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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

OBX May be coming in with a greater risk now that what previously thought.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
OBX May be coming in with a greater risk now that what previously thought.
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Great news for Florida if it curves NE and misses them, but then it puts the Carolinas in danger. Hopefully, it curves enough NE to miss everyone.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Great news for Florida if it curves NE and misses them, but then it puts the Carolinas in danger. Hopefully, it curves enough NE to miss everyone.
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It’s more likely to be a sharper east turn than to say a rare westward inland track to have any meaningful impacts for say Goldsboro, NC. Trends are good let’s keep rolling good to have King EURO on board.
 
I still would be cautious calling it going in the same direction. I know I'm repetitive, but go look at some previous storm cones and tell me that they can flip.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2015/graphics/al11/loop_5NLW.shtml
Joaquin was a good example of going OTS that was thought to go inland initially.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2016/graphics/al14/loop_5W.shtml
Matthew is one everyone keeps bringing up. It kept getting closer to land not farther away.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/MARIA_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line
Maria was OTS but still shows the same trending west principle to some degree
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/IRMA_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line
And Irma completely flipped coasts at one point.
 
I said a few days ago if it goes north of Porto Rico. My gut says it’s going out to sea. I don’t know if that will happen but it’s still a possibility. Even though a Florida landfall still seems very probable


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Tarheel1 said:
Euro notoriously over does the wind forecasts, the slow movement, per Euro, wind would not be an issue hear.
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Especially on the west side, however the east side of the center more so along the coast would probably still experience TS conditions all the way up, these inland runners have often produced strong TS and even hurricane gust over the IBX/OBX of NC even after landfall in the GOM etc....
 
I know it's really arbitrary and there's more factoring in but I think OTS if this thing gets really strong. If not I think we're going to have a Matthew/Hugo-ish like storm.

And I do remember how Matthew was going to skirt OTS initially but I learned on a sports forum at first about the trend in the opposite direction.
 
I think if I lived on the Flordia coast or near I would wait another day or too. This track is still up in the air and spending hundreds of dollars to prepare for nothing (IF)makes local news and people mad unfortunately. The 5pm Advisory will be telling.


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NoSnowATL said:
I think if I lived on the Flordia coast or near I would wait another day or too. This track is still up in the air and spending hundreds of dollars to prepare for nothing (IF)makes local news and people mad unfortunately. The 5pm Advisory will be telling.


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Spent a few hundred, but would rather do that and have nothing happen than go the other way around ...
 
289
WTNT35 KNHC 292045
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 PM AST Thu Aug 29 2019

...DORIAN FORECAST TO INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 67.7W
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM E OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northwestern and central Bahamas should monitor the
progress of Dorian. Watches may be required for portions of this
area on Friday.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 67.7 West. Dorian is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Friday. A west-northwestward
to westward motion is forecast to begin by Friday night and continue
into the weekend. On this track, Dorian should move over the
Atlantic well east of the southeastern and central Bahamas tonight
and on Friday, approach the northwestern Bahamas Saturday, and move
near or over portions of the northwest Bahamas on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and
Dorian is expected to become a major hurricane on Friday, and
remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations this weekend into early next week:

The central Bahamas...1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.
The northwestern Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches.
Coastal sections of the Southeast United States...5 to 10 inches,
isolated 15 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Swells around the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico should gradually diminish today. Swells are likely to
begin affecting the east-facing shores of the Bahamas and the
southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown
204603_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
Posting for those who missed:

Shawn said:
The NHC are using internal forecasting tools that are much better at blending the modeling, handling biases, and h500 than what we can. If you see a substantial shift in their track, it's because those tools, using trends from operational and ensembles, will begin to catch on usually after we see the trend begin on the operational runs.

Plus those guys are pretty smart too, and don't want to swing their cone back and forth too much per model run.
Click to expand...
 
but lets all be completely real here...we know they are not going to windshield wiper this. I don't blame them. Models still all over the place. There is soooo many factors to this. To be honest euro op was very close to crossing florida. That trof is gonna have to dig ALOT to pick this up. Its not october, or even september those trof's don't really dig that much this time of year either.
 
From the NHC discussion:

The National Weather Service has begun 6-hourly upper-air soundings
across portions of the mid-Atlantic and southeastern United States.
Six-hourly balloons are also being launched in Bermuda and Nassau in
the Bahamas. A NOAA G-IV synoptic surveillance mission is ongoing,
and the data from this flight will be assimilated into the 0000 UTC
model cycle.
 
deltadog03 said:
but lets all be completely real here...we know they are not going to windshield wiper this. I don't blame them. Models still all over the place. There is soooo many factors to this. To be honest euro op was very close to crossing florida. That trof is gonna have to dig ALOT to pick this up. Its not october, or even september those trof's don't really dig that much this time of year either.
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Yeah that's part of why I don't buy the whole OTS argument. It'll have little impact on the storm as a whole. The close highs and lows to it have more of an impact and are the key players.
 
Im sure its just a little short term thing, but does it look like its been slowing down a bit today? Especially recently
 
ForsythSnow said:
Talk about a "huge change" to the cone. It's practically identical to the old one.
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Let's put it this way ... a tad south but not much, but also a tad of a suggestion of a recurve more NW once we get south of Orlando ... the mess continues ...
 
The NHC track didn't necessarily change but the forward speed has as it approaches Florida and the 5 day cone has expanded. it's South of Florida and up in the Georgia. So while it's not massive changes I think it's a subtle change that shows the probabilities of what the models are now hinting at.

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the Funny thing about the last run of the GFS is that the part of the trough that kicks out Dorian would give a plains a more May/June severe weather look with a cutoff like that pumping in weak-moderate low level shear and solid instability, just something on the side here that was a little interesting C0C4C4FB-EBEE-4963-8918-DFB40747D25C.jpeg
 
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