Looks pretty sufficient for early precip. It’s gaining moisture from another low. The problem would be that it’s not suppressed enough.
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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
Looks pretty sufficient for early precip. It’s gaining moisture from another low. The problem would be that it’s not suppressed enough.
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
Maybe if it weren't for that energy that's deposited in the SW that's maybe interfering...although it could still end up producing precip and be too warm.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Ends up as a decent overrunning event in the end. Not too bad.
Hm...
That was very close to a board wide snowstorm
#ThingsInferiorModelsDo
Weaker, but looks to be good for the upper south. If you are above the blue lines, it’s probably snow.
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Weaker, but looks to be good for the upper south. If you are above the blue lines, it’s probably snow.
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Snow totals.
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My guess is that you would see a SFC low in GOM and a bigger storm. However not bad look for now. Need some euro support
Only 50 zillion more runs to reel this one in: 
Interesting, the GEFS longwave pattern, looks even better this run. While some members aren’t hits, most are setup the way that I definitely see some storm from the members.
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Gefs looks silent still with the coastal, I’m honestly just interested in that at this point, everything past hour 240 is meh
I recommend checking out the ensembles if you live north of I-85. Nice look. Longwave pattern verbatim supports a storm.
It's nice to see many members showing moisture down in the Gulf as well as those members showing a well developed low. Exciting times ahead!Interesting, the GEFS longwave pattern, looks even better this run. While some members aren’t hits, most are setup the way that I definitely see some storm from the members.
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A true winter like day for everyone in the south this would make up for me in Charlotte at least for all the lost storms this storm signal and H5 pattern is getting very interesting and in a fun way
Good god this could get good really fast
Clem282340
Member
That’s an increase from 18z gefs
0Z Euro: sharper w Ridge/E trough/stronger Arctic high at 108. Let's see whether or not the coastal forms this time. Regardless, look for colder than last run then.
Edit; It didn't end up making much difference with temps and storm stayed offshore.
Edit; It didn't end up making much difference with temps and storm stayed offshore.
Last edited:
Ilovesnow28
Member
Who's ready to move to Canada
Stormsfury
Member
No mechanisms to slow the flow...
Pattern changes are handled quite poorly...
Data voids with so much energy flying around leads to vastly variant outcomes.
Chaos theory (butterfly effect)
Pattern changes are handled quite poorly...
Data voids with so much energy flying around leads to vastly variant outcomes.
Chaos theory (butterfly effect)
NCCWOP9077
Member
I still like that pattern toward the end of January on the 0z EPS. Trough over the SW US with a decent STJ signal.
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Any experts out there know if this would be at least close to blocking? I know the higher heights are further south and west than our usual west based NAO, but looks close, and wonder if it could still lead to slowing the flowI still like that pattern toward the end of January on the 0z EPS. Trough over the SW US with a decent STJ signal.
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The 6z GFS move back (slightly)towards the 18z solution (yesterday) for the day 9/10 system. But definitely not as impressive (some western Carolina ice). I would say this is still a time period to watch. It also still has the storm at day 13. So at least were getting fantasy solutions to show up (...the pattern is good).
Ilovesnow28
Member
storm looking great for the Carolinas and upper South but not so much for western areas of the southeast
Jon
Member
For a Deep South event ideally we’d want more blocking, but for NC snow events 4” or more, there’s no blocking needed as the 50-50 low takes care of that. I *think* blocking shows up in the composite for extremely big events >8-9” or so but I’d have to run them or remember.
See this composite and compare it to the GFS runs. Pretty similar. You can see during the event (right image) there’s no blocking, just a cold HP over the low and a 50-50 low in place
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New Gfs is only good news for everyone we just need a storm to be showing up we can fine tune the details as we close in the solution shown is not the show all answer in the end
Totals
Six Mile Wx
Member
6z Euro ensembles shows the first wave of cold air still on schedule to arrive Sunday afternoon in the South.
Coastal going in the wrong direction, if its gonna happen it needs to jump on the NW trend wagon today imho. It's just too suppressed and fast flow
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SnowNiner
Member
If this is how February begins, I'll be good with that....
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Totals
GFS is really honking for the 28-30 storm. So far out, though. Just wonder if it's sounding an early alarm or if it's a false alarm.
NWMSGuy
Member
Anyone have the individual GEFS members from the 06z run?
GFS not far from a much better storm. I think if the heights over the Hudson bay were to shift south, that would lead to more CAD, and more snow. This verbatim is almost a textbook setup for winter weather. While 18z had more snow, this is the best look at H5, supportive of winter weather of the 3 runs we saw something.
The December storm had this configuration, so this would be the height setup we would want to look for.
I'm still amazed by how the GFS has 3 snowy runs in a row. Hopefully this look will continue.
The December storm had this configuration, so this would be the height setup we would want to look for.
I'm still amazed by how the GFS has 3 snowy runs in a row. Hopefully this look will continue.
Agreed. However, I think this look has shown up on every ensemble run for the last 15 days.
Today's 6z 384 image:
Here's the GEFS at 384 for the 6z run on 1/9, which is as far back as I can go on TT:
Now, here's the 6z today @ 216, valid for the same time period:
Here's the 6z 384 on 1/10, which looks slightly more like today's image:
And, the 240 image from the 6z run today valid at the same time period:
I think I see a problem. I'm beginning to think that the ensembles are not quite as accurate as we want to believe.
By the time I leave work today dews will be in the 30s
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I agree. The teles has not and still do not support deep cold locking in.
Six Mile Wx
Member
Six Mile Wx
Member
It sure seems to me that after 7-10 days the Ensembles resort back to historical teleconnection probabilities of what’s supposed to happen and not real-time dynamic computations.
SnowNiner
Member
For sure we've been down this road before. Not confident it shows up but perhaps GEFS is rushing and it'll show up a bit later? Add to the fact that the EPS looks similar toward the end maybe that's a good sign (different than last time). I'm grasping i know. Stop killing my positivity vibe man. lol. Delayed but not denied I hope.
I'm just dreaming of the TPV sitting on Greenland, ridging in western/central Canada, with a 50/50 low, and the southern stream hose shooting systems across the country in the gulf. I like it.