Member
Of note: The models have been calculating what’s going to happen but the next runs will be from what’s actually happening in the forecast areas
Six Mile Wx
Member
18z Euro
NCSNOW
Member
Stars out back this way. Great radiational cooling underway. Yall should clear soon
18z Euro was identical.
Here are comparisons of the 18z NAM and 18z Euro at hour 27, 30, 33. Let's see how this lines up tomorrow. I prefer the juiced up NAM's but means some are toeing the line.
Here are comparisons of the 18z NAM and 18z Euro at hour 27, 30, 33. Let's see how this lines up tomorrow. I prefer the juiced up NAM's but means some are toeing the line.
NCSNOW
Member
Thought Raleigh was a lock, guranteed nada.. you guranteed
Stormlover
Member
got that for a little farther west?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Once you remove the spurious boundary layer issues w/ the HRRR, and pay close attention to this melting layer bright band on its forecast reflectivity output (which is basically where the rain-snow line would be), I'm definitely a fan of where it keeps putting this bright band (which I've circled in white) in the SW piedmont of NC and extreme upstate SC at the start of the event when our air mass is most marginal/least favorable for snow. Everything north of that would be falling as snow, to the south would be rain. Definitely suggests more snow for the GSP-CLT corridor
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Clay
Member
How much at BNA?
Nice widespread 2-4” event. Been awhile since we’ve seen one of those.
I appreciate all the maps everyone makes, but this is my favorite. I like the distribution and amounts.
Shaggy
Member
Would this be a situation where you look at the low placement and meet in the middle for a blend or do you think the nam is right that far north with low placement?
I think the NAM's are a little over amped but I also think the Euro precip shield will be shifted NW more and thus could bring higher totals down I-40 corridor.
BackThePack
Member
I've watched it rain at 22f before. Warm noses eat CADs for breakfast/lunch/dinner. CAD is terrible for snow.
I was wondering if that was bright banding or the model trying to enhance precip along the 850mb convergence
iGrey_X
Member
That’s 11am-Noon timeframe and already has the line below 85. This is a warm biased model especially at this range so this has my attention.
Dawgdaze22
Member
Because that line should only get lower throughout the day? Technically speaking?
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FamouslyHot
Member
Reason being is that CAD events are caused by cold air being trapped by the mountains, leaving a shallow cold layer. Perfect opportunity for a warm nose to leave you with freezing rain.
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BackThePack
Member
All it wants is some Namned respect! This time tomorrow, we find out if the NAM is new winter weather royalty or not.
iGrey_X
Member
It should. That line has already set up in northern Union county, the Roebuck and woodruff areas of Spartanburg county, back towards Simpsonville and extreme NE Anderson county. That’s a very good sign from this look.
Oconeexman
Member
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I support this analysis! Will be interesting which mesoscale model handles this the best. I'm sure it will differ from area to area.
It's interesting the ARW cluster has been the weaker cluster consistently the past few days. It seems in previous winter events it's always been the most stout and the NMB was more conservative.
Cadi40
Member
Webber, what does this mean in simpler terms? Are you saying this is where the rain/snow line may set up or are you saying Charlotte may be under one of the heavier bands?