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Tropical Major Hurricane Humberto

With the pattern the gfs is showing anything sitting offshore would be steered inland.


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GaWx said:
Yeah, the 10 or so EPS members that stall either offshore or just onshore and then make a hard left due to the very strong ridge to the north makes it more difficult than usual for the day 4+ period. The good news is that that's only 20% or so of the members that do this. Also, based on my many years of following these kind of alternative options that show up for some storms due to blocking ridges, when there is strong model disagreement the hard left option usually doesn't end up happening and the storm instead gains more latitude albeit sometimes slowly. However, that's just the usual and every storm is different. Also, E US ridging has been exceeding expectations, if anything. So, if that were to verify, you'd need to give that 20% more weight.
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Yeah this is spot on, homegrown's that go NE at some point almost never come back hard left....to me the bigger threat is for the east turn to be more gradual and slower not letting the center get out well east of Hatteras so that when it turns north it has to cross NC and move up the coast.....
 
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Based off the hurricane models, I can't draw to show it but I'd say the middle idea is off the coast by about 50 miles.
 
yeah I'm actually not looking for this one to organize, but unfortunately I think we might've seen enough that we're just doing mental exercises before the GFS suite caves to a stronger and east solution.

We'll see though. Longer it takes to become a TD, the more likely it becomes something that helps us with rain relief.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
yeah I'm actually not looking for this one to organize, but unfortunately I think we might've seen enough that we're just doing mental exercises before the GFS suite caves to a stronger and east solution.

We'll see though. Longer it takes to become a TD, the more likely it becomes something that helps us with rain relief.
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Its a battle between good and evil. Got that off of Hook the movie
 
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the coast of east-central Florida from Jupiter Inlet northward to the Volusia-Brevard County line.
 
Going back looking at the Nam, gfs and few other model runs, the low bounces around like crazy from 50 to at least 100 miles off. Like others have been saying, without a true center it very hard to tell where it's going or headed to. Seems to me, up the Florida straits would be most likely for now.
 
GFS legacy slowly catching on the other models now has a weak TS skirting SE coast then moving east away from land and deepening into a cane, might even be a threat if it gets blocked and moves NW at some point....
 
The new GFS is also getting closer to getting in on the party.

It was a good run on the chance of getting rain relief inland.
 
Gfs still west from other runs but trending east as well, plus a south jog back?
 
GFS just trucking due east right to Bermuda.....that's actually kind of a odd track at that latitude.....
 
FWIW, CMC is further west. Actually made a landfall in south Florida
 
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If you though you was confused, gfs back over Florida lol
 
From Greg Fishel:

This tropical system won't be as strong as Dorian, but it's forecast track could end up being even more difficult to predict. All indications are that Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 will become Tropical Storm Humberto sometime tomorrow. and then be close to the Florida coast over the weekend before grazing the southeast coast of the United States early to mid next week. Now there are two camps with regard to the initial track. The American model and it's ensemble members favor the storm crossing Florida and heading into the Gulf of Mexico, while most of the National Hurricane Center Models as well as the European deterministic model and it's ensemble members point to a track similar to the one described above. In fact, this time the European deterministic model keeps the storm farther off our coast than Dorian was, and then makes a sudden left turn midweek and heads up to the Chesapeake Bay and the mid-Atlantic States! Sounds like the kind of situation that will lead to not only the changing of hair color, but also the diminishing of its density over the next 7 days. I would not be surprised to see Humberto become a hurricane by late In the weekend assuming it does not cross Florida. To say anything beyond that at this time is probably pretty ludicrous, so I will avoid that trap as best I can. More frequent updates tomorrow and over the weekend!
 
0Z Gfs, Legacy, CMC, JMA, and ICON all east of previous runs and increase the chance this stays off FL and never landfalls in the US. At least the trend is there for that to occur. We’ll see.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Trough that's been showing up on a few runs catches it on the Legacy and that's what sends it east like that.
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Sure I get that, its just usually a more NE or ENE type motion, I dont recall many times if any where a storm has gone that far straight east away from the US that far south.....
 
Speaking of this east trend, I just saw the 18Z EPS and its mean is significantly east of the 12Z EPS mean. Let’s see if the 0Z Euro is at least as far east as the 18Z (which I expect) rather than reverting back west.

Anyone see the 0Z UKMET yet? If so, how was it vs the 12Z?
 
Ukie is also turning east sooner and moving well OTS away from the US, though this run of the UKIE has it about to obliterate Bermuda as a 941 cane on the last frame

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Hour 30 of 0Z Euro even further east than the 18Z. Very good chance at staying OTS.
 
Who would have thought all of those early ICON runs with a TC just E of FL and well east of the then model consensus would now have an excellent chance to verify way too far west?! This kind of stuff is so fascinating and makes tracking these enjoyable because they are such a challenge.
 
GaWx said:
Who would have thought all of those early ICON runs with a TC just E of FL and well east of the then model consensus would now have an excellent chance to verify way too far west?! This kind of stuff is so fascinating and makes tracking these enjoyable because they are such a challenge.
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I dunno about enjoyable lol......the question now is how locked in is this trend......seems pretty likely, its pretty much how I bet 90% of these home grown Bahamas systems play out....
 
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