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Wintry December 10-11th winter potential

Fountainguy97 said:
Don’t forget the tropical tidbits snow maps are honestly absolute TRASH. It’s the only part of the site I can’t stand. So that is very misleading. I really wish he would change them. I’ve seen those tropical tidbits snow maps in so many weather hyping posts across social media.


Pivotal Weather has Kuchera snow maps which are much much better. And much more realistic. We aren’t going to see widespread 5+ inches.
3km is even more conservative than this. That’s a Red flag and likely means this may even be overdone.
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Levi Cowan himself (owner of Tropical Tidbits) stated that his snowfall maps aren't that accurate due to funky algorithm that NCEP use... so he stressed that his Total Positive Snow Depth Change snow maps are much more accurate. Having forecast over a dozen snowfall events in the Northeast, I can verify that Total Positive Snow Depth Change is the way to go for snow maps from TT.
 
Here you go Brent
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The latest GEFS plumes for Huntsville have increased the snow amounts with a mean of just under 1". All members seem to show some accumulation, and though most are less than an inch, there several higher than an inch up to over two inches. NWS Huntsville does mention the possibilty of an advisory issuance.
 
crecre9 said:
The latest GEFS plumes for Huntsville have increased the snow amounts with a mean of just under 1". All members seem to show some accumulation, and though most are less than an inch, there several higher than an inch up to over two inches. NWS Huntsville does mention the possibilty of an advisory issuance.
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Cool still hoping waiting on other models to come out though with new information thanks
 
Well I am hugging nam for my backyard. ???Looks decent for North Mississippi and most of North Alabama..49053B9A-D54F-4C14-843D-CEF6E25C7675.jpeg
 
Latest 3km kuchera!

NAM family has really dried up QPF the last couple of runs. Almost in half. More ice too now for Eastern TN as the warm nose trends stronger as usual.

Overall a very minor event. but any flakes are a win for sure.

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Regular NAM. Holding steady showing some snow in the area of N MS and AL and E TN.
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Lates GEFS Plumes for HSV holding steady with a mean of .91
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Looks like most modeling holding serve for my area. Thermal profiles obviously iffy and the growth zone may be too dry. As of 1500 forecast discussion update, NWS Huntsville says accumulation snow likely though.
 
MRX calling for a half inch here in Chattanooga. Doubtful really. Way too optimistic. I think it falls but will be too warm and short-lived to stick. So a melted .5 maybe. Also, Wed is calling for a high of 50. We had stronger cold fronts in early Nov. Weird. Edit: maybe that's a midnight high, not sure.
 
SETNwx said:
MRX calling for a half inch here in Chattanooga. Doubtful really. Way too optimistic. I think it falls but will be too warm and short-lived to stick. So a melted .5 maybe. Also, Wed is calling for a high of 50. We had stronger cold fronts in early Nov. Weird.
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I agree. I seriously doubt we see anything stick. I really don’t see any guidance currently predicting anything at all for Chattanooga and east from from there. Maybe the Euro had a half an inch. But I’m not sure it accounts for melting.
 
SETNwx said:
Yeah it somehow miraculously snows 1 inch in Chattanooga, but whiffs on the plateau... lol I wonder what CHA's sounding are.
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That'll be the day lol.

Verbatim this run there is a narrow window for accumulating snow at the tail end. Soundings are decent but only for a short period.
@28 we have plenty of lift, however the DGZ is kinda dry.
@29 we are pretty much saturated, however the lift has quickly faded.

nam3km_2019121000_fh28_sounding_35.04N_85.20W.png



nam3km_2019121000_fh29_sounding_35.04N_85.20W.png
 
Waiting on the gfs amd euro fo end this miserable fluke
 
cyclogent said:
That'll be the day lol.

Verbatim this run there is a narrow window for accumulating snow at the tail end. Soundings are decent but only for a short period.
@28 we have plenty of lift, however the DGZ is kinda dry.
@29 we are pretty much saturated, however the lift has quickly faded.

nam3km_2019121000_fh28_sounding_35.04N_85.20W.png



nam3km_2019121000_fh29_sounding_35.04N_85.20W.png
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thx cyclo....
 
not impressed here, looks like the rain is gonna clear out ahead of schedule(again...)
 
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