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Misc Fall - End of 2019 Whamby

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Phil’s storm is a rainer for southern Ontario on the 00z GFS, so yeah...Of course, I’m dumb for looking at a D11 op in the first place. :p
 
cd2play said:
What is it with everyone saying it's been a BN December? It's been not only AN, but a near TORCH!
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The last days of December will rectify that quickly!
My next 6 days are 60-67 degrees
 
Looks like winter cancel again!E0BDDBC7-62E5-4EF6-A825-06EB5AC0C682.pngE0BDDBC7-62E5-4EF6-A825-06EB5AC0C682.png
 
cd2play said:
What is it with everyone saying it's been a BN December? It's been not only AN, but a near TORCH!
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It’s been about normal to slightly above in the NC Piedmont, but the upcoming torch is about to change that.
 
You can see the TPV being pushed toward Alaska this AM (red arrows are the flow that is rolling the TPV (look in the white circle)).


But wait, what is that???

Dohhh!!??

Now I know why it's heading toward Alaska

Santa needed that extra umph to jump start his trip toward the dateline to begin delivering presents. Hopefully by the 26th it will start to roll back our way.

Made this originally to post at the other place, but thought I'd flop it down here too. Merry Christmas Eve
 
1de90d859dd74811817b403341497dab.jpg


Have fun getting snow if this happens. Looks like a familiar path too.


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NoSnowATL said:
1de90d859dd74811817b403341497dab.jpg


Have fun getting snow if this happens. Looks like a familiar path too.


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I am going to wait until January 1st or 2nd to see what the middle of January looks like. If by then it’s still the same I’ll be finding the nearest cliff.


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NoSnowATL said:
//uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191224/1de90d859dd74811817b403341497dab.jpg

Have fun getting snow if this happens. Looks like a familiar path too.
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Indeed, the last 10 years have had a significant increase in the average # of days/winter in Maritime Continent phases 4 and 5 vs what the 1980s had. Just looking at warm phase 5, during 1981-1990 the highest # of days for any one year in DJF was only 11. But during 2009-2018, the highest was 21 and 7 of the 10 years had 14+ days! So, it really looks like there is something to this research that may help explain a major reason for the SE US' warmer winters recently.

I discovered this just last month after reading what this link said:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1764-4

“Twofold expansion of the Indo-Pacific warm pool warps the MJO life cycle”
 
whatalife said:
I am going to wait until January 1st or 2nd to see what the middle of January looks like. If by then it’s still the same I’ll be finding the nearest cliff.


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I'll save you a spot!
 
GaWx said:
Indeed, the last 10 years have had a significant increase in the average # of days/winter in Maritime Continent phases 4 and 5 vs what the 1980s had. Just looking at warm phase 5, during 1981-1990 the highest # of days for any one year in DJF was only 11. But during 2009-2018, the highest was 21 and 7 of the 10 years had 14+ days! So, it really looks like there is something to this research that may help explain a major reason for the SE US' warmer winters recently.

I discovered this just last month after reading what this link said:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1764-4

“Twofold expansion of the Indo-Pacific warm pool warps the MJO life cycle”
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So, this is permanent?
 
whatalife said:
It’s Christmas! Stay positive or you’ll be sitting next to Mack...Looking from the outside in!


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Its not about being negative or positive. Its more about being so toxic with your posts that we have people not posting here anymore. People have been warned about their acts getting old, no more warnings going forward

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whatalife said:
It’s Christmas! Stay none toxic or you’ll be sitting next to Mack...Looking from the outside in!


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SD said:
Its not about being negative or positive. Its more about being so toxic with your posts that we have people not posting here anymore. People have been warned about their acts getting old, no more warnings going forward

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Fixed it and yes I was well aware of this.


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cd2play said:
So, this is permanent?
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That paper suggests it isn’t random and may be semi-permanent until the Indo-Pacific waters cool back down in relation to surrounding waters. The Maritime Continent, mainly comprised of Indonesia and the Philippines, is centered in the middle of this warm pool. Maritime Continent is the home of warm MJO phases 4 and 5.

“We find that these changes in the MJO life cycle are associated with a twofold expansion of the Indo-Pacific warm pool, the largest expanse of the warmest ocean temperatures on Earth.”

This is from here:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1764-4

So, it isn’t that it has warmed but that it has warmed more than surrounding ocean areas have warmed.
 
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Ollie Williams said:
Tarheel1


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Okay. Thanks for the reply.

I think some folks have mistaken the use of this particular thread and simply abused their privileges.

Please don't anyone reply to me about this is the "Whamby thread" and "I don't have to read this thread." I should be able to open and read any thread on here and not be annoyed by posts (some, of course, not all). I understand this is supposed to be a fun thread where folks can show their disappointment, joke around and whatnot. But I thought some posts were going a bit overboard. Even for this particular thread.

I'll say it again to the chagrin of a small faction of members: If you truly and badly want snow, and the lack of it brings out unpleasantness and passive-aggressive behavior then move.

Enjoy and be safe during the holidays!
 
Rain Cold said:
Twas the night before Christmas, when all through the east
Not a snowflake was stirring, not one in the least.
The snow boots were stored in the closet with care
And the shovel was hung on the wall in despair.

The cold it was nestled, all snug near the pole
A gift far much worse than a big lump of coal.
And the only small token that winter brought forth
Came from a cool front, slipping in from the north.

I laid there awake as I heard the rain splatter
Another good winter turning into a ratter.
When what to my wondering ears did I hear?
An alert that the new European was here.

The cold GFS had given me snow
Would the Euro confirm? I just had to know.
Away to the laptop, I flew like a flash
Threw open the website and cleared all the cache.

But even as over the time stamps I flew
My eyes soon confirmed what my heavy heart knew
There was only bright red where there should have been blue
The Euro had spoken, “There is no snow for you!”

My head hung in sadness while I sat there and pondered
Would ensembles be worth staying up for, I wondered?
Would a miracle await, would Christmas some through?
Could the wintriest of all wintry wishes come true?

But soon to my senses I came with a bound
Closed out the window and shut the site down.
Then off to the bedroom, I turned with a jerk
Three hours of sleep was the night’s only perk.

As I pillowed my head and tucked in the sheet
Distressed that the Euro is so hard to beat
I knew in my heart that this snowstorm was done
At least until dawn and the next 6z run.

View attachment 28922

View attachment 28923

MERRY CHRISTMAS!!
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Incredible. That could bring a tear to a glass eye. Better than the original
 
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