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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

Jon said:
HM with some not so great thoughts this morning on why we’ve been stuck in these warm winters...
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It’s difficult to determine his underlying message with his tweets but none of this sounded positive and it sounded like it was “what went wrong” with this winter. Specifically the thought on the EPO and the paradigm shift. But, again that’s my interpretation and have no clue what his real intent was.
 
KyloG said:
It’s difficult to determine his underlying message with his tweets but none of this sounded positive and it sounded like it was “what went wrong” with this winter. Specifically the thought on the EPO and the paradigm shift. But, again that’s my interpretation and have no clue what his real intent was.
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He basically says Australia’s summer is during our winter. November is cooler there, so the MJO isn’t as bad through Mid-December. Although, due to GW, the Australian ocean has warmed, making the warmer phases worse, keeping us warmer during the winter. By the time it cools, we’re in late March or April.
 
Im all about punting,throwing in th he towel etc for Jan. One caveat that is preventing this is jan 2000 redux. Got about a 12 day window in a horrific pattern. I see possibility of enough pv dislodge and cold in western Canada, to hold out hope some rabbit in the hat shuffeling gets it into our side of the continent Jan 18-Jan 30. No way banking on a 180 flip and favorable pattern salvaging last 6 weeks of winter. Just a 10 to 12 day blip. Eitheir all that cold just stays out west late month and becomes stale or it moves down stream. Time will tell.
 
Question for you guys. I was hoping to head to north ga area and helen/blairsville area and do some hiking Thursday and friday. Forecast looks like crap. Is there any hope?
 
NCSNOW said:
Im all about punting,throwing in th he towel etc for Jan. One caveat that is preventing this is jan 2000 redux. Got about a 12 day window in a horrific pattern. I see possibility of enough pv dislodge and cold in western Canada, to hold out hope some rabbit in the hat shuffeling gets it into our side of the continent Jan 18-Jan 30. No way banking on a 180 flip and favorable pattern salvaging last 6 weeks of winter. Just a 10 to 12 day blip. Eitheir all that cold just stays out west late month and becomes stale or it moves down stream. Time will tell.
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KATL and KRDU both averaged MA over the 16 day period for 12/29/99-1/13/2000 (a whopping 8-9 AN or more akin to mid March). This was pretty abruptly followed by both averaging MB 1/14-2/6/2000; KRDU averaged a whopping 10 BN with only ONE day of those 24 without a freeze along with 3 different multi-inch snows! KATL averaged 7 BN with only 4 of those 24 days without a freeze and had not one but TWO major ZRs!

- Another interesting fact about 1/14-2/6/2000: this was by a good margin the coldest for this 3.5 week period since way back in 1986!! So, starting from now, you have to back to the incredibly cold 1985 to find a colder 1/14-2/6 and even that was only a little colder!

- During the very cold 1/14-2/6/00, 23 of the 24 days were inside the COD of the MJO with 18 of those 23 days inside the coldest phases (inside COD that isn't phases 4 or 5). In all fairness, however, that was also largely the case for the warm period preceding.

- A strong +AO dominated both periods although it went modestly negative 1/18-22 before going back to strong +AO.

- A strong +NAO dominated the warm period and did turn to mainly a -NAO during much of the cold period.

-There was a very strong -PNA during the warm period that also went into the first part of the cold period before going strongly +PNA last few days of Jan into early Feb.

- The warm period had a strong +EPO. This switched to a strong -EPO for the first half of the cold period followed by a switch right back to a strong +EPO for the 2nd half of the cold period.
 
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GaWx said:
KATL and KRDU both averaged MA over the 16 day period for 12/29/99-1/13/2000 (a whopping 8-9 AN or more akin to mid March). This was pretty abruptly followed by both averaging MB 1/14-2/6/2000; KRDU averaged a whopping 10 BN with only ONE day of those 24 without a freeze along with 3 different multi-inch snows! KATL averaged 7 BN with only 4 of those 24 days without a freeze and had not one but TWO major ZRs!

- Another interesting fact about 1/14-2/6/2000: this was by a good margin the coldest for this 3.5 week period since way back in 1986!! You have to back to the incredibly cold 1985 to find a colder 1/14-2/6 and even that was only a little colder!

