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Wintry February 7-8 Winter storm

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Temps on the NAM look to be closer to reality in most places this run compared to last run. Still slightly too warm but much closer
 
I think this it's going to over perform. I'm predicting the snow will last 6 hours. The snow will be heavy and wet, flakes the size of quarters/half dollars, they will stick to everything. Some trees will come down due to the weight of the snow on the trees as well as the ground being saturated from the recent rainfall. Road conditions will be bad just north of Atlanta, north and along I-85/985 up into the mountains. This event is going to be a thumper that's going to drop heavy snow within hours. Many will be surprised.
 
Clem282340 said:
do you think the upstate can get a quick 2 inches out of this little system
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I don’t know about that much but I don’t think that it will be all rain like the Hrrr says. Temps on it seem to be too warm at initialization and those few degrees will make a big difference
 
A couple of things I’m observing while starting to nowcast this event before I head to sleep for 4 hours probably lol...

1. Precip is already developing in MS and steadily developing in Alabama as well .. most model guidance even the HRRR and NAM don’t have precip in this area and don’t develop it until a couple hours from now???

2. our temperature in Charlotte has reached 28 degrees so far tonight and all model guidance including HRRR and NAM have us gettjng our coldest tonight at 30-31

BIG TAKEAWAY: this has all the hallmarks of an over preforming system .. precip already developing and moving East tells me we probably are going to be seeing precip arrive much quicker(per usual these type of busting events)AND temperatures are already way colder than modeled so when precip arrives I think most will be seeing snow and anyone with the heavy rates will see the accumulation (per these busting type events) .. will be curious to see how “weak” the heavy bands truly get as they head into NC
 
Special weather statements issued for Spartanburg west in the upstate. For light snow with possible dustings
 
What does it mean now that they issued a winter weather warning? Heavier snow? Higher likelihood of snow?
 
Dawgdaze22 said:
What does it mean now that they issued a winter weather warning? Heavier snow? Higher likelihood of snow?
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It’s different everywhere. Criteria is lower in Georgia compared to here in Wilkes. But means better chance of snow and I would guess criteria down there is 2” or so. Some areas in Texas would not issue nothing for snow totals that low where they have more equipment to remove off snow off roads.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
It’s different everywhere. Criteria is lower in Georgia compared to here in Wilkes. But means better chance of snow and I would guess criteria down there is 2” or so. Some areas in Texas would not issue nothing for snow totals that low where they have more equipment to remove off snow off roads.
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Texas? Maybe Michigan lol
 
With the moisture arriving earlier than predicted will give us some cloud cover before the sun is up too long and will keep temps a little lower.
 
Congrats to those in NE GA under a warning. That’s awesome. Precip looks to be over an hour faster than modeled by the NAM. Almost two. Draw your own conclusions, but I say “incoming” for areas even further east into SC.
 
My temps are running about 2-3 degrees colder than GSP is forecasting. Even with models like hrrr and rap showing rain I feel like this going to be a bust for GSP in some areas especially in the upstate as both models are initializing too warm.
 
I'm not sure how likely or realistic this scenario is, but models have hinted at a possible on-situ cold air damming developing a weak HP along NE GA/NW SC. If it occurs that could potentially play a monkey wrench in how things develop and evolve.
 
Snowflowxxl said:
Latest HRRR FWIW... this is pretty much what I expect across the board.
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Keep expectations low and then you can be real happy when it over-performs. Got a feeling that this map is going to bust too low. Woke up to 24 degrees and clear here. Wasn't expecting to get that cold.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Keep expectations low and then you can be real happy when it over-performs. Got a feeling that this map is going to bust too low. Woke up to 24 degrees and clear here. Wasn't expecting to get that cold.
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Thats what I am doing. I am at the point where I would just be happy so see some flakes fly in the daylight.
 
Looking to see where the heaviest rates set up, might have to go over to Clayton Ga for some snow wheeling if we can get something to stick! Wish the mountains were getting a foot, that’d be fun on a day off of work!
 
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