Tropical Hurricane Dorian

[BufordWX]

Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory 7:

...DORIAN CONTINUES TO HEAD FOR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...

LOCATION: 11.7N 55.3W
ABOUT 300 MI ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 410 MI ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT: W AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 MB

New Watches/Warnings:

The Barbados Meteorological Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Dominica.

NHC Forecast Track/Intensity:


12H: 60 MPH
24H: 65 MPH
36H: 65 MPH
48H: 70 MPH
72H: 75 MPH
96H: 45 MPH...INLAND
120H: 30 MPH...OVER WATER

Key Messages:

 

[Henry2326]

Key takeaway from discussion:

"The track models are in good agreement that the cyclone will
gradually turn toward the west-northwest on Monday. A slight
weakness in the ridge near 70W longitude in a couple of days should
induce a gradual turn to the northwest later in the forecast period."

 

[BufordWX]

00z ICON has Dorian alive and north of Hispaniola at hour 108 heading northwest.

 

[BufordWX]

00z ICON has Dorian alive and north of Hispaniola at hour 108 heading northwest.View attachment 21983

Hour 141 down to 989 mb and looks to be heading into the GOM.

 

[BufordWX]

Hour 141 down to 989 mb and looks to be heading into the GOM.View attachment 21986

End of the run has it down to 986 mb in the GOM.

 

[accu35]

 

[accu35]

THE GEM IS LOOKING GOOD

View attachment 21985

That's 12z

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

That's 12z

ITS GONE

 

[accu35]

ITS GONE

Lol, your good.

 

[Brent]

GFS wrecks it over Hispanola again

though there is a weak vort in the SE Bahamas at 120

 

[Brent]

Still tinyyyyy when it "hits" Fort Lauderdale on Saturday Evening

 

[accu35]

Still tinyyyyy when it "hits" Fort Lauderdale on Saturday Evening

View attachment 21989

But, its something there now than previous runs, lol.

 

[accu35]

Both gfs brings whatever to the gulf

 

[accu35]

Little engine that could

 

[Brent]

GFS Legacy is similar with a very weak vort tracking from Miami to Pensacola

 

[BufordWX]

Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory 7A:

...COMPACT DORIAN EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY...

LOCATION: 11.8N 55.8W
ABOUT 270 MI ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 375 MI ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT: W AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 MB

 

[BufordWX]

00z GEFS is more to the north.

 

[Brent]

HWRF much much weaker again no major in the Bahamas this run

 

[Brent]

While it is much weaker its strengthening in the Bahamas at the end of the run

 

[deltadog03]

As of now I personally think this is headed to the shredder.