- During the very cold 1/14-2/6/00, 23 of the 24 days were inside the COD of the MJO with 18 of those 23 days inside the coldest phases (inside COD that isn't phases 4 or 5). In all fairness, however, that was also largely the case for the warm period preceding.

- A strong +AO dominated both periods although it went modestly negative 1/18-22 before going back to strong +AO.

- A strong +NAO dominated the warm period and did turn to mainly a -NAO during much of the cold period.

-There was a very strong -PNA during the warm period that also went into the first part of the cold period before going strongly +PNA last few days of Jan into early Feb.

- The warm period had a strong +EPO. This switched to a strong -EPO for the first half of the cold period followed by a switch right back to a strong +EPO for the 2nd half of the cold period.
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I was with ya there and hoping until you said -NAO. What is that anymore in winter? We can scratch that. MJO going strongly into 5 and 6 this year when that year it was in the COD same time period. Well.... like I said earlier we would have most likely been able to see the signals at this time in 2000 of more favorable times ahead.
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
I was with ya there and hoping until you said -NAO. What is that anymore in winter? We can scratch that. MJO going strongly into 5 and 6 this year when that year it was in the COD same time period. Well.... like I said earlier we would have most likely been able to see the signals at this time in 2000 of more favorable times ahead.
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The period im referencing is post 1/20, not 1/14 like 2000. So 20 days, lets see how that period is coming into focus a week fro now, as it will start showing on the 15 day radar. Will say here where I live, we never get shut out. So always that caveat to be hopefull or more bold looking down the abysmal barrell we are out to 3rd week of this Jan.
 
FWIW the happy hour drunkard gefs members did show little more back end snow middle next weeks system. I'm still interested
 
NCSNOW said:
The period im referencing is post 1/20, not 1/14 like 2000. So 20 days, lets see how that period is coming into focus a week fro now, as it will start showing on the 15 day radar. Will say here where I live, we never get shut out. So always that caveat to be hopefull or more bold looking down the abysmal barrell we are out to 3rd week of this Jan.
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But the pattern change was earlier, 1/14, when the nonstop warmth abruptly stopped. I'm not saying any abrupt pattern change to colder would need to occur 1/14/2020 to closely replicate 2000 though. It could occur later in the month. The point of my post was to show how warm it was 12/29-1/13 (16 days) and then how cold it was immediately for such a long period, 3.5 weeks (1/14-2/6).
 
KyloG said:
yeah...if we could just get that ridge shoved over AK it would atleast dump a ton of cold hp into the conus. Op tries

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I'm banking on the pattern legitimately changing for the better once tropical forcing currently approaching the Maritime Continent passes thru the West Pacific ~ Jan 20th or so. The Pacific jet extension increase in AAM, & subsequent wave train generated by said paradigm shift would be the impetus for this ridge in the NE Pacific to break into Alaska & the Pacific side of the arctic in/around the last week of January, potentially sending us into the freezer by Jan 25-30 or so.

While it may be warm in a general sense, there could be a few transient & rather potent cold shots between now and then if we play our cards right synoptically. -EPOs are a freezer or fryer pattern in the SE US w/ rarely anything in between, likely won't be any different here.


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Webberweather53 said:
I'm banking on the pattern legitimately changing for the better once tropical forcing currently approaching the Maritime Continent passes thru the West Pacific ~ Jan 20th or so. The Pacific jet extension increase in AAM, & subsequent wave train generated by said paradigm shift would be the impetus for this ridge in the NE Pacific to break into Alaska & the Pacific side of the arctic in/around the last week of January, potentially sending us into the freezer by Jan 25-30 or so.

While it may be warm in a general sense, there could be a few transient & rather potent cold shots between now and then if we play our cards right synoptically. -EPOs are a freezer or fryer pattern in the SE US w/ rarely anything in between, likely won't be any different here.


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Its no wonder the CFS showing more nino’ish pattern with that vp plot.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I'm banking on the pattern legitimately changing for the better once tropical forcing currently approaching the Maritime Continent passes thru the West Pacific ~ Jan 20th or so. The Pacific jet extension increase in AAM, & subsequent wave train generated by said paradigm shift would be the impetus for this ridge in the NE Pacific to break into Alaska & the Pacific side of the arctic in/around the last week of January, potentially sending us into the freezer by Jan 25-30 or so.

