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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Just like the 12Z EPS was vs its prior runs, the 18Z GEFS is by far the most active GEFS of at least the last 4 with about half (~11) of the members with sub ~1,000 mb and ~4 Hs, all of which hit either the east coast of FL or the US Gulf coast. These numbers are way higher than the earlier GEFS runs.
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...13.0N 59.1W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
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It all depends on the high pressure, after she hits dry air, will it expand it contract, no modeling is accurate right now
 
And why is the fv3 gfs model not picking up on it, just throwing that out there that model is trash, lagged behind everything in the tropics so far, legacy is a better model with these systems
 
The HWRF is messed up spooky. A tropical system that opens back into a wave, meaders through the Bahamas before quickly strengthening into a strong TS/weak hurricane before landfall in south FL then gulf bound in the end of August.
 
SimeonNC said:
I feel so morally conflicted, on one hand I don't want people in The Dominican Republic/Haiti to have to deal with this storm. On the other, I don't wanna potentially strong system hitting the U.S.

Ugh...

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Neither has to happen ... sheer itself could be a God-send ...
 
You know what, the 18z FV3 kinda hinted at what the last HWRF had. Shredder gets it, but it somehow reforms later in the gulf. Although in the FV3 it's a tropical storm.

I've seen the FV3 have suppression issues though, so while it was on this storm first, we might be able to toss it's tracks even on hurricanes if it comes up that it comes north. We'll see...
 
Arcc said:
The HWRF is messed up spooky. A tropical system that opens back into a wave, meaders through the Bahamas before quickly strengthening into a strong TS/weak hurricane before landfall in south FL then gulf bound in the end of August.
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Now where have i seen that before...
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Dry air and shear taking its toll. You can clearly see the CDO being eroded on the northern side.

Question is can it recover?View attachment 22045
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Hopefully not, but the problem is that the model consensus has it weakening about now and throughout the Caribbean to a wave meaning this is fully expected. Unfortunately, that same consensus is getting more aggressive regarding regeneration once leaving the Caribbean due to ideal conditions of high SSTs, low shear, high dewpoints, and very little land interaction. Don’t be fooled if this weakens to a wave in the E Caribbean.
 
GaWx said:
Hopefully not, but the problem is that the model consensus has it weakening about now and throughout the Caribbean to a wave meaning this is fully expected. Unfortunately, that same consensus is getting more aggressive regarding regeneration once leaving the Caribbean due to ideal conditions of high SSTs, low shear, high dewpoints, and very little land interaction. Don’t be fooled if this weakens to a wave in the E Caribbean.
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That is where the worst case could unfold. A weak storm that gets by the big islands with little impact. Two days with very good conditions under a big ridge and you could bring this ashore in a peaking state. We have seen this twice over the past two years.
 
GaWx said:
Hopefully not, but the problem is that the model consensus has it weakening about now and throughout the Caribbean to a wave meaning this is fully expected. Unfortunately, that same consensus is getting more aggressive regarding regeneration once leaving the Caribbean due to ideal conditions of high SSTs, low shear, high dewpoints, and very little land interaction. Don’t be fooled if this weakens to a wave in the E Caribbean.
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Yeah the quick forward speed over the Bahamas might be the only thing keeping it from being a major.


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It sure would be something if the Legacy does better with this one than the FV3.
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 59.7W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
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BHS1975 said:
ICON a tick more NE. Anyone know how it did last year?


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Yeah but a hard straight west hr 105. Matter fact next few frames icon starts trucking southwest
 
cd2play said:
Wondering if it crosses Florida and hops into the Gulf.
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Its definitely a realistic possibility

Recent history would favor if there was a big change it being more west vs east but we've got a long way to go with this one. Hispanola can do funny things
 
The ICON ended up plowing into Cuba.

tbh if that were to be the track I think the intensity of it is too high once it goes through, but who knows what would happen in the Gulf if it didn't get wrecked completely.

edit: lol I think the ICON would eventually be an issue for Mexico based off that track.
 
The GFS degenerates this thing into an open wave as it has been doing but for a change, it looks a bit further north than the shredder and doesn't interact as much with it. Lets see if that leads to any changes.

Edit: aaanndddd not much so far. Looks like a mess to me on the vort and wind map. Would be a good thing.
 
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I spoke too soon. Probably not going to be major but the GFS looks a lot better organized here compared to 18z on these maps...a trend starting maybe:

1566878590090.png
 
UKMET Into SE FL and across Lake Okeechobee

GFS actually has a closed low approaching landfall at 126 for the first time
 
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