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Wintry February 7-8 Winter storm

Weatherlover92 said:
Don't think I've seen this posted before during winter weather, but this a current map of the max wetbulb temp. Of course it's straddling just barely south of the I-20 corridor in GA.
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Good map. This will definitely be important going forward with boundary layer temps. I'm currently at 30.4 with a WB of about 29. Hoping to drop a couple of more degrees at least (there should still be some CAA at this point). Remember that 2M temps usually rise (sometimes dramatically) as soon as clouds come in. I'm hoping that it won't be as significant this time due to the orientation of the winds and precip (more from the West instead of SW) but it's always something to keep an eye on. Plus without super dry air (DPs in the teens or single digits) there won't be much evaporational cooling, but we should also cut down on virga. We have to take our chances with the potential for colder (evap cooled) air with less available precip, or the juicer air with more borderline temps. Never easy around here.
 
Chris justice showed maps that showed pretty much no accumulation across upstate. he obviously going with the Hrrrr


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Jessy89 said:
For the upstate if this thing comes in 11-12 o clock it’s mostly rain I’m afraid. If it can get in here early we be ok. Georgia will do well though


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Bsud said:
The HRRR is only model not showing much snow for the upstate. It's on it's own so I'm not really buying it.
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This may be why it's not showing snow though. Not saying it won't but I think the HRRR is "seeing" the warmer air over the upstate by the time it gets here. Early and West is defintely better. Hopefully we all bust a little colder (and wetter) though!
 
BufordWX said:
Road temps in North GA are starting hit the freezing mark.

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I'm curious how the road conditions are going to be like when the snow starts falling tomorrow AM. I bet there is going to be some road/traffic issues. The snow is going to be heavy and wet, it wouldn't take much to create slick conditions on some road ways.
 
RGEM is beefy

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We're at 30/26 with 87 percent humidity here in NE Forsyth County, Ga. Elevation 1,217 feet (sorry, working on other stuff and haven't figured out yet how to update my profile to add my elevation).

After the past two winters, where the ONLY snow my eyes saw were 1.) A little bit of mixing a few weeks ago for all of two minutes, and 2.) The flurries this morning, I'm really hoping we verify and we get a few hours of decent snow here.

The last snow of any note I remember here was mid-January 2018, where we had an inch of dry powder during a really cold outbreak (the month before, we got eight inches in the storm three weeks before Christmas in December 2017).

We cash in with this one, and I can call it a winter and move on to baseball season (Go Braves!).

Thanks to all for the great and helpful discussion today and tonight. Good luck everybody!

--30--
 
I have 4 thermometers out now and they all are 24-25. I don't get why I seem colder than others on here. I'll take it though. It sure feels like it. NWS says 32 but I think that's from the Airport which is south. I'm north of 85. Maybe that's what it is. I wanted to be N of 85 even if it was one foot. LOL
 
I'm thinking higher elevations in N GA like Brasstown Bald and Sky Valley may overachieve... would love to be at either of those places for this event
 
LovingGulfLows said:
I'm 30/28. I wonder why my dewpoint isn't dropping more. Is this the result of a meso high or a hybrid CAD? I'm colder than Atlanta, but Atlanta has a lower dewpoint. I am 91% humidity though so that's probably contributing.
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FWIW all the weather stations in my area north ATL inside 285 are showing DPs around 28-29.
 
Dawgdaze22 said:
Really dumb question, why does dew point matter?
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Someone correct me if I’m wrong..

The dew point temp is representative of what the ambient air temp would need to be if the humidity was @ 100%.

Therefore, if you’re hoping for snow and your dewpoint is stuck well above freezing And its raining with winds out of the south, you can get along to taking care of other thangs you have to do & not hold out hope
 
This is the reason why you could be in the upper 30’s but still get snow because your dew point is in the 20’s.


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Showmeyourtds said:
Someone correct me if I’m wrong..

The dew point temp is representative of what the ambient air temp would need to be if the humidity was @ 100%.

