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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

HMON a little East when it’s paralleling the coast of Florida, man what a tough storm to predict
 
It's interesting that since 2018, NHC has determined that SFMR may be inaccurate in very intense hurricanes. Despite several SFMR readings supporting Category 5 intensity from different aircraft, NHC has kept Dorian at 130 kt since flight level winds do not yet support Category 5 intensity.

In 2016 and 2017 NHC primarily used SFMR for intensity estimates. Matthew was upgraded to 145 kt based on a SFMR reading of 143 kt, but the maximum flight level winds actually were only 138 kt. If NHC followed the blending technique today, Matthew would be a Category 4. Then you have Irma in 2017, which was a Category 5 operationally with 160 kt winds based on a 160 kt SFMR, but the peak intensity was revised downward to 155 kt in its TCR in favor of blending the flight-level and SFMR readings.
 
pcbjr said:
Intermediate but one good thing ... the cone isn't adjusted west ...
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It takes them awhile to adjust their cone. The other day when the models were obviously shifting east, it took them a day to shift the cone east! They are waiting for a trend
 
I guess the 0z models will tell if we have a trend. Really I don’t think I know anymore though


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deltadog03 said:
Yall check this out...look at the cloud field NORTH of Dorian (ie not associated with the hurricane circulation) check which way the clouds are moving. they are moving E to W pretty nicely. That tells me for sure that the ridge to the north is definitely still in control..

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?par...a-13-48-0-25-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
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Looking at that loop it almost looks like the clouds are heading a bit SW, and also Dorian while it has mostly been moving west, it’s almost non negligible but when you look at it carefully, it almost looks like it was moving WSW, barely noticeable tho
 
And around we go with the HWRF, back to where it was just a couple days ago.
 
730
URNT15 KWBC 010005
NOAA2 2605A DORIAN HDOB 18 20190831
235600 2655N 07444W 7523 02504 0041 +132 +103 084066 067 056 002 00
235630 2653N 07444W 7514 02510 0032 +138 +084 085067 068 058 000 00
235700 2651N 07444W 7516 02501 0020 +142 +098 086068 068 059 000 00
235730 2649N 07444W 7521 02492 0017 +141 +106 085068 068 061 001 00
235800 2647N 07444W 7529 02480 0002 +150 +101 083069 069 060 001 00
235830 2645N 07444W 7517 02486 9998 +147 +098 083071 072 062 001 00
235900 2643N 07444W 7518 02471 9988 +145 +111 083073 075 064 002 00
235930 2641N 07444W 7521 02462 9983 +140 +116 085076 077 065 002 00
000000 2639N 07444W 7518 02455 9972 +141 +109 085079 080 068 000 00
000030 2637N 07444W 7527 02437 9964 +137 +113 084083 084 069 001 00
000100 2635N 07444W 7529 02421 9954 +134 +105 084089 091 073 002 00
000130 2633N 07444W 7518 02415 9936 +133 +112 084095 097 074 001 00
000200 2632N 07443W 7525 02391 9909 +139 +127 089101 103 079 010 00
000230 2630N 07443W 7526 02368 9887 +135 +135 085105 109 083 018 00
000300 2628N 07443W 7526 02337 9845 +144 +137 086114 117 091 028 00
000330 2626N 07443W 7507 02322 9803 +142 //// 085117 120 098 033 01
000400 2624N 07443W 7510 02272 9750 +144 //// 084125 130 113 032 01
000430 2622N 07443W 7507 02205 9673 +142 //// 082139 142 132 070 01
000500 2621N 07443W 7471 02139 9563 +147 //// 082127 136 148 056 01
000530 2619N 07443W 7515 02027 9462 +181 +168 081080 099 149 045 03


NOAA aircraft found more Category 5 winds.
 
I’m a wishcaster/hyper but I don’t even think this has a chance going into Georgia inland after Florida. I’m still largely east of there but not ruling out further north areas near Wilm. I don’t believe it’s a trend with models I’m going with.
 
Personally I was always suspicious of the planned sharp turn ever since Dorian was moving due west for a long time. If it does not start to change course soon then I feel like the NHC will have a lot on their hands
 
18Z Euro at 90 (end): just a hair west of 12Z run but east of 0Z. No reason to think this wouldn’t have recurved enough to at most skirted parts of Carolinas, especially NC like 12Z did. So, I call that good agreement with the 12Z Euro. But 0Z run, with additional data inputs, will be the key one. Everyone set your Euro alarms!
 
