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Tropical Major Hurricane Humberto

Better to show it now so it will change in later runs! Srry for those in SC wanting rain. Bullseye jinx just a little too early.
 
Tropical Depression 3 formed in a similar spot back in July of this year. I would consider it an analog given the GFS’s lack of development. Levi notes, a middle ground would be delayed development which the GFS might be seeing. Who knows.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
If we are lucky euro will trend east more and catch the next storm and tow it out to sea too! 2 for 1 from Humberto (the storm that replaced Hugo)!
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Heres a sat pic of edourd and fran and how close they were to each other. One exitng stage right did not automatically mean the other followed.
 

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1. Satellite derived winds and surface observations indicate that the
disturbance in the Bahamas has not yet developed a closed
circulation, and that the winds are not strong at this time.
However, surface pressures remain low and environmental conditions
are favorable for a tropical depression or tropical storm to form
within the next day or two as the system moves toward the northwest
at 5 to 10 mph through the northwestern Bahamas and toward the
Florida Peninsula. Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories could be
needed later today or Friday, and interests in the central and
northwestern Bahamas as well as Florida should monitor the progress
of this disturbance. Regardless of development, this disturbance
will bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the Bahamas
through Friday, including areas of the northwestern Bahamas affected
by Hurricane Dorian. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
still scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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Euro initializing with the low deep in the Bahamas. A might be some model trouble until an actual Center forms and the models initialize that better
 
You can already see at 84, if it's not inland yet it will be tough to make it inland.

500mb_geopotential_height_anomaly_mslp_CONUS_hr084.png
 
Arcc said:
Yep, those of us more west are done unless this just doesn’t develop.
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Yeah, it will be tough. Essentially need the opposite...need the trough over newfoundland to be a ridge and the ridge over the lakes to be a trough. Unless this develops further east and is weaker.
500mb_geopotential_height_anomaly_mslp_CONUS_hr108.png
 
Hmmm might not escape ots after all
f53bdf928656bd9a99296d12c233cfb5.jpg


Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 
944 and dropping. New England don’t want that either.
 
Still in the right direction if not out to sea..was New Jersey...hopefully Canada this run but looks like New England....
 
As much I like some rain, I don't want another cane across the SE coasts....good riddance.

500mb_geopotential_height_anomaly_mslp_CONUS_hr186.png
 
This will keep the NE folks twitter happy for today

precip_6hourly_NECONUS_hr198.png
 
Stormsfury said:
I expect more wild swings until we get a dominant circulation... If that happens..

I see hints of SSW winds actually South of Cuba on the Eastern side but Cuba's disrupting with some of the higher terrain. Lots and lots of stuff to iron out
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It seems that the best looking area if rotation is a bit NE of where the euro initialized it. That's gonna be a big step to getting more consensus on the models.

For me and you how far west it gets and when it takes that north motion is going to be crucial. If its deep in the west Atlantic and the east motion doesnt pan out as much then theres trouble brewing for the SE coast again.

Of course if it develops further east and stays east more then the recurve and NE threat goes way up.
 
72 hour Hot off the press....apparently split the baby....and not good if that should occur, based on the curve we are seeing.

atlsfc72_latestBW_sm3.gif
 
12Z EPS early maps suggest there should be a lot of OTS members but with probably a nontrivial minority being possibly dangerous due to not being fully OTS. Looks a touch E of the 6Z and a touch W of the 0Z.
 
GaWx said:
12Z EPS early maps suggest there should be a lot of OTS members but with probably a nontrivial minority being possibly dangerous due to not being fully OTS. Looks a touch E of the 6Z and a touch W of the 0Z.
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Confirmed: Good news. Many OTS but some hanging around and a couple coming back to shore so far.
 
GaWx said:
Confirmed: Good news. Many OTS but some hanging around and a couple coming back to shore so far.
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Final verdict on this run: most 12Z EPS OTS but ~25% problematic for the SE US (FL-NC) with ~2/3 of the 25% stopping and coming back west under the ridge into N FL/GA/SC. Some also threaten or even hit NE US.
 
GaWx said:
Final verdict on this run: most 12Z EPS OTS but ~25% problematic for the SE US (FL-NC) with ~2/3 of the 25% stopping and coming back west under the ridge into N FL/GA/SC. Some also threaten or even hit NE US.
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Maybe that's the reason for the placement on the surface map....
Edit- 12z spaghetti is all over this spot although it diverged at 18z.
 
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