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Wintry Winters Last Stand / March 11th-13th Winter Storm

The high res, experimental 3km NAM also went considerably south yet again this run and blanked everyone north of Fayetteville and Charlotte including RDU and Greensboro- Winston-Salem.
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Para 12km NAM (most of this does not accumulate in sc):

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Storm5 said:
12z RHEM went south as well


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Precip a bit anemic, but i think it gets going after hour 48. Not too far off from the 12z NAM suite.
 
12z rgem lol most won't even see a white ground . This is modeled snow output not depth . So In places where it's showing 1 inch ...... not happening
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Precip doesn't start picking up until late into SC per 12z GFS. Slightly colder though.
 
There are counties now blanked in TN :(
 
Wow, I was wrong on it even being mix, SC just ends as plain rain.

No central to south TN is good to still see something but ending as a mix is going to cut totals.
 
Ew, this isn't even what sticks around, just snowfall/mix/sleet for the southern zones:

gfs_asnow_seus_10.png
 
Gonna get in here now while the getting's good with the standard "stop looking so hard at Global models now guys they always have habit of losing the details at this range"???
 
Lol light precip warm ground temps and a fast moving system . No way this verifies
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So for 12z we have: a slightly south trend again. Nam suite is just silly, rgem is colder than even NAM, but anemic on precip. Nam is known to have a precip bias, so split it, the gfs, and nam and expect a sleet/snow shower outside TN and the mountains. GG
 
4 days is too far out for a good look with a snowstorm in the SE. Should have known that the models would trend away from it within a couple of days of the storm but I guess I will never learn.
 
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mrdaddyman said:
4 days is too far out for a good look with a snowstorm around here. Should have known that the models would trend away from it within a couple of days of the storm but I guess I will never learn.
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From now on maybe we should not take any model beyond 2 days seriously.
 
malak05 said:
Gonna get in here now while the getting's good with the standard "stop looking so hard at Global models now guys they always have habit of losing the details at this range"???
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Well, they have some validity, but given the fact this storm keeps changing, I wouldn't settle on anything yet. Let's get to tomorrow and see how different it is from today. Remember, it's March. Token flakes and maybe a fast heavy snow that melts is still a win.
 
Looking over the German and Arpege models (lol), they are quite anemic with precipitation output also.

For those of you in the 850mb 0c or colder zone, but surface temps aren't too great, good luck getting any rates to change anything that falls over. Your only hope is the 12z NAM Suite. TN should do okay as long as precipitation stays together. NC Mountains too.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Well, they have some validity, but given the fact this storm keeps changing, I wouldn't settle on anything yet. Let's get to tomorrow and see how different it is from today. Remember, it's March. Token flakes and maybe a fast heavy snow that melts is still a win.
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Yeah but given the fact this has been such a horrible winter for many people, i dont think most will be satisfied with token flakes in Mid March.
 
Storm5 said:
Low gonna be west could screw the MA with precip types


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yep that clipper low that is miller b'ing to the coast is over Ohio this run..that doesn't work out well south of the Mason-Dixon
 
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