B
Brick Tamland
Guest
What time does it show it coming through Wake?
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Observations Fright Night Halloween Week Severe Obs
- Thread starter BirdManDoomW
- Start date
-
- Tags
- boo
What time does it show it coming through Wake?
BHS1975
Member
That’s a lot of cape and shear focused on Wake Co.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
The widespread wind damage looks to be a legit threat... with the line of storms and immediately behind the front. I know models always overdo winds but every single model showing gust over 40, so even if a location doesn't get a severe warned storm winds still look potentially problematic. Of course the HRRR continues to try to paint an eerie picture, not sure about the PDS Tor but those winds are ripping just off the surface and likelihood of a few rotating cells certainly increasing
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
WRAL keeps changing the timing of when the storms should come through here. Last night they said not until 10 pm, and today they are saying 8 pm.
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
Over 1.5" of rain in the past 24 hours has primed the soil for wind/tree damage.
The models have sped up the timing of the front slightly, honestly your talking 2 hours and that's well within a reasonable expectation of a forecast imo. Shoot any time after 4 should be on the lookout for any possible development.
Jessy89
Member
It looks like this line will be a very fast moving line. Here in upstate sc it hits around probably 2pm and the tornado threat is pretty much zero by 3pm. Don’t blink you might miss it
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
I just want to be able to get the trick-or-treating in before the storms come through.
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Watch out NC foothills, warnings are out for extreme northern SC in a tornado breeding zone as discussed yesterday.
Last edited:
Interesting storm south-west of Hickory NC I may intercept.
HrrrHHHRRRRRRRrr has been very consistent in bringing the line through Wake between 7 and 8. The new 13z run has some supercellular activity ahead of the main line. That looks to be problematic, if it turns out to actually develop. 12z NAM is an hour or two slower with the line and has virtually no pre-squall activity. Either way, going to be rough evening for many trick or treaters.
Yeah, it's going to be close. As WRAL states, go trick or treating early and don't linger past 8pm.
Something else that will be interesting (in a geek way) is how fast the cold air comes in. For many tomorrows high will occur tonight at mid-night (especially for central NC). Tomorrows afternoon high temps may not get out of the mid 50s. If we can drop to that or below (as many models show) that will be the official high. So in official stats, we could see RDU with a high of 55 whereas Rocky Mount is 73.
Yes. NWS Ral discussion says 5-7 here in the Triad and 7-8 for the Triangle. As Poimen mentioned, wet soils across the region are going to be problematic.
Last edited:
I really don't like your attitude towards the HRRR young man.... with that said, sun trying to pop out here, very muggy and things do appear to be shaping up for an interesting if not scary (pun intended) night.
Avalanche
Member
Hope we (those in central NC) can land a few of those renegade cells ahead of the main line, bc by the time that squall line gets here, I bet it isn't five miles wide. Still need the rain badly here.
Very violent feel outside with wind and power blinking despite little to nothing on radar. It doesn’t usually feel like this in late October.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
2025 Supporter
Ruh roh, sun is breaking out here! Destabilizing to the max! Luckily trick or treat looking clear now, storms, if they form, will be out of my area by 5
S
snowcool776
Guest
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
From former WRAL met Greg Fishel.
COULD BE A LITTLE ROUGH LATER THIS EVENING
A very strong cold front (temps in the 40s right now in Nashville, TN) is just west of Knoxville, Tennessee and will arrive in the Triangle around 8-10pm this evening. Very strong winds exist at all levels of the atmosphere along with that all important "turning" of the winds with height that we always look for. Clouds are beginning to thin out a bit to our southwest, so a little sun will probably be observed this afternoon, only adding fuel to the fire for the evening storms. Now it is true that these storms will not be blazing through at time of maximum heating, but it still appears that there will be plenty of instability present to support strong storms. Hail is not a threat with these storms, but damaging straight line winds are, and a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out.
