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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Folks, 0z ICON is east of 18z. Relax I’m going to bed on that note. Foolish some are practically wish casting west west west when there is plenty of time to go north like the euro suggests and even plenty of wiggle room to get further west to Georgia without hitting.
 
deltadog03 said:
ICON landfall at hr 75 on a NW heading into the cape Canaveral area (was moving NW at that point)
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BirdManDoomW said:
Folks, 0z ICON is east of 18z. Relax I’m going to bed on that note. Foolish some are practically wish casting west west west when there is plenty of time to go north like the euro suggests and even plenty of wiggle room to get further west to Georgia without hitting.
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No one is wishcasting. Just commenting on what the model shows.
 
Doesn't seem like there's many changes on the GFS compared to the 18z, but for 36-54 it's stalled and the weakness is open for ots…

edit: and on cue, definitely a hair east at 66, the trends might've stopped right here.
 
GFS starts recurve in about the same spot euro does in 24 hours...climbing the coast *offshore* with the ridge building back over the top at hour 72
 
Deeper trough. Should have more steering to the west similar to the Nam
Edit: Or not.
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GeorgiaGirl said:
Doesn't seem like there's many changes on the GFS compared to the 18z, but for 36-54 it's stalled and the weakness is open for ots…

edit: and on cue, definitely a hair east at 66, the trends might've stopped right here.
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The key for the Carolina's is how long that stall and turn takes.....still looks like the GFS went NW at 78 hrs, probably close enough to Daytona to make for a bad beach day.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Just responding to bird flu that you were not wishcasting.
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oh, no worries..I blocked him so I can't see his post....nah no need to wishcast here. I have family on the treasure coast of FL, so I would be paying attention to this anyway even if I wasn't a Met.....thank you for that back up....
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Folks, 0z ICON is east of 18z. Relax I’m going to bed on that note. Foolish some are practically wish casting west west west when there is plenty of time to go north like the euro suggests and even plenty of wiggle room to get further west to Georgia without hitting.
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Excuse me but you always put your two cents in and this isn't the first time you are saying chill and folks are wish casting west. Just making statement!
 
Looking at the 18z as a refresher, how long this stalls and where is going to be a big deal on where the final destination ends up being. 0z stalls this about 50 miles east of where it did on 18z and that's the difference.
 
It’s worth noting there’s a bit more of a pressure gradient, which would enhance wind Around the storm, even for areas that get no rain 5C445382-C96B-4BAC-A5E7-810D3A45CC9D.jpeg
 
And despite the stall it makes no different for NE SC/Eastern NC on the rain. Oof.

May be starting to zero in on the two main stories. Parts of the Bahamas are about to be leveled and the Carolinas might be about to get a part two of Florence with them not needing it.
 
Trough in the NE is weaker vs 18z on the gfs, weakness still exists but subtropical ridge in the Atlantic isn't suppressed as much. Storm stayed on a NNE heading longer versus going NE and you get 2 possible NC landfall. Small differences mean a lot when 50-100 miles is your margin for error

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GeorgiaGirl said:
Broken record at this point but just what Eastern NC does not need...

View attachment 22684
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Actually kind of dry here, the rivers are all at or below normal levels so we would be able to handle that in terms of major river flooding, however I imagine flash flooding would be a pain in the rear as usual. We do good wind wise on these setups as well, there is usually enhanced winds on the west side and as long as the storm has a healthy core and large wind field which this should have the winds and flash flooding would be biggest concerns....that track the GFS just ran puts me about 40-50 miles from the center....
 
After again looking at the 250 layer, the trough deepens more which in turn leads to stronger NW steering pattern before getting caught up with the ULL.
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Since the NAM has already been thrown around now might as well mention the RGEM which took a significant shift SW in Dorian's track at 00z vs 18z bringing much closer to the east coast of FL.fd57140c-8157-4f89-89e3-a0c35e08b159.gifrgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_54.png
 
That last GFS run just highlights what folks mean when they say 50 miles one way or the other matter so much...50 miles south and its a rough day at the beaches but the eastern eyewall stays offshore and inland folks get little wind etc ....50 miles further NW of what the GFS just ran and you got legit strong TS conditions well inland in NE SC to the Triangle and all of SC coast and eastern NC gets hurricane gust.....
 
Going to go well inland this run, high presses right up agains the coast. The shortwave responsible for getting rid of the system could bring it back in as it deepens.
Edit: Never-mind it pushes it off the coast
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SD said:
Trough in the NE is weaker vs 18z on the gfs, weakness still exists but subtropical ridge in the Atlantic isn't suppressed as much. Storm stayed on a NNE heading longer versus going NE and you get 2 possible NC landfall. Small differences mean a lot when 50-100 miles is your margin for error

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It sure does. Differences in the ridge mean differences in the track, and differences in the track by less than 100 miles means differences in landfall or not. Everything goes hand in hand, and this is going to be hard to nail down this far out.
 
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