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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
IFF we get this storm to work out, I expect a sharp cutoff to the north. Once this thing gets into the Atlantic and forms a low it may be able to throw some precip back into the Carolinas but if that thing pops too late someone could be left out with a setup like this.
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Are you saying we could possibly see the unheard of south of 85 cut off? If this happened I would brag to my friends north of 85 that always laugh at me when I get shutout
 
I sure do hope we get something from the overrunning setup. I'm not sure about the overrunning yet but I'm getting a wide right vibe on the following coastal regardless of what happens with the overrunning system. Just a hunch from looking at the recent model guidance. Normally, I would be ok with suppression at this range but I don't feel that way lately. What's up with all the wide rights the last few winters?! Seems like we've gone from a general NW trend to an OTS trend. Of course, I don't want either one: dry vs. cold rain.
 
NoSnowATL said:
Made this for my wife for Valentine’s Day, she has been wanting a table like this forever. Only took me 2 months of “ working late” to finish. I might get a NICE thank you tonight
a479814532a42a71e3fed4221fd514eb.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Make one for my wife and I'll let you stay here for the upcoming blizzard
 
Good try, folks. It's set in stone now. 6 to 7 days out. Storm cancel. No way the models can change again. We have never seen the Euro show a storm about a week out, only for it to look bad, and then come back good again a few days later. Never. Better luck next time.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Good try, folks. It's set in stone now. 6 to 7 days out. Storm cancel. No way the models can change again. We have never seen the Euro show a storm about a week out, only for it to look bad, and then come back good again a few days later. Never. Better luck next time.
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Who absolutely cancelled the storm? Who? Where did anybody say this one is over, cancel, done... find the post. I'll wait
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
The energy we are talking about that forms this storm still hasn’t even formed yet .. we will have absolutely no idea what the final outcome is at this range when that is the case .. there’s little to no sampling being done on it yet and the models will continue to flip flop until we get a definitive piece of energy formed and modeled
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Well, that about covers most of the comments that are always posted when something like this happens. It’ll make its own cold.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Euro has precip breaking out 125 miles south of other guidance and everybody dives head first off the cliff at D6. Lol “Back in my day” this was completely fine. The storm signal is still there and it’s still strong enough to be a threat. Even on the less than ideal Euro run. If I were in CAE I would be rooting for something in between the GFS and Euro.
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Maybe I'm missing something here.... but what exactly constitutes someone diving off the cliff? Just because we don't like the trend or even if we say "we're losing our storm" that's not cliff diving, that's just stating what the current modeling is showing. Man you calling others out for cliff diving, now I've seen everything.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I would be thrilled with that look even if we were only 2-3 days out. If the synoptic pattern remains largely the same, overrunning setups in the SE US are very notorious for ticking NWward & trending stronger all the way down to the last minute and busting high for precip (& snow if it's cold enough)

Aside from last week's winter storm, February 11, 2014 is another classic, recent example. Most of southern NC was forecast to see 1" maybe 2", ended up w/ nearly 4" at my house in Cumberland County and New Bern picked up 10"



View attachment 34321

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Here's the 500mb vort map the morning this storm started. Shortwave hanging back over the SW US, northern stream wave digging into the Lakes & New England w/ deep layer westerly flow at 500mb. Hardly the most obvious winter storm look but it produced big time over parts of southern NC. Light-moderate snow fell all day, and it was all snow start to finish in Fayetteville.


View attachment 34324
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You can see my concern right? Lol :D
 
metwannabe said:
Maybe I'm missing something here.... but what exactly constitutes someone diving off the cliff? Just because we don't like the trend or even if we say "we're losing our storm" that's not cliff diving, that's just stating what the current modeling is showing. Man you calling others out for cliff diving, now I've seen everything.
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lol I’m not calling anyone out specifically. You can just feel when the collective mood is caving and I sometimes feel the need to reassure those that might not know how to read a weather map like you or I that everything is still ok ?? The towel still needs to be in your back pocket at this point!
 
Euro member 8 has a good storm for me. And the rest have virtually nothing. ?
 
Somebody kill this winter and put it out of it's misery please.

I need to get off the internet so I'm not drawn to weather models anymore. lol.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Really hope the midlands of SC get something, remember it’s been over 6-7 years for some
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You must have the wrong Midlands, lol. I picked up 2" in mid-March of 2017. We had a couple of brief periods of moderate snow in the early winter of '17 and January of 2018, but nothing of any sort of significance during those storms.

If you wanna say we're going on three years of any accumulating snow, then you'll be correct.
 
To those asking why a thread was started. There was internal talks of actually starting it today if it was still around on the modeling anyways.

The main reasoning behind this the following:
1. The threat has begun to dominate the conversation in the pattern thread.
2. Regardless of how it shakes out, it is a larger signal for a threat of some sort around the South

My Point: At least now it has it's own thread to die in, instead of cluttering up the overall February discussion.
 
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