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Tropical Hurricane Dorian
- Thread starter Metwannabe
- Start date
Shaggy
Member
They mention that pesky ukmet still being north and stronger. Dont sleep.on the ukmet it has a decent history. Sure it misses a bunch of storms too but I've learned to not ignore it. Especially with Dorian strengthening steