To keep this winter return party going while they’re remaining cold, here’s some more weenie maps from the latest CFS (6Z), the most accurate model ever (I don’t want to hear about any cold bias modernweenie
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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age
- Thread starter Ilovesnow28
- Start date
I’ll join you in here Larry. Looking like a decent window of opportunity going into early March..To keep this winter return party going while they’re remaining cold, here’s some more weenie maps from the latest CFS (6Z), the most accurate model ever (I don’t want to hear about any cold bias modernweenie
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Thor
Member
Is that the donnado?
olhausen
Member
I accidentally left out the word March Which is a pretty big mistake. I meant to say March snows are not uncommon in Middle and northern Tennessee. And yes we actually got 2 snow storms that January in less then a week up here. One was 4 inches and the other was about 3 and half. Snow storms of at least 1 inch are almost a guarantee every winter at least once per season up here on the highland rim.
The 12Z EPS maintains the cold for the end of Feb and start of Mar although it suggests the cold may not last long. Hopefully either that will change being that that is two weeks out or any letup in cold would be short lived. Regardless, enjoy this pretty pic (blue is my favorite color):
ajr
Member
I know eyes are elsewhere this evening, but the following weekend we have another shot of cold coming through.
GEFS:
GEPS:
GEFS:
GEPS:
The 18Z CFS insists that groundhog stew may need to be made based on the earlier month snow, the upcoming snow threat/cold, and these March maps, which verbatim would mean the coldest Mar 1-19 since 1998 and 1993. Yes, I know it is a cold biased model (I constantly harp on that), but it did very well with the cold November and I've been thinking cold dominating in and near then based on analogs/teles. So, I don't think it is clueless this time. Regardless, it is winter dream time...check out those beautiful tall western N.A ridges on the 2 H5 maps! Furthermore, note the moist split flow on the first H5 map and the resultant precip on the very last map!
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Got a decent t'storm this morning between 3am and 4am. It's been a steady moderate in since then.
SPC has issued a marginal risk for severe weather today as well.
SPC has issued a marginal risk for severe weather today as well.
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NoSnowATL
Member
The real question is who wants more cold rain in March? I would much rather have a early spring and dry out some.
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Ilovesnow28
Member
I agree it's bad enough that some folks still haven't had a winter storm or even cold temps the theme this winter has been consistent rain with above normal temps... So far the average here alone for February has been running 10 plus degrees above normal
I just want cold, period. There hasn't been nearly enough of it. We've had spring most of the winter. Even when you got your snow the cold was fairly marginal. Now it is winter's turn it appears, which would be good for peaches and some control on bugs among other things. Speaking of winter coming there's this from Maxar this morning
"Forecast Trends Colder; Model Ranges
Significant cold changes are made to the forecast since Friday, with the period from February 18-March 1 gaining +29.9 GWHDDs. For comparison, the Euro EN gained +20.3 GWHDDs since its 0z run on Friday for the February 18-29 period while the GFS EN gained +21.2. The +GLAAM contributes to the colder changes, as does stronger ridging into the Gulf of Alaska in both the 6-10 and 11-15 Day periods (i.e. +TNH, -EPO). In total, the next 15 days are forecast at 404.7 GWHDDs, which is higher than normal (10-year is 380.3; 30-year is 385.6)."
"11-15 Day Model Biases vs. Roll Forward
As discussed above, the forecast underwent major cold changes versus Friday’s outlook, particularly in the late 6-10 and early 11-15 Day period (Friday’s data goes through today’s Day 12). These changes account for not only the cold changes seen within the models in the last few days, but also a reduction in the influence that we have been giving to model biases in the last several weeks. We’ve discussed the models’ significant cold biases at length throughout much of the winter, and when looking at the past 30 days that bias is still quite evident. However, while still present, the bias has been reduced in the last 10 days, and our forecasts have been overcompensating and verifying too warm. Further warm verifications are likely, given how models are rolling forward. For today’s 1-5 Day period, the Euro was substantially warmer across the eastern half when the period was 11-15 Days out, with more mixed results progressing the 11-15 Day forward to the 6-10 Day."
And wow, look how cold the 12Z GFS is for late Feb/early March! Freeze to Hogtown and below there (@pcbjr )
Edit: 12Z GFS says freezes KATL 2/28-3/3 along with 3/5 and one other next week! That would be 5 in a row and 7 on the 12Z. They've only had 8 at KATL all winter to date!
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LickWx
Member
Look, march averages in the 60s for this entire board, down south where you are it averages in the 70s! Point is a cold march would mean an extremely long winter and more rainy 50 degree days here and for you, it will probably be in the 60s, so not exactly cold, just below average. Same weather we had in November, December, January, February, and now possibly March! That's 5 months of this crap I call out! let it get dry and sunny, besides March has been mostly below average last 10 years now let's change it up.
tennessee storm
Member
You want cold rain ... may be time move Seattle
1. Most indications are that the longest BN period of the winter so far is coming regardless of what you, me, or anyone else wants.
2. It wouldn't mean an extremely long winter when winter has hardly existed.
3. The 12Z GFS has some highs even way down here in the subtropics as low as high 40s. March can get and has gotten pretty nippy even down here, especially first half. It has ATL highs as low as low 40s (with 30s near the end of Feb).
4. I'd rather have more highs in the 60s than 70s here in March. The cooler the better. It doesn't have to be downright cold for me to like lower temps. And by the way, normal highs here in early March are still down into the 60s rather than 70s.
5. Regarding the last 10 March's, RAH has had only 4 BN and the 10 together have averaged right at normal.
6. It is interesting that you're complaing now when you have a high threat for snow in just 2 days.
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tennessee storm
Member
Yeah 110 agree with u. Enough of this crap winter fest
LickWx
Member
I will disagree on one thing here, winter has very much existed, just because we aren't well below average doesn't mean winter didn't come. Winter is the season of coolest temps, not the season of below average. I never understood the whole, winter isn't here if it's well above average. Raleigh has had a winter season more akin to Columbia SC or even Augusta Ga this year, to someone from there if they were to spend the winter here it would feel very much like winter. If winter is only when it's below-average then ill be darned because winter is quite the rare season. If November-March all average the same then winter has been long lol! I don't care if it meant Dec-Feb were above and Nov-March well below to achieve that, it is 5 months of the year's coolest weather.
Heres Raleighs March departure from Avg 2010-2019... -0.5 so March has definitely been cooler than it has been warm.
NoSnowATL
Member
I don’t. That’s why I said Who. I hate cold rain.
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So nobody wants to talk about this? 