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Tropical Major Hurricane Humberto

GaWx said:
By the way, I’m not yet sure this run is OTS as a high to the north may block it and allow it to hit NC.
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The timing of that ridge moving off NE is pretty key, the UKIE lagged it and left the door open to the NE, the ICON slammed that sucker shut early and keeps the storm much further south and stalled.....one would think it would go NW for awhile once it starts moving as that ridge shifts east.....the Euro is gonna have the NE weenies out in full force lol
 
Once again 50-100 miles one way or the other would have huge implications for the coast.....on the Euro if the storm stalls 50-100 miles further west before moving north it could go from just off Hatteras to the SC/NC border tracking up I-95....same with the UKIE.....if these models are right and a large hurricane forms off Florida its going to be a long week....
 
The 0Z Euro ensemble says that the operational's big shift east is quite possibly for real. It has a huge shift east vs the 18Z with nearly all staying on the E side of FL initially. Then after getting blocked/slowed by the very strong high to the north while they were off of n FL/GA/S SC, they do all sorts of things once moving again from turning E OTS to turning N up into SC or NC to skirting the NE US to turning W to WNW into SC, GA, or N FL.
 
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GaWx said:
It is a reasonable possibility in my mind because the east shift of the consensus hasn’t stopped yet. Remember when the ICON was of the operational on its own with the just off E coast of FL? And now look where we are. The staying offshore scenario has to be considered. This is partially supported by some 18Z EPS members staying well offshore.
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Icon for the win....well at least for today. Lol
 
Downeastnc said:
Once again 50-100 miles one way or the other would have huge implications for the coast.....on the Euro if the storm stalls 50-100 miles further west before moving north it could go from just off Hatteras to the SC/NC border tracking up I-95....same with the UKIE.....if these models are right and a large hurricane forms off Florida its going to be a long week....
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We should copy your post so we can bring it back out every time. Well said...
 
GaWx said:
The 0Z Euro ensemble says that the operational's big shift east is quite possibly for real. It has a huge shift east vs the 18Z with nearly all staying on the E side of FL initially. Then after getting blocked/slowed by the very strong high to the north while they were off of n FL/GA/S SC, they do all sorts of things once moving again from turning E OTS to turning N up into SC or NC to skirting the NE US to turning W to WNW into SC, GA, or N FL.
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Gotta love it, its never easy for us in the SE when it comes to canes, though we are getting out share of left behinds with model mayhem trying to figure out were they go this year.....hopefully this will trend OTS quickly but the setup gives me reason to doubt that is how this goes.....the folks on Ocracoke damn sure don't want it anywhere near them lol....
 
Anyway you look at it, this is a bad look. Lock step with Icon even on timing.
This is for 00z Sunday. So right now, we are T-3. We have another day of model frenzy before this settles in and I hope this high pressure is wrong.

ecmwf_mslpa_watl_4.png
 
Henry2326 said:
06z ICON holds firm.......path is closer to coast this round....

View attachment 23450
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Quite a bit further NW and at 120 hrs vs 180 hrs at 00Z.....06Z is closer to the Ukie/Euro timeline, in fact the ICON track this run is pretty darn close to the Ukie as well...hopefully that means it follows it OTS on later runs...


00Z Icon run at 180 hrs......the 06Z run is much further NW and 60 hr faster
icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_60.png
 
Downeastnc said:
Quite a bit further NW and at 120 hrs vs 180 hrs at 00Z.....06Z is closer to the Ukie/Euro timeline, in fact the ICON track this run is pretty darn close to the Ukie as well...hopefully that means it follows it OTS on later runs...


00Z Icon run at 180 hrs......the 06Z run is much further NW and 60 hr faster
View attachment 23451
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The drama will be possibly having 2 on the east coast at the same time.....crazy times
 
And.....06z GFS still wants gulf.....and looks like it takes it west.
At least, legacy brings it in gulf but takes it east.

gfs_mslpa_atl_13.png
 
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GFS does nothing with it, not even a TD......does not bring any meaningful rainfall into the SE.....which isn't surprising since it does not develop the low into anything that would actually bring rain anywhere....
 
ForsythSnow said:
This better come back west or things are going to get really bad in terms of dryness. We can't go 3 or 4 weeks dry.
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Also seems to me that the best case for the US would be a sudden hit to Florida or crossing into the Gulf because otherwise we would see what the Euro is showing, which is another hurricane Sandy and the other storm following almost too closely too.
 
well I don't put to much stock into the ICON, but maybe it was the trend setter for this one? EURO with its solution surprised me a little with a wild swing to the east. maybe this just stays off shore and then the one after goes OTS as well. Its VERY possible.
 
deltadog03 said:
well I don't put to much stock into the ICON, but maybe it was the trend setter for this one? EURO with its solution surprised me a little with a wild swing to the east. maybe this just stays off shore and then the one after goes OTS as well. Its VERY possible.
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I watched Icon with Dorian. It took a long time for it to catch up to GFS. But Euro did too. Wondering if some specific variable makes GFS better in some scenarios than others...and the same for each model.
 
00z CMC east coast....also does a stutter like it hits a wall and takes a right turn. Saw something similar on ICON

gem_mslp_uv850_seus_17.png
 
1. Satellite images indicate that the area of disturbed weather over
the central and southeastern Bahamas is gradually becoming better
organized while surface pressures are falling in the area.
Conditions are becoming favorable for a tropical depression or a
tropical storm to form within the next day or so as the system moves
toward the northwest through the northwestern Bahamas and toward
the Florida Peninsula at 5 to 10 mph. If this development trend
continues Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories will likely be
initiated later today. This disturbance will bring heavy rainfall
and gusty winds across portions of the Bahamas through Friday,
especially in portions of the northwestern Bahamas affected by
Hurricane Dorian. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
 
KyloG said:
6z Euro. with a ridge to it's due west you would think this would stay over the water.

View attachment 23457
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As long as the WAR ridge isn't building and that trough isn't lifting.

Going back and looking at it, it looks as if the escape route ots should be wide open as the WAR retreats thinks to that trough
 
metwannabe said:
As long as the WAR ridge isn't building and that trough isn't lifting.

Going back and looking at it, it looks as if the escape route ots should be wide open as the WAR retreats thinks to that trough
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Just looked at the 0z Euro...no wonder twitter is filled with excitement from the NE folks.
 
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