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Pattern The Great December Dump

Now since this time frame is 8 days away, this will be handled better and better on modeling as the days go on. Could turn out to be a big event with this look.
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Myfrotho704_ said:
Interesting... while the sfc will likely be to warm for any snow to make it to the ground, may see some graupel/soft hail tommorow evening with these Convective showers, mixed BL makes it interesting, now if sfc WBZs make it in the upper 30s, then things get interesting View attachment 26771
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Yeah I'm still hoping for some graupel later today, maybe just maybe....

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GaWx said:
0Z EPS says the GEFS is 100% on crack and is much warmer than the GEFS in the 11-15 day with what is nearly a torch.
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Just subtle differences but seems like the warmer model usually wins out.

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KyloG said:
Just subtle differences but seems like the warmer model usually wins out.

View attachment 26798View attachment 26799
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I would choose a happy medium here. The GEFS is nearly always too cold, but the EPS is correcting with a stronger western ridge in the long range 168-240hr and has been all fall.

Probably a pattern with pretty much normal averaged temps in a very progressive pattern.
 
The 10th-11th really has my attention now. Big snow event is looking like a possibility, strong pacific jet and polar jet are coming together. This is an indication of a winter event and possibly a significant event. These type of set-ups can bring lots of snow. Warm moist air coming from the pacific, while cold deep air pushes south and east. gfs_uv250_us_35.pnggfs_z500_vort_us_32.png
 
WxWatch said:
The 10th-11th really has my attention now. Big snow event is looking like a possibility, strong pacific jet and polar jet are coming together. This is an indication of a winter event and possibly a significant event. These type of set-ups can bring lots of snow. Warm moist air coming from the pacific, while cold deep air pushes south and east. View attachment 26803View attachment 26804
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Agreed. Looks like a petty fantastic setup for the upper Midwest and Great Lakes.
 
I expect a general favorable response to the 12Z GEFS but of course extreme caution is advised to minimize the chance of heartbreak. I’m still waiting for the higher performing EPS to go toward the solid E US cold of the GEFS, but it hasn’t yet:

Here is the 11-15 of the 12Z GEFS: ?
1575308557956.png

Now in very sharp contrast, here is the near torch 0Z EPS 11-15: ?
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GaWx said:
I expect a general favorable response to the 12Z GEFS but of course extreme caution is advised to minimize the chance of heartbreak. I’m still waiting for the higher performing EPS to go toward the solid E US cold of the GEFS, but it hasn’t yet:

Here is the 11-15 of the 12Z GEFS: ?
View attachment 26806

Now in very sharp contrast, here is the near torch 0Z EPS 11-15: ?
View attachment 26807
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I don't expect either model is going to do particularly well in the 10+ day time frame right now. But the good thing is, so far, we are avoiding sustained warm-ups. If you look at the GFS through D10, you won't see one. Last night's Euro looks like it starts to get warm toward the end, but the changes necessary for it to show a significantly colder solution aren't all that great. Anyway, we'll keep on the lookout for the inevitable warm-up, and maybe it'll continue to stay just beyond reach.
 
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