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Wintry Winters Last Stand / March 11th-13th Winter Storm

Classic Miller A snowfall distribution in NC, maybe a few token flakes in the Triangle, legit snows from Roxboro-Greensboro-Statesville-Hendersonville & points northwestward
 
Webberweather53 said:
Classic Miller A snowfall distribution in NC, maybe a few token flakes in the Triangle, legit snows from Roxboro-Greensboro-Statesville-Hendersonville & points northwestward
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I know that folks throw around the 1993 storm every year. Does this have that kind of potential and similar setup?
 
Rain Cold said:
Awesome! Raleigh is always too far north, south, east, or west to get any snow. Guess you don't owe me that steak now.
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I literally hate everything
ecmwf_tsnow_raleigh_18.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Classic Miller A snowfall distribution in NC, maybe a few token flakes in the Triangle, legit snows from Roxboro-Greensboro-Statesville-Hendersonville & points northwestward
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Any legitimate way that this snowfall could trend Eastward towards us?
 
Only mother nature could be so cruel, give'em the warmest February on record, throw the arctic in there for March tease them with some "close call" winter threats and laugh in their face all the way to pollen, wasp, snake and grass cutting season. I'm not bitter I promise :p
 
whatalife said:
I can only hope it continues to trend better for this area


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We want the raw NAM output. It put down 3.8 inches in CAE with the melting algorithms etc. From the data, it looks like precip is the problem.. We need it heavier for rates. NAM has it the most/heaviest. Euro gets us with moderate for like 30 minutes. lol
 
Shawn said:
We want the raw NAM output. It put down 3.8 inches in CAE with the melting algorithms etc. From the data, it looks like precip is the problem.. We need it heavier for rates. NAM has it the most/heaviest. Euro gets us with moderate for like 30 minutes. lol
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HAHA 30 minutes is better then nothing LOL


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Fear not friends according to the gefs the MA and NE get two coastal storms within a six day period. One Tuesday and the second next weekend.........poor folks


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packfan98 said:
I know that folks throw around the 1993 storm every year. Does this have that kind of potential and similar setup?
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The setup is a bit different, while we're also liable to see the coveted triple phase, it looks like this won't phase until much later near-just off the SE US coast, which essentially means the axis of snow (aside from the NC Apps) is directed further east upstream and we end up with a very, very strong nor'easter. I could definitely see in a best case scenario how RDU-CLT comes away with maybe an inch or two here but I wouldn't bet on it. Oth, if you're in the Triad, that seems like a legitimate scenario, with the potential for more. We're likely going to see the classic NW-SE Miller A piedmont gradient, with the extreme southeastern edge of the legitimate snows occurring somewhere between the Triad and RDU.

post-16475-1237236820.gif



A few good examples of how I think this could pan out distribution and amount-wise
December 18-19 2009 NC Snowmap.gif
December 29-31 1997 Snowmap NC.png
January 6-7 1996 NC Snowmap.gif
March 12-14 1993 NC Snowmap.gif
January 22-23 1987 NC Snowmap.gif
February 15 1958 NC Snow map.png
March 2-3 1942 NC Snowmap.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
The setup is a bit different, while we're also liable to see the coveted triple phase, it looks like this won't phase until much later near-just off the SE US coast, which essentially means the axis of snow (aside from the NC Apps) is directed further east upstream and we end up with a very, very strong nor'easter. I could definitely see in a best case scenario how RDU-CLT comes away with maybe an inch or two here but I wouldn't bet on it. Oth, if you're in the Triad, that seems like a legitimate scenario, with the potential for more. We're likely going to see the classic NW-SE Miller A piedmont gradient, with the extreme southeastern edge of the legitimate snows occurring somewhere between the Triad and RDU.
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Thank you very much for your analysis and analog storm scenarios. I'm just south of the Triad and am on the dividing line between the have's and have not's. That 1987 cuttoff looks rediculous! A trace to 8 inches in about 10 miles it looks like!
 
I'm still heading to Clarksville tn, 1-3 possible 2-5 with higher amounts depending on storm. Just a vacation anyways
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I'm not sure Clarksville is really a vacation, but if some of y'all are headed toward around Monteagle, I recommend checking out Jim Oliver's Smokehouse...
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I'm sorry lol, I meant I'm going to Morristown TN not Clarksville lol.
 
packfan98 said:
Thank you very much for your analysis and analog storm scenarios. I'm just south of the Triad and am on the dividing line between the have's and have not's. That 1987 cuttoff looks rediculous! A trace to 8 inches in about 10 miles it looks like!
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Yeah, you'll probably end up relatively close to the dividing line between haves and have nots. Even 10-15 miles could make the difference between nothing and 6"+ in a setup like this.
 
Why is it so hard for Wake to get more decent snow totals? You'd think it would be in the perfect location to get precip from the west or east, and far enough north to be cold enough for snow.
 
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