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Wintry Winters Last Stand / March 11th-13th Winter Storm
- Thread starter Storm5
- Start date
SREF plumes increased by .02 I think its the start of a trend
Storm5
Member
I've searched every frickin model available and can't find one I like..... usually I can one to ride
My daughter is home for spring break, I think she needs to head back Sunday morning and I will follow her to make sure she gets there ok b/c if the NAM is to be believed while I get nothing Campbell University gets almost 3". Boom!
Meh their pretty anemic up this way.....
My daughter is home for spring break, I think she needs to head back Sunday morning and I will follow her to make sure she gets there ok b/c if the NAM is to be believed while I get nothing Campbell University gets almost 3". Boom!
Nothing like the snow capital of Buies Creek lol
Storm5
Member
Im still just blown away that we are going to have a system too suppressed/sheared system in mid March...maybe thats flawed logic on my part
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I finally decided to bite on the first wave and produced a preliminary probability, county-based map for NC for the monster storm this Mon/Tue. Not feeling so hot about where I put this 1-3" but I did my best lol
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I think it's a great map, I don't like it b/c both miss me altogether, but it's a very realistic call no doubt...... oh well it is what it is
Right on par to my above post, the new NAM soundings with cobb output confirm:
Mostly rain, ends as sleet/rainsnow. 0.4 total sn and 0.11 sleet.
Code:
170312/1700Z 65 03012KT 32.6F SNPL 4:1| 0.4|| 0.11|| 0.00|| 0.098 4:1| 0.4|| 0.11|| 0.00|| 1.18 43| 50| 7
170312/1800Z 66 03011KT 33.5F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 4:1| 0.4|| 0.11|| 0.00|| 1.19 80| 0| 20Mostly rain, ends as sleet/rainsnow. 0.4 total sn and 0.11 sleet.
didnt we get a big storm like 2 days before this?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
whatalife, looks like the best we can do here in Lexington is get a HWO from NOAA that mentions sleet or snow mixing with the rain. no accumulation expected. Hell, they might just not even mention it.
Well dadgum I'd be just fine with suppressed if I already had 9" on the ground.....
whatalife
Moderator
I'll ride w/the Nam/Euro and see what happens (as if I didn't already know). LOL!
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pcbjr
Member
Been on that train before, huh?
ForsythSnow
Moderator
This just got added to my forecast by FFC...
Monday Night
A chance of rain showers before 5am, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Tuesday
A chance of rain and snow showers before 8am, then a slight chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 52. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Monday Night
A chance of rain showers before 5am, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Tuesday
A chance of rain and snow showers before 8am, then a slight chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 52. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Well what do you know looks like the 18z gfs just got......................................................worse
pcbjr
Member
You are doing better than I
Sunday
Showers likely, mainly before 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 73. Calm wind becoming north 5 to 9 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Sunday Night
Showers likely, mainly after 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 55. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Monday
Showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 73. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
GFS just got weaker.... says the highest peaks in the Apps might get a couple of inches if they are lucky.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
The entire evolution of this system is just something crazy. Look at where it started, and now we may be looking at some token flakes. I would place more of a hope in this second system, if it happens, and doesn't go north.
olhausen
Member
I'm just about to put up my white flag. Almost.
Storm5
Member
Nws Nashville going less than an inch for most of its CWA
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Storm5
Member
Don't put false hope in the second system it phases too late for the SE . I could see western North Carolina getting in if things go perfect but outside of there maybe a token flurry
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pcbjr
Member
Pardon the lack of comprehension here; been doing the lawyer thing all day and have had but a minute here and a minute there to look at models - and no time to study and/or digest them; weren't there 3 possible systems, with the 3rd one possibly being the strongest of the three and not supposed to even get sampled until today and not arrive anywhere in the vicinity until late week? Or was that a dream I had last night? Is the moan about the short term (this weekend) or looking throughout next week?
Best chances for AL, GA, SC were the Sunday wave. The stronger system behind it could do something for Western NC. Anything else, meh.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Holy cow, the GFS is so weak with the first system it's basically token flakes even in the area that gets decent snow (due to it being March). South Carolina may see a token couple hours of snow here.
olhausen
Member
It's pretty crazy if you look at the 00z Gfs starting on Wednesday, and then look at each consecutive run after that and slowly watch as the system gets weaker and weaker. Really what's the point in looking at models if they can't even give you a realistic outlook anywhere near close to reality only 2 days out from the event. Of course this is just frustration setting in and I'll be just as big of a sucker when the next fantasy storm shows up.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Congrats MA/NE. You win, with the second wave.
pcbjr
Member
Thanks. Man! You've narrowed my studying considerably - and after today, that is a much appreciated thing!
EDIT: ...and after this week ...
GeorgiaGirl
Member
The NAM may not be right. That's the risk with it. I think in its later range, it strings out the precip too much. It did with the last serious threat. This really might just be token flakes...