• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Hurricane Dorian

ForsythSnow said:
Good news is that we have an ongoing environment drop mission and 2 more planes on their way into the storm right now. Bad news is if the data is being blended into the current ICON, then you get the point.
Click to expand...
There was some talk of that data making it into some of the 12Z model runs but I'm guessing that did not happen? It should definitely be in tonight's.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 
metwannabe said:
As of now I'd say anyone along the eastern seaboard to Tx have a chance.... heck just look at the EPS members from ots to Mexico.

With that said, personally I'd lean more towards an area of say Fl/Ga line west to Tx, that high is strong and should keep this well south of us
Click to expand...

The only concern would be the models weakening the ridge over time allowing a more nnw turn. Outside of that happening this one should stay south of us here in NC.
 
Is this storm being a fish completely off the table? Seems like ALL the discussion is about shred or no, intense or weak, and obviously, where it's going. Assuming it survives, it seems there is consensus it IS coming toward the SE coast. Is this accurate?
 
Here comes GFS.....lets see if it follows. If it does, it will be the first time for this storm.
 
NWTENN said:
Is this storm being a fish completely off the table? Seems like ALL the discussion is about shred or no, intense or weak, and obviously, where it's going. Assuming it survives, it seems there is consensus it IS coming toward the SE coast. Is this accurate?
Click to expand...
Models having a tough time because of its small size.
 
NWTENN said:
Is this storm being a fish completely off the table? Seems like ALL the discussion is about shred or no, intense or weak, and obviously, where it's going. Assuming it survives, it seems there is consensus it IS coming toward the SE coast. Is this accurate?
Click to expand...
There's about a 1% chance this thing goes OTS and misses all land except PR or Hispaniola from what I think. At the sharpest recurve it would still hit NC, but that's on the extreme end of the possibilities. The other extreme is it going way west in the Gulf into Mexico. I'm pretty sure this is going to be a US threat.
 
Shaggy said:
The only concern would be the models weakening the ridge over time allowing a more nnw turn. Outside of that happening this one should stay south of us here in NC.
Click to expand...

It would have to stay weaker for that to become likely. The stronger it becomes in the mid-range, the farther west the track.
 
NHC doesn't agree with going across the island anymore. GFS doesn't have the weakness in the ridge built in.

5:00 pm discussion:

"Dorian should turn northwestward into a
small weakness in the ridge, allowing the tropical cyclone to pass
near or between western Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican
Republic. By late Thursday and Friday, the ridge is forecast to
build back in as an upper-level trough lifts out to the north,
causing Dorian to turn back toward the west-northwest in the
vicinity of the central Bahamas."
 
Legacy made it through the weakening ridge. It's just a tad faster than icon....which may have a different result.
 
Favorable upper level environment on the legacy GFS is putting it lightly. If Dorian makes it to the Bahamas, the upper level environment is extremely excellent & dare I say ideal...

There's an upper level low in 3 of 4 quadrants around Dorian ventilating it by day 4, thus providing it 3 outflow channels (one to the east, south, & west).

Better hope this dies over Hispaniola because a small storm like this can take off in a hurry if it's given a chance.

gfs-legacy_uv200_watl_16.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Favorable upper level environment on the legacy GFS is putting it lightly. If Dorian makes it to the Bahamas, the upper level environment is extremely excellent & dare I say ideal...

There's an upper level low in 3 of 4 quadrants around Dorian ventilating it by day 4, thus providing it 3 outflow channels (one to the east, south, & west).

Better hope this dies over Hispaniola...

View attachment 22038
Click to expand...
Yep. If it clears PR and Hispaniola, it's going to blow up into a major I bet. Given that possible path, I hope Floridians are at least looking at preparations. They'll have 3 days if it moves at that pace after we know if it clears or not to take action.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Favorable upper level environment on the legacy GFS is putting it lightly. If Dorian makes it to the Bahamas, the upper level environment is extremely excellent & dare I say ideal...

There's an upper level low in 3 of 4 quadrants around Dorian ventilating it by day 4, thus providing it 3 outflow channels (one to the east, south, & west).

Better hope this dies over Hispaniola because a small storm like this can take off in a hurry if it's given a chance.

View attachment 22038
Click to expand...
Are ya saying, it's possible to be more intense than the model is showing?
 
Henry2326 said:
Are ya saying, it's possible to be more intense than the model is showing?
Click to expand...
Absolutely yes in a scenario like this where u could have a very small storm encountering an extremely favorable environment. The biggest question marks now are what it looks like under the hood and how the models will respond which we’ll have some answers to tonight and if it survives past Hispaniola. Anything from an open wave to major hurricane is clearly and legitimately still on the table with this one without much room for error in either direction
 
Webberweather53 said:
Absolutely yes in a scenario like this where u could have a very small storm encountering an extremely favorable environment. The biggest question marks now are what it looks like under the hood and how the models will respond which we’ll have some answers to tonight and if it survives past Hispaniola. Anything from an open wave to major hurricane is clearly and legitimately still on the table with this one without much room for error in either direction
Click to expand...
Webb,
One of those rare times I'm gonna be selfish here ... open wave suits me just fine, thank you ... o_O ... now back to work ...
 
The overall environment around this system and in front until it gets to near the Bahamas is a real convoluted mess. You have td6 to the NW and a upper low backing SW between td6 and Dorian then eventually in front of the system. It's going to be difficult for the models to really pin down a track given the amount of interaction going on between these and how much of a weakness is left in the subtropical ridge.

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
 
If it wasn’t for the fact that Dorian has been on and off with intense convection, and hasn’t managed a CDO, I’d think it’s a weak hurricane at this point, that Convective burst is probably the strongest one I’ve seen
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
If it wasn’t for the fact that Dorian has been on and off with intense convection, and hasn’t managed a CDO, I’d think it’s a weak hurricane at this point, that Convective burst is probably the strongest one I’ve seen
Click to expand...
The microwave imagery is very interesting and reflects a strengthening core.
gifsBy12hr_03.gif
 
Arcc said:
Both HWRF and HMON say RIP Dorian in the short range. That aught to be fun for forecasters.
Click to expand...
Yeah this is probably driving all the TC mets crazy trying to predict where this is going to go. I'm going to try and put what I see it as in one sentence:

It's hard to bet against the Euro and the UKMET, but the GFS is way different as usual, but the HMON and HWRF pair throw a wildcard into the equation by agreeing with the GFS as they are hurricane specific models, however the NAVGEM, ICON, and Legacy GFS all agree with the Euro camp.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top