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Tropical Karen

After a couple of fish storms people may not be paying as much attention to this one and it may pose a marginal threat for someone.
 
Model consensus projections almost always change significantly from this far out and especially when there is an unusual path being shown. Usually the highly unusual path this far out doesn’t verify based on my many years of tracking. There’s an old saying that you want to be in the projected path this far out because it will almost always change a good bit.

So, the good news is that despite the latest consensus suggesting a hard left and subsequent west movement all the way back to the CONUS is quite possible, there’s at least as good a chance nothing even close to that will verify. How many times this year and in others have we seen early progs of strong ridges blocking and then forcing west to this extent end up changing drastically as the days go along to where the storm instead escapes easily? So, my take right now is to keep this kind of highly unusual potentially dangerous path in mind as just a possibility but not a likelihood at least right now. Besides the path quite possibly drastically changing later and she not even getting close to the CONUS, Karen could end up very weak even if she does get close.

At this early Jerry stage, I was easily willing to lay $50 to win $10 on no CONUS hit or near miss and was saying 90% chance of no hit or near miss. As I said earlier, this is a much different situation and potentially much more dangerous than for Jerry. But, even so, I’d still consider at this early stage odds going somewhat against a hit on the CONUS. But I wouldn’t enthusiastically lay $50 to win $10. I probably wouldn’t lay more than $20 to win $10 right now. Right now, I’m going with about a 2 in 3 chance of no TC hit on the CONUS.
 
In a very dangerous spot and close to October. Anyone got some analogs like Sandy etc
 
The euro control does what Dorian wanted to do before It broke down the ridge in its later runs.
ecmwf-se-total_precip_inch-0384800.png
 
With the ridge already projected to weaken a little by this time could this lead the way to a possible pattern change?
 
BirdManDoomW said:
In a very dangerous spot and close to October. Anyone got some analogs like Sandy etc
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Wrong location for Sandy, so an analog would not match.

Yes there is a chance this storm could go OTS, but I'm not sold, and Yes guidance can change. However, I wouldn't just say it's a fish storm just yet. I don't want a major US impact, but I want a pattern change at least. It going OTS would keep this heat rolling.
 
The best scenario is it to stay weak. And hit the southeast. Bring much needed rain. And possibly a pattern change.


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The CMC track was interesting though I loath the CMC as a tropical model since it flat out sucks....it kind of makes sense given the overall setup and I could see this playing out somewhat like that....
 
If Karen develops and move into this spot with that ridge to her north. :oops:

C1DDA9ED-FDE1-43A1-BCF4-EF175B362AF2.png245A0F09-5593-4A17-A2B6-AE50BE0FB0CE.png
 
11 am discussion.....

Given the current sprawling structure, nearby dry
mid-level air, and moderate northwesterly shear, no significant
strengthening is expected through 48 hours. In fact, the system may
have trouble surviving over the eastern Caribbean Sea as the global
models predict an increase in northeasterly upper-level winds over
the system on Monday. Once the cyclone moves north of Puerto Rico,
the shear is forecast to decrease, and some strengthening is
indicated in the official forecast, but this will depend on the
structure of the system at that time. At this time, the long range
intensity forecast is quite uncertain.
 
The NNW then stall portion of the track looks pretty likely after that things are muddy. Does jerry exiting create enough of a weakness so that it's a slow NE drift after the stall? Does a potential upper low help pull it west? Does enough shortwave energy topple over the developing eastern ridge capture karen and pull it back east? Do we see a rapid building of ridge near Bermuda after Jerry ahead of Karen so that it is stopped and forced WSW to SW? Also if you live in a good part of the interior SE it's not going to be easy to get Karen into the area to bring beneficial rain. Closed 591 heights aren't going to let anything into the area and we really need the ridge to either be suppressed SE so Karen can be pulled around the ridge. Or the ridge to shift west so that a trough can dig down the eastern flank and catch it and pull it northward.

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12Z: ICON looks like recurve from US while GFS is the opposite though GFS weakens her to a wave.
 
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_35.png
 
Brent said:
GFS is weak weak weak but goes all the way to Texas lol
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Brent, the wave that goes to TX actually looks like it isn’t from Karen but rather from a different disturbance coming in behind it from the Caribbean....that is if we’re looking at the same entity.

NM, I’m looking at something later that goes into TX. My mistake.
 
GaWx said:
Brent, the wave that goes to TX actually looks like it isn’t from Karen but rather from a different disturbance coming in behind it from the Caribbean....that is if we’re looking at the same entity.
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Looks like Karen just breaks up kinda in 2 type pieces and the disturbance pushes up from the Caribbean into the gulf creates it's own low pressure. Interesting run for sure.
 
GaWx said:
Brent, the wave that goes to TX actually looks like it isn’t from Karen but rather from a different disturbance coming in behind it from the Caribbean....that is if we’re looking at the same entity.

NM, I’m looking at something later that goes into TX. My mistake.
Click to expand...

Yeah its super weak on the gfs which makes it harder to figure out too looks like it gets sheared out and dies before it ever approaches the US
 
KyloG said:
UK...not sure where to post this. But that’s Jerry trapped and Karen to its NE.
View attachment 23849
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Yep, I just posted this in the Jerry thread. This 12Z UKMET quickly downgrades Karen into a wave. Then after a NNW move of Jerry has him stall at hour 60 followed by a turn to the SSW hours 96-132 and then a turn to the WSW 132-44!

Edit: 12Z Legacy moves Karen west but then weakens her.
12Z GEFS: I couldn’t find any members that have anything other than weak though they do mainly get stuck and go west.
12Z CMC: way OTS

Edit: Meanwhile, she’s been weakening.
 
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Yes karen looks almost like a wave. I did see some spin, but the shear is ripping her apart.
 
Just north of Miami, strengthening and still heading west, probably emerges in the eastern GOM... of course all this dependent on her surviving in the first place, looking ragged atm. Llc exposed and deep convection all over the place

1569178087455.png
 
That is one huge ridge on the Euro. Only one place that this is going in the case that's depicted there and it could be dangerous even if it's weak if it does get there (assuming it survives).
 
I hope the gfs and euro run today verifies with a weak system on the northern gulf coast. That would be great news for the ones who need rain which is many. Still to early and alot will change
 
12Z EPS: not surprisingly (due to much weaker operational) far weaker with the average member than the 0Z EPS and with far fewer full fledged TCs. Many fewer than the 18 CONUS hits of the 0Z. However, there are still a nontrivial number of CONUS hits out of ~51. More details later from somebody.
 
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Looks more possible if it heads west its gonna just become a rain maker as a weaker TS, if that’s the case bring it on, somebody in the SE would see beneficial rain from that
 
12Z EPS: About half the number of TC CONUS hits (9/29-10/4) vs 0Z's 18 but still means a legit threat as of now as I still see 10 hitting members/20% of members:

9/29: St. Aug., FL, as a H
9/29: SE tip of FL as a H followed by a 2nd hit SE LA 10/1 as a H
9/30: CHS, SC, as a H
9/30: SE FL as a TD
9/30: SE FL as a TD (different one)
10/1: GA/FL border as a TD
10/1: Cape Canaveral, FL, as a H
10/1: SE FL as a TS I think; then a 2nd hit on SE LA 10/3 as a TS
10/3: Daytona Beach, FL, as a TS
10/4: Vero Beach, FL, as a H

Edit: There is only one near CHS as the 2nd line is the same one coming back offshore lol. Also, one of the TDs hitting SE FL is from Jerry, not Karen.
 
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