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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

metwannabe said:
How many times have we seen overrunning precip come in earlier and heavier?! That is some insane lift l, hope you get crushed
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Almost every time. It’s one thing that usually overpeforms (like warm noses).

I think your question was rhetorical, though. :)
 
SD said:
This is how you get close enough to smell the rain but have mashed potatoes fallingView attachment 35376
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I like that, Mashed Potatoes falling.

Highway 64 corridor from Murphy to Manteo. Jackpot zone would be somewhere from Mocksville out to the obx, thats a great line and any where 30 miles north to 40 miles south, espeacilly piedmont into coastal plain region should lollipop the highest.
 
WxBlue said:
I might be too bullish with this forecast, but someone had to give it a shot over these conservative local mets. Posting this onto my Facebook page for family and friends was terrifying.


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Not bad. I would maybe back the 2-4 further west a bit Charlotte to Greensboro and I still would watch the Hwy 74 corridor east of Charlotte for higher amounts if the deform band sets up right. Overall I could see this map being close
 
Looks to be the biggest problem on Euro is the arrival of colder air, but could be faster with the system or something like that.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Well the professor up at Appalachian State sounds bitter. Ray told everyone he won’t be going higher than a dusting to 1” because of “how this winter has gone”. Goes on to say to keep your expectations low so you won’t be disappointed. If you don’t believe me go read his forecast for Boone. Seems a bit foolish without a science reasoning to let the public think for themselves. I guess he has no care for student safety.
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I read his page frequently. He’s thrown that out a lot this winter...and January was not kind to Avery county. Moisture might certainly be a problem up that way
 
Decided to drop 6-8" zone in eastern NC for now. One of my met friends pointed out about the speed of jet streak making the storm move through rather fast.
 
WxBlue said:
I might be too bullish with this forecast, but someone had to give it a shot over these conservative local mets. Posting this onto my Facebook page for family and friends was terrifying.

EDIT: I decided to drop 6-8" zone in eastern NC for now with my social media posts.


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Nice. I think the 6.to 8 line will spread a little NW into Wake, too.
 
Shaggy said:
Is it worth it to go back to the previous runs of the euro from last week that all showed the bigger totals to see how they match up now with the Nam? The euro has been locked on a shutout since then but it did show outputs similar to what the nam has in the long range.
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This is the BIG forecast snowfall the Euro showed last week:

EURO_TotalSnowKuchera_NC_2020-02-13_00Z_FHr240_WB.png
 
SnowNiner said:
I'm going to need to it fold alot more than that. That's still pretty pathetic if I'm comparing it to the nam, and even the gfs at this point.
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Why? It has the worst verification scores at off all the big models. I mean it could be on to something, but at this point I am starting to lose respect for the Euro. If it ends up being 100% correct, verbatim, I will be horrifically shocked at this point.
 
It seems like with the call maps popping up everywhere, everyone is discounting the nam with the very low totals for the clt area/southern piedmont.
 
ryan1234 said:
Why? It has the worst verification scores at off all the big models. I mean it could be on to something, but at this point I am starting to lose respect for the Euro. If it ends up being 100% correct, verbatim, I will be horrifically shocked at this point.
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Who told you that the Euro has the worst verification scores of all the global models? Incorrect.
 
Shawn said:
Who told you that the Euro has the worst verification scores of all the global models? Incorrect.
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It didn't fair to well with the GA system. And I have seen the verification on this site many times. I am not trying to be difficult, but it's a little irritating that people on all these boards jump down your throat, if you have a different opinion or view. I love everyone on this board and hate that there are people who are reluctant to post because of the fear of being chastised. I came over here from Amerianwx because I was told this board was more pleasant and people didn't play favorites. I am an amateur, at best. Which is why I come here. I've learned a lot on these boards. I respect and appreciate everyone's views.
 

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WxBlue said:
I actually live in Zebulon/Middlesex area so I'm right there with you, dude. Super excited about this one.
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So your the yankee with the New Hampshire plates and the terrible driving ? Just kidding , in all seriousness it’s odd to see our area be the jackpot I’m used to seen Raleigh and Cary with 2-3 inches more than us .
 
That SREF - ARW above is exactly what I'm seeing on local news around here with the RPM stuff. Now wouldn't that be something for a lot of people who feel like they're out? ATL, especially?

Something to keep an eye on. I know one thing for sure, the global modeling won't handle temperatures as well as the short range guidance.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Definitely not gonna fall for the SREF....even NAM isn't that excited for my backyard and that's the most amped model.
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This may be a repeat on for north Georgia. It came down to the last minute with the last storm. It’s gonna be fun watching this storm evolve.
 
Anyone know what the soundings were 48 hours out on the last storm for far north metro ATL?


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18z EPS specifically for NC
76def3ae7bdc0d58db2b72d19f005d6e.jpg


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Shawn said:
That SREF - ARW above is exactly what I'm seeing on local news around here with the RPM stuff. Now wouldn't that be something for a lot of people who feel like they're out? ATL, especially?

Something to keep an eye on. I know one thing for sure, the global modeling won't handle temperatures as well as the short range guidance.
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All it takes is the warm nose to not show up to the show or show up weak for everything to change. Fingers crossed we see a good storm, but I won't hold my breath. IF it occurs, at least FFC is ahead of the game by watching it.
 
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