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Tropical Major Hurricane Humberto

SD said:
Yep stuck between 2 ridges with a trough to the NE. Where have we seen that before?

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Right! Seems doesn't matter if a TC is a Cape Verde or homegrown they all turn into long trackers....
 
KyloG said:
Day 6

Better hope this mills around over water and not land.

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Only problem with it milling around over water is the high to the NE building back in, you would think that would push it inland.... of course it sits out there for 3-4 days upwelling and weakening should ensue. Of course 3-4 days of tropical rains would have people inland crying mercy too.....
 
I wouldn't get too deep into the track right now since we really don't have an identifiable center. Basically all we know is the stronger systems will likely trend east a weaker system would be west.

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SD said:
I wouldn't get too deep into the track right now since we really don't have an identifiable center. Basically all we know is the stronger systems will likely trend east a weaker system would be west.

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That's a great point. Stronger is east for sure.
 
What’s interesting between 95L vs Dorian is that this time around quiet a few spaghetti models dig inland on various east coast states. Dorian consistently had a void over western NC and verified well east. Everyone is at play so far which is nice for a change. Hats off to Levi yesterday morning for saying it will be tilted east with the convection until it develops and models would likely slow it down (now seeing the stalls) and major track changes as a result (which occurred today).
 
NHC....covering the bases....that's a big cone....working hard to find the center so this cone has some guidance to it.


two_atl_5d1 (4).png
 
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BirdManDoomW said:
What’s interesting between 95L vs Dorian is that this time around quiet a few spaghetti models dig inland on various east coast states. Dorian consistently had a void over western NC and verified well east. Everyone is at play so far which is nice for a change. Hats off to Levi yesterday morning for saying it will be tilted east with the convection until it develops and models would likely slow it down (now seeing the stalls) and major track changes as a result (which occurred today).
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Levi's latest....

 
GFS is gonna head to the gulf again and be a weaker, sheared out mess but also hopefully help a little with rain.

I think based off what I saw from the Euro though, I'll have seen enough if it has a stronger solution again. We'll of course discuss it and go over it for the next few days but it'll be obvious enough the GFS and other solutions are probably out to lunch.
 
metwannabe said:
@180 finally moving north on the ICON with whatever the wave coming off Africa name will be at that time in tow....

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The concern for us here in NC on the icon would be how far east it got before it returned to the north movement. It has to clear hatteras or it would be another hit. Of course this also the icon.
 
Brent said:
Code RED

Btw their cone mostly goes into the Gulf

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Widespread cloudiness and showers extending from the southeastern
Bahamas northward over the southwestern Atlantic for a few hundred
miles are associated with a sharp trough of low pressure. Although
limited development of this system is anticipated tonight and
Thursday, conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive
for tropical cyclone formation over the weekend, and a tropical
depression is likely to form as the system moves slowly toward the
west-northwest across the Florida Straits and southeastern Florida,
and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This disturbance will likely
produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the
Bahamas through Friday, and across Florida during the weekend. An
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system Thursday afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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And Alabama!!! LOL
 
Not bad, too bad this solution might be (okay probably is) out to lunch. It'd be even better if the green areas were filled in a bit more:

1568303970479.png
 
metwannabe said:
@ForsythSnow not only does the ICON say no rain for you but you get west side TC subsidence induced heat wave

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I really hope the ICON is wrong (it's beginning to feel like Arizona here). Last nights Euro makes me think that this will be stronger and go east. Still don't have a well defined center so hopefully it will stay weak and go more west.
 
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