While it may be warm in a general sense, there could be a few transient & rather potent cold shots between now and then if we play our cards right synoptically. -EPOs are a freezer or fryer pattern in the SE US w/ rarely anything in between, likely won't be any different here.


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Samesies




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KyloG said:
CFS weekly says pattern change starts after the 20th.

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Would be nice to see this generally come to fruition, a huge North Pac and Scandinavian high is usually the type of tropospheric precursor pattern that splits the polar vortex. The associated surface impacts from a sudden stratospheric warming event of this type (wave 2/ PV split) are usually felt much more quickly than wave 1 displacements & are often immediate.
 
Let’s say the MJO goes favorable in late January, what’s the fly in the ointment?
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Let’s say the MJO goes favorable in late January, what’s the fly in the ointment?
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Given the pre-existing ridge in the NE Pacific (which we didn't really have in late Dec during this most recent bout of West Pac forcing) plus a build-up of +AAM in the tropics both suggest this bout of forcing may be more efficient at dislodging the ridge into Alaska like we want to see. Synoptic-scale eddy behavior that's not predictable more than a week or so out and significant attenuation (weakening) of this Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave in the West-Central Pacific would be a couple flies in the ointment that come to my mind which may screw all of this up.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Given the pre-existing ridge in the NE Pacific (which we didn't really have in late Dec during this most recent bout of West Pac forcing) plus a build-up of +AAM in the tropics both suggest this bout of forcing may be more efficient at dislodging the ridge into Alaska like we want to see. Synoptic-scale eddy behavior that's not predictable more than a week or so out and significant attenuation (weakening) of this Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave in the West-Central Pacific would be a couple flies in the ointment that come to my mind which may screw all of this up.
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I read PSU’s writeup on the MA forum and an early January pattern such as this usually doesn’t end well. There are anonymous cases of warning criteria snowstorms for our latitude in the east during the second half of winter but they are few and far between..Also, I’m not a big believer in analogs so I don’t feel completely defeated just yet. But I’m more than halfway there. Bur what do I know, anyway
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I read PSU’s writeup on the MA forum and an early January pattern such as this usually doesn’t end well. There are anonymous cases of warning criteria snowstorms for our latitude in the east during the second half of winter but they are few and far between..Also, I’m not a big believer in analogs so I don’t feel completely defeated just yet. But I’m more than halfway there. Bur what do I know, anyway
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07. There are others and just as many that don’t flip cold.

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GaWx said:
Also, 04-05 flipped from very warm (and actually the warmest since 1975 by far for 12/29-1/13) to cold 1/14-2/6. You may want to check that one out.
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Looks like all the flips from warm to cold happens the 2nd or 3rd week in January. So given that I think I would wait to punt until at least the 20-25th timeframe.


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NoSnowATL said:
Looks like all the flips from warm to cold happens the 2nd or 3rd week in January. So given that I think I would wait to punt until at least the 20-25th timeframe.
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Indeed, ~1/16+ is still way up in the air, especially if the MJO were to get out of the Maritime Continent.

More on the severe 04-05 flip from the warmest late Dec-early Jan since at least 1974-5 to a cold last half of Jan into early Feb that included significant wintry precip:

12/29/04-1/13/2005
- a whopping +16 at KRDU and +13 at KATL, the torch of torches!
- only one freeze at KRDU and none at KATL
- all 16 days AN at both places

1/14-2/6/2005
- 7 BN at KRDU and 4 BN at KATL, about the biggest turnaround to colder since 1975 for this timeframe
- Freezes: 20 of 24 days at KRDU and 14 of 24 at KATL
- Both had significant to major ZR including the 1st major one at KATL since, you guessed it, the one in late Jan of 2000 that also produced the Carolina Crusher!! KRDU also had accumulating snow.

If I get time, I'll check the various indices for this. Or maybe someone else can chime in on the indices for then?
 
GaWx said:
Indeed, ~1/16+ is still way up in the air, especially if the MJO were to get out of the Maritime Continent.

