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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
400 PM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

...DORIAN PRODUCING DANGEROUS WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND FLOODING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINA...

NOAA buoy 41004 recently measured sustained winds of 67 mph (108
km/h) and a gust to 83 mph (133 km/h) in the southern eyewall of
Dorian.

The Weatherflow site in Winyah Bay, SC, recently reported a
sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a wind gust of 65 mph (105
km/h) at a height of 50 ft.

A wind gust of 55 mph (89 km/h) was recently reported at a
Weatherflow site in Georgetown, SC, and a gust of 52 mph (84 km/h)
recently reported by a Weatherflow site at Murrells Inlet, SC.


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.9N 78.6W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Debris showing up on radar according to WRAL near Black Creek in Wilson County, headed west.
 
Tornado Warning
NCC101-052100-
/O.NEW.KRAH.TO.W.0044.190905T2022Z-190905T2100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
422 PM EDT Thu Sep 5 2019

The National Weather Service in Raleigh has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Central Johnston County in central North Carolina...

* Until 500 PM EDT

* At 422 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Smithfield, moving west at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
Smithfield, Benson, Selma, Four Oaks, Pine Level and Coats
Crossroads.
 
The current tornado watch in NC expires at 7:00 pm. Wonder if they will issue another one or extend it. Still have a ways to go before Dorian gets past NC.
 
Wind is starting to kick up pretty good here. That tornado warned cell near Smithfield looks like its headed my way

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SD said:
Wind is starting to kick up pretty good here. That tornado warned cell near Smithfield looks like its headed my way

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Got to be closing in on 2" at the house.
 
Already at 0.85" at my location ITB Raleigh. I'll take it given that many (most?) models had far less for the entire event.
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.1N 78.5W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SSE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES
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WeatherNC said:
KLTX really overshooting the center, wonder if this is intentional.
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Trees significantly attenuating the radar beam to the south. Have to select a higher elevation angle (Tilt 2 or above) to get full reflectivity.

Surprised they haven't taken a saw to those trees yet.
 
Here’s the latest wind gust swath. Pretty interesting to have 39 mph winds in Burlington. Note the max winds in SC are much higher earlier. Not sure how Wxbells algorithm is.
8301cb4a9cdf7148743839bae92347a5.jpg
 
Brick Tamland said:
The current tornado watch in NC expires at 7:00 pm. Wonder if they will issue another one or extend it. Still have a ways to go before Dorian gets past NC.
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SPC says a new watch will likely be needed:

Mesoscale Discussion 1932
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2019

Areas affected...Eastern NC

Concerning...Tornado Watch 636...

Valid 052045Z - 052245Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 636 continues.

SUMMARY...Greatest tornado threat is expected to gradually shift
north across ww636.

DISCUSSION...Latest satellite/radar imagery suggests Dorian has
shifted a bit east as it advances along the Carolina Coast. Since
early this morning, the most notable convection has been occurring
within the northeast quad of the cyclone, roughly 100 mi from
Dorian's center. Lightning is noted within the band as it lifts
north, well ahead of the circulation's center. Isolated supercells
continue to form along a corridor, arcing from Sampson County NC -
Onslow County - 32.97N/75.70W, off the NC Coast. This activity
should gradually move north across the remainder of ww636,
continuing well beyond 23z expiration. For these reasons a new
tornado watch will likely be warranted later this evening.
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mcd1932.gif
 
Storm has moved much more easterly recently, according to models will tick back North soon toward Wilmington.
goes16_ir_05L_201909052132.jpg
 
That's a lot of east movement recently. The area from oak island over to carolina beach is going to be awfully close to that thick area of yellow and red on radar to the west of the system

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Shear is insane. Just had a higher sky briefly and mid layer of clouds were moving from ese to wnw and low clouds were screaming from ene to wsw.
 
Shaggy said:
Shear is insane. Just had a higher sky briefly and mid layer of clouds were moving from ese to wnw and low clouds were screaming from ene to wsw.
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No kidding the clouds are moving. Radar has 45 mph over the house at 1000 ft with this next band of heavy rain with some convective elements may get a few gusts in the 30s to near 40 here

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SD said:
That's a lot of east movement recently. The area from oak island over to carolina beach is going to be awfully close to that thick area of yellow and red on radar to the west of the system

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I think it still skirts Cape Lookout and prob makes official LF on the OBX but it has certainly turned NE. Although looks more north than NE on last couple of radar frames, also really building west, those communities about to take a big hit

1567720816875.png
 
metwannabe said:
I think it still skirts Cape Lookout and prob makes official LF on the OBX but it has certainly turned NE. Although looks more north than NE on last couple of radar frames, also really building west, those communities about to take a big hit

View attachment 23231
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At that heading it's going to be a mess for the entire coast

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SD said:
No kidding the clouds are moving. Radar has 45 mph over the house at 1000 ft with this next band of heavy rain with some convective elements may get a few gusts in the 30s to near 40 here

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Yeah makes me wonder if the models showing the very high 925mb winds and surface gusts might be on to something. The low clouds are screaming overhead right now. If the nam is right with the dry air in the lower levels we just might get that wind max
 
Strongest winds of the day so far in the backyard, sustained at 17 gusting to 25

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Not going to miss Cape Fear by much and this heading will drag the left side all the way up the south beaches and hit MHX dead on...or even a bit to the west....

WUNIDS_map.gif
 
As a boy born in Wilmington and who lived there a whole 4 1/2 years, but who has family all over eastern NC, God bless all of you and stay safe! Thanks for all the updates while you're dealing with this!
Phil
 
Downeastnc said:
Not going to miss Cape Fear by much and this heading will drag the left side all the way up the south beaches and hit MHX dead on...or even a bit to the west....

View attachment 23235
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Still moving with too much of a northerly component.
 
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