COULD BE A LITTLE ROUGH LATER THIS EVENING
A very strong cold front (temps in the 40s right now in Nashville, TN) is just west of Knoxville, Tennessee and will arrive in the Triangle around 8-10pm this evening. Very strong winds exist at all levels of the atmosphere along with that all important "turning" of the winds with height that we always look for. Clouds are beginning to thin out a bit to our southwest, so a little sun will probably be observed this afternoon, only adding fuel to the fire for the evening storms. Now it is true that these storms will not be blazing through at time of maximum heating, but it still appears that there will be plenty of instability present to support strong storms. Hail is not a threat with these storms, but damaging straight line winds are, and a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out.
S
snowcool776
Guest
This is a DANGEROUS SITUATION. This storm has produced widespread
wind damage across Roane County. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy
structure and stay away from windows.
nws issued pds svr. @Fountainguy97 better look out
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
MCD suggests a watch is likely for parts of western NC soon.
S
snowcool776
Guest
possibly pds?
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Mesoscale Discussion 2128
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1012 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019
Areas affected...Parts of eastern North Carolina...northeastern
Tennessee...southwestern Virginia...far eastern Kentucky...West
Virginia and southwestern Pennsylvania
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 311512Z - 311715Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...A more substantial increase in potential for severe wind
gusts, and perhaps isolated tornadoes, is expected with a developing
line of storms during the 1-3 PM EDT time frame. One or more
watches probably will be needed within the next couple of hours.
DISCUSSION...Although mid/upper-level lapse rates across much of the
region are more or less moist adiabatic, latest objective analysis
suggests that boundary layer warming and moistening are contributing
to at least weak destabilization along the western slopes of the
Allegheny Mountains. Mixed-layer CAPE may not become much more than
roughly 500 J/kg, but this is expected to occur in the presence of
strengthening lower/mid tropospheric wind fields, as deepening of
the surface cyclone (now centered near Columbus OH) proceeds more
rapidly through early to mid afternoon.
Model forecast soundings indicate south to southwesterly flow
intensifying to 50-70+ kt, just off the surface through around 500
mb, as the strengthening surface cold front advances toward the
Alleghenies. This is expected to coincide with increasing lift
along/ahead of the cold front, aided by forcing for upward vertical
motion ahead of a vigorous short wave trough gradually pivoting east
of the the Mississippi Valley, to support an intensifying line of
thunderstorms.
It is possible that this may be gradually underway across parts of
northeastern Tennessee through eastern Kentucky and southeastern
Ohio, but a more notable increase/intensification seems more likely
during the 17-19Z time frame, before gradually spreading eastward
into/through the Appalachians.
As convection intensifies, downward momentum transport in downdrafts
will contribute to increasing potential for damaging convective
surface gusts. Large low-level hodographs could also support
supercell structures along and perhaps just ahead of the developing
line of storms, with a risk for tornadoes.
..Kerr/Grams.. 10/31/2019
S
snowcool776
Guest
So possibly this could turn out to be a derecho?
Mesoscale Discussion 2128
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1012 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019
Areas affected...Parts of eastern North Carolina...northeastern
Tennessee...southwestern Virginia...far eastern Kentucky...West
Virginia and southwestern Pennsylvania
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 311512Z - 311715Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...A more substantial increase in potential for severe wind
gusts, and perhaps isolated tornadoes, is expected with a developing
line of storms during the 1-3 PM EDT time frame. One or more
watches probably will be needed within the next couple of hours.
DISCUSSION...Although mid/upper-level lapse rates across much of the
region are more or less moist adiabatic, latest objective analysis
suggests that boundary layer warming and moistening are contributing
to at least weak destabilization along the western slopes of the
Allegheny Mountains. Mixed-layer CAPE may not become much more than
roughly 500 J/kg, but this is expected to occur in the presence of
strengthening lower/mid tropospheric wind fields, as deepening of
the surface cyclone (now centered near Columbus OH) proceeds more
rapidly through early to mid afternoon.
Model forecast soundings indicate south to southwesterly flow
intensifying to 50-70+ kt, just off the surface through around 500
mb, as the strengthening surface cold front advances toward the
Alleghenies. This is expected to coincide with increasing lift
along/ahead of the cold front, aided by forcing for upward vertical
motion ahead of a vigorous short wave trough gradually pivoting east
of the the Mississippi Valley, to support an intensifying line of
thunderstorms.