More on the severe 04-05 flip from the warmest late Dec-early Jan since at least 1974-5 to a cold last half of Jan into early Feb that included significant wintry precip:

12/29/04-1/13/2005
- a whopping +16 at KRDU and +13 at KATL, the torch of torches!
- only one freeze at KRDU and none at KATL
- all 16 days AN at both places

1/14-2/6/2005
- 7 BN at KRDU and 4 BN at KATL, about the biggest turnaround to colder since 1975 for this timeframe
- Freezes: 20 of 24 days at KRDU and 14 of 24 at KATL
- Both had significant to major ZR including the 1st major one at KATL since, you guessed it, the one in late Jan of 2000 that also produced the Carolina Crusher!! KRDU also had accumulating snow.

If I get time, I'll check the various indices for this. Or maybe someone else can chime in on the indices for then?
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Indices for 2004-05 severe flip from major torch late Dec/early Jan to cold mid Jan to early Feb

- strong -EPO domination both periods
- strong -PNA for warm period which changed to strong +PNA for cold period
- strong +NAO warm period; weaker +NAO to sometimes neutral cold period
- strong +AO warm period; strong -AO cold period
- MJO mainly in high amp phases 4-5 in warm period; lower amp and sometimes even in COD cold period including some on the left side

So, folks, I think I've found a way better analog than 1999-2000 as regards the MJO as current is much more similar to 2004-5. However, the last reported was a solidly +EPO. It would need to switch to a solid -EPO very soon to be similar to early Jan of 2005. Note that both periods had a major switch from -PNA to +PNA.
 
2007-08 a good analog I think, just doesn't end well....

last part of Dec 2007, +AO/+NAO, Alaska in the freezer, warm east in general... 12/10/07 featured a high of 81!

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First half of January 2008. Featured more of the same, notice Scandinavia block building. This period featured monthly highs of 73 at RDU on 1/08-1/09. The first half of January featured cold shots but not super cold, warm overall. +EPO

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Then came the mid month cool down. Our friend the GOA ridge. This period featured near normal temps for RDU a few below normal days.

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But even in this period, we had a storm!

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and another!

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Last half of January....well this is awkward...that GOA ridge is still there. +AO/+NAO/-PNA

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Fab Feb 2008?

First half of Feb...oh dear lord.
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Last half. Colder, sure...but no blocking and a +NAO/+AO means near normal and some above normal days for RDU. No snow.
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You don't want to see March.

I was actually just running with this and was hoping we'd get a stormy flip late, but we didn't. We did have two storms in January though so not all is lost even if we don't get a flip to cold and blocking...

edit: just ignore the attachments at the bottom of my post I don't know what I'm doing lol
 

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CPC GEFS super ensemble. Many of the analogs we’ve been discussing. 07, 89, 06, 08


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KyloG said:
CPC GEFS super ensemble. Many of the analogs we’ve been discussing. 07, 89, 06, 08


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1988-89 is a fantastic example of this "freezer or fryer" analogy when it comes to -EPOs.

Many places in eastern NC hit 75-80F before the huge event on Feb 17-19 1989, warmed back up and nearly hit 75-80F again, only to get raked by another system a few days after that on Feb 23-24 1989.
 
Jon said:
2007-08 a good analog I think, just doesn't end well....

last part of Dec 2007, +AO/+NAO, Alaska in the freezer, warm east in general... 12/10/07 featured a high of 81!

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First half of January 2008. Featured more of the same, notice Scandinavia block building. This period featured monthly highs of 73 at RDU on 1/08-1/09. The first half of January featured cold shots but not super cold, warm overall. +EPO

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Then came the mid month cool down. Our friend the GOA ridge. This period featured near normal temps for RDU a few below normal days.

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But even in this period, we had a storm!

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and another!

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Last half of January....well this is awkward...that GOA ridge is still there. +AO/+NAO/-PNA

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Fab Feb 2008?

First half of Feb...oh dear lord.
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Last half. Colder, sure...but no blocking and a +NAO/+AO means near normal and some above normal days for RDU. No snow.
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You don't want to see March.

I was actually just running with this and was hoping we'd get a stormy flip late, but we didn't. We did have two storms in January though so not all is lost even if we don't get a flip to cold and blocking...

edit: just ignore the attachments at the bottom of my post I don't know what I'm doing lol
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Central AL had a decent snow in early March 2008. I think some places received 2-3", although my location only had 1.5" in a dandruff blizzard. I really only remember it because the day before was warm, although that wasnt why it is absolutely unforgettable to my dying day.

Edit: Never mind it actually was in January. I guess I thought it was in March due to how warm it was the day before the snow.
 
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