Wintry Nov 16 wintry weather threat

[Rain Cold]

@Brick Tamland @Jimmy Hypocracy

Go duke it out in PM land or in the Whamby thread. Talk about the rain, sleet, whatever-model-you-prefer threat in here. Delete torpedoes are locked and loaded.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

SW trend ftw! 0z NAM coming strong:

View attachment 25999

Intrigued. I see some westward retrogression? Coastal precip shield expansion? Yas

 

[Ollie Williams]

I don't see us getting much ZR with temps at 32 degrees. I remember Mets from the January "Ice Storm" going with the models, not taking into account how much freezing will occur. With the NAM, I'm extremely skeptical.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I don't see us getting much ZR with temps at 32 degrees. I remember Mets from the January "Ice Storm" going with the models, not taking into account how much freezing will occur. With the NAM, I'm extremely skeptical.

ZR is a self limiting process! I’m happy I get to
be the first to reference that overused, yet true, factoid this winter

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

ZR is a self limiting process! I’m happy I get to
be the first to reference that overused, yet true, factoid this winter

True ...... unless there is a constant supply of cold dry air from a high up north.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

#winning !!! But anyways while many say with these types of soundings that they don’t support sleet, I’ve seen setups with crappy refreezing layers as small as this still produce sleet, but this in my opinion isn’t worthy of a thread, and btw with that WAA, rain drops would counter dynamical cooling with the fresh airmass trying to advect in due to heat fluxes from raindrops (helping to drag that warmer air aloft)

 

[Myfrotho704_]

ZR is a self limiting process! I’m happy I get to
be the first to reference that overused, yet true, factoid this winter

THIS IS IT chief

 

[Broken024]

Please watch out for snow drifts

 

[Ollie Williams]

Please watch out for snow drifts

I remember the storm we had last November and when it had 14 inches of model snow in the mtns. which really was ZR.

 

[SD]

Warmer nam run in this area with the low closer to the coast

 

[KyloG]

Warmer nam run in this area with the low closer to the coast

yeah, rain shield further NW past few runs

One good thing will come from this thread...Brick moves to the bottom of list for the people that want to make winter storm threads. Come Jan/Feb we need people that don’t have bad juju.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I wouldn’t mind making a thread, but TBH we should make a thread that explains winter teleconnections more, for example the -EPO, and how it develops, why it developed, it’s effect on our weather, how long it last, and record how long it last

 

[SimeonNC]

Does any of the sounds from the NAM support any possible sleet or is it all modeled ZR and Cold Rain?

 

[BirdManDoomW]

32 over 28. Some moisture nearby. NWS now says snow and drizzle poss.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Future radar on WXII12 has some snow breaking out for Iredell to southern Wilkes over the brushy mtns

 

[mrdaddyman]

View attachment 25995

Warmer nam run in this area with the low closer to the coast

It's either suppression or a warm nose. I'm not sure what it's going to take to get snow here again.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

View attachment 25995

It's either suppression or a warm nose. I'm not sure what it's going to take to get snow here again.

It’s only November, not even winter yet, if it was February I’d agree

 

[IWC]

Morning, What are the rates? I'd like to run ads when we have a thread for we have Inclement weather in our state.

 

[SD]

Morning, What are the rates? I'd like to run ads when we have a thread for we have Inclement weather in our state.

PM me and we can discuss

 

[SD]

RAH mentioning a few sleet pellets or a little freezing drizzle