It is possible that this may be gradually underway across parts of
northeastern Tennessee through eastern Kentucky and southeastern
Ohio, but a more notable increase/intensification seems more likely
during the 17-19Z time frame, before gradually spreading eastward
into/through the Appalachians.
As convection intensifies, downward momentum transport in downdrafts
will contribute to increasing potential for damaging convective
surface gusts. Large low-level hodographs could also support
supercell structures along and perhaps just ahead of the developing
line of storms, with a risk for tornadoes.
..Kerr/Grams.. 10/31/2019
No. If you don’t see derecho or PDS mentioned then why ask?
Tons of sun out right now near UNCC campus
S
snowcool776
Guest
S
snowcool776
Guest
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Sun peeking out here in Raleigh.
Look deeper... the tornado and wind probabilities have increased .. this is an “upper” end enhanced riskNo changes to the 1630Z outlook
S
snowcool776
Guest
And this is a moderate risk because of the 45 wind, but it is an enhanced risk due to the sig not being there.
Tornado watches issued
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
Intermittent sunshine, temps near 80, dew points in the low 70s...sounds like the table is set, but will dinner be served?
packfan98
Moderator
I wouldn't trust the text output on these soundings they flag as PDS all the timePDS Tornado can be seen in the radiosonode.
Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Mesoscale Discussion 2129
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1211 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019
Areas affected...Parts of northern North Carolina...much of
Virginia...western and central Maryland...south central Pennsylvania
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 311711Z - 311945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...One or more severe weather watches will likely be needed
east of the Allegheny and Blue Ridge Mountains by 4-5 PM EDT.
However, isolated severe storm development, including a risk for
supercells, could require an earlier watch (likely tornado)
issuance.
DISCUSSION...Low-level and deep-layer shear are already strong to
extreme across and east of the Allegheny and Blue Ridge Mountains,
within deepening lee surface troughing, to the southeast of the
intensifying surface cyclone now approaching Lake Erie. Despite
weak mid/upper lapse rates, the northward return of seasonably moist
boundary layer air (including surface dew points near 70F), coupled
with boundary layer warming, is also contributing to modest
destabilization across this region. Mixed-layer CAPE probably will
continue to increase through the 500-1000+ J/kg range into mid to
late afternoon, perhaps as far north as south central Pennsylvania.
The primary increase in severe weather potential to the east of the
Allegheny Mountains still appears likely to occur in association
with an intensifying squall line near/just ahead of an approaching
strengthening cold front, mainly during and after the 21-23Z time
frame. However, it might not be out of the question that the
ongoing destabilization, weakening inhibition, and perhaps forcing
for ascent associated with weak warm advection, may become
sufficient to support isolated to widely scattered discrete
convective development in advance of the front. If this occurs, the
environment will probably be conducive to supercells, which may be
accompanied by the risk for tornadoes, in addition to localized
strong surface gusts.
..Kerr/Grams.. 10/31/2019
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Mesoscale Discussion 2130
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019
Areas affected...Portions of central eastern Georgia...far western
South Carolina
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 311725Z - 311930Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Low-topped showers and embedded thunderstorms will
continue east/northeast this afternoon and evening. Damaging wind
gusts will be the primary threat with some potential for brief,
isolated tornado or two. Threat should subside after 00Z as
shortwave trough and associated lift departs to the northeast.
DISCUSSION...A line of showers and embedded thunderstorms has
developed along and ahead of an approaching cold front in western
Georgia. With modest surface heating of a moist (low 70s F
dewpoints) airmass ahead of this activity, storms will move into an
environment with 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. While mid-level ascent is
approaching from the west, this forcing will maximize from around
20-00Z. Thereafter, the shortwave trough will lift to the northeast.
During that time frame, storm intensity is likely to increase due to
the favorable effective shear (40-50 kts) as well as favorable
overlap of upper-level forcing and buoyancy. Given the strong
low/mid-level wind fields, damaging convective wind gusts will be
possible. Low-level flow is quite veered in this region. With that
said, moderate to strong 850 mb winds will continue into the evening
and support some potential for low-level storm rotation. Brief,
isolated tornado or two will also be possible.
..Wendt/Grams.. 10/31/2019