Therefore, if you’re hoping for snow and your dewpoint is stuck well above freezing And its raining with winds out of the south, you can get along to taking care of other thangs you have to do & not hold out hope
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So my current temp is 28 and dew point is 23.. i think I’m good
 
I’m over here in Social Circle (30/28) hoping to ride the RGEM to victory!! That’s best run I’ve seen for my area (aside from earlier NAM). I’m feeling ok w temps but hoping rates can be high enough to keep column cold thru entire event. Seems like we’re usually struggling to maintain healthy precipitation east of Atl even when temps perform. I rmbr several disasters over years when lookout would get screwed by some weird anomaly over this way (near Athens). I’ve also experienced that same screw zone where precip just seems to get eaten by atmosphere and temps rebound due to lower precip rates. Anyone else familiar w the scenario I describe??
 
GaSnowhound said:
I’m over here in Social Circle (30/28) hoping to ride the RGEM to victory!! That’s best run I’ve seen for my area (aside from earlier NAM). I’m feeling ok w temps but hoping rates can be high enough to keep column cold thru entire event. Seems like we’re usually struggling to maintain healthy precipitation east of Atl even when temps perform. I rmbr several disasters over years when lookout would get screwed by some weird anomaly over this way (near Athens). I’ve also experienced that same screw zone where precip just seems to get eaten by atmosphere and temps rebound due to lower precip rates. Anyone else familiar w the scenario I describe??
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Maybe downsloping from the mountains?
 
Weatherlover92 said:
Don't think I've seen this posted before during winter weather, but this a current map of the max wetbulb temp. Of course it's straddling just barely south of the I-20 corridor in GA.

EDIT: If the 3z HRRR is right, we should start seeing precip blossoming in MS within the hour.
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That’s an important map when it comes to ice storms to determine where the southern extent of the ZR might be.
 
Dawgdaze22 said:
Really dumb question, why does dew point matter?
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A lower dew point means drier air and a lower wet bulb. A lower wet bulb is good since it means your temperature will bottom out lower when the atmosphere becomes saturated. A low dew point itself can be bad in a way, though, as it’s indicative of a dry atmosphere, and thus you could lose a lot of precip to virga before it starts to reach the ground.
 
Just got out of the theatre. Things still look solid. 4z HRRR was a shaft, but the three previous were great. Guess I need to set an alarm for 6:00am. No sleep in this saturday lol
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Maybe downsloping from the mountains?
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Maybe, I just know it’s bitten us many times. Lookout has gone off the cliff a few times over years due to this phenomena.....I rmbr once
LovingGulfLows said:
Maybe downsloping from the mountains?
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maybe that was the issue now that u mention. I remember a few occasions where it’d start out snowing at a very nice rate only to put dwn maybe a dusting then just fizzle w warming temps. I know lookout went nuts one time when we all thought we were totally dialed in and yet he, myself and a few others received a complete and total screw job. I’m not picking on lookout bc I was loosing it as well he just beat me to the post but it was an epic fail when all systems appeared to be “go” at onset. I’ve learned to never trust anything but now cast for this area. That being said, how would the winds set up re potential downslope for this event? Seems s/sw overrunning type might be better for us than a wound system w usual dry slot east of apps??
 
5z HRRR is shafts ATL pretty good. I don't really care about the models anymore lol, we will see whats its like when I wake up
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From what I’m seeing most models are initializing too warm some being as bad as 5+ degrees too warm in most areas.
 
Off to bed, but OBS from here: 30 degrees temp, DP up to 27, humidity up to 91%.

Could be a great day here 50 miles north of downtown Atlanta. Good luck to all!

--30--
 
From GSP a few minutes ago:

"All told, we are contemplating a Winter Storm Warning across the northeast GA mountains, and an expansion of the Advisory into the mountain valleys and across the western Upstate of SC. Some sort of mix mention will likely be needed in forecast out across the I-77 corridor as well, including the Charlotte metro area. "
 
bud006 said:
From GSP a few minutes ago:

"All told, we are contemplating a Winter Storm Warning across the northeast GA mountains, and an expansion of the Advisory into the mountain valleys and across the western Upstate of SC. Some sort of mix mention will likely be needed in forecast out across the I-77 corridor as well, including the Charlotte metro area. "
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it about time gsp say something about the upstate it’s go time
 
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