GaWx said:
18Z Euro at 90 (end): just a hair west of 12Z run but east of 0Z. No reason to think this wouldn’t have recurved enough to at most skirted parts of Carolinas, especially NC like 12Z did. So, I call that good agreement with the 12Z Euro. But 0Z run, with additional data inputs, will be the key one. Everyone set your Euro alarms!
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It’s really that time of year, summer boringness is over, it’s hurricanes, fall severe wx and failboat winter storms here on out !
 
SimeonNC said:
Personally I was always suspicious of the planned sharp turn ever since Dorian was moving due west for a long time. If it does not start to change course soon then I feel like the NHC will have a lot on their hands
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Keep in mind that a sharp turn for a slow mover and especially a quasi-stalker isn’t that much out of the ordinary. A fast mover would be different.
 
CyclonicFury said:
It's interesting that since 2018, NHC has determined that SFMR may be inaccurate in very intense hurricanes. Despite several SFMR readings supporting Category 5 intensity from different aircraft, NHC has kept Dorian at 130 kt since flight level winds do not yet support Category 5 intensity.

In 2016 and 2017 NHC primarily used SFMR for intensity estimates. Matthew was upgraded to 145 kt based on a SFMR reading of 143 kt, but the maximum flight level winds actually were only 138 kt. If NHC followed the blending technique today, Matthew would be a Category 4. Then you have Irma in 2017, which was a Category 5 operationally with 160 kt winds based on a 160 kt SFMR, but the peak intensity was revised downward to 155 kt in its TCR in favor of blending the flight-level and SFMR readings.
Click to expand...

I’m pretty sure they recorded FL of 152knts just before landfall because I remember talking about at ten percent reduction it was 137knts which is Cat 5.
 
I think Cranky has some interesting points that support we are only about half time, getting ready to start the third quarter tomorrow. Go DAWGS!
 
344
URNT15 KWBC 010125
NOAA2 2605A DORIAN HDOB 26 20190901
011600 2611N 07445W 7490 02128 9555 +164 +159 201123 127 128 008 00
011630 2611N 07447W 7499 02023 9444 +180 +166 201091 100 128 000 03
011700 2612N 07449W 7522 01958 9386 +202 +159 201038 055 034 001 03
011730 2613N 07451W 7513 01973 9390 +195 +162 182008 012 027 000 00
011800 2614N 07453W 7516 01969 9400 +182 +170 105011 014 026 000 00
011830 2615N 07455W 7515 01966 9395 +189 +165 084022 028 034 000 00
011900 2616N 07458W 7514 01979 9405 +188 +162 062045 057 057 003 00
011930 2617N 07500W 7525 02011 9453 +181 +162 041086 102 127 005 03
012000 2618N 07502W 7512 02116 9567 +150 //// 037139 151 153 045 01
012030 2619N 07503W 7529 02182 9670 +143 //// 038134 139 127 058 01
012100 2620N 07505W 7517 02256 9737 +149 +145 039123 126 112 042 00
012130 2621N 07507W 7530 02292 9791 +150 +146 042115 117 100 021 00
012200 2622N 07509W 7542 02322 9826 +161 +137 043108 108 090 009 00
012230 2623N 07511W 7527 02369 9872 +153 +124 042099 103 083 005 00
012300 2624N 07513W 7530 02388 9901 +153 +105 044094 096 080 002 00
012330 2625N 07515W 7512 02433 9934 +142 +120 042087 090 076 000 03
012400 2626N 07517W 7504 02457 9954 +140 +116 041081 082 069 000 03
012430 2627N 07519W 7522 02452 9971 +138 +118 042078 081 065 000 00
012500 2628N 07521W 7512 02471 9983 +135 +122 042074 075 062 001 00
012530 2629N 07523W 7526 02466 0001 +131 +115 043070 070 057 001 00
Click to expand...


153 knots found. Pressure is down to 939.5.
 
18z eps
2c4238df910460292fec23e8f55569d2.jpg


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deltadog03 said:
We are about on the edge here pressure wise, based on recon now, so this would be **current** steeringView attachment 22665
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Yep and still motoring westward, dang thing getting close to Bahamas now too. Better slow down soon

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I think no Florida landfall and the Carolinas will go through the same thing where it’s looks like it will hit then it will miss. This thing knows where the coastline is lol.
 
metwannabe said:
Yep and still motoring westward, dang thing getting close to Bahamas now too. Better slow down soon

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Click to expand...
There is quite a timing difference in sitting over the Bahamas:
Navgem, CMC, Icon is 18z Sunday night
GFS and Legacy is 00z on Sunday night
Euro is 12z on Monday

If it makes it there sooner than 18z, likely more west impact that even presented so far?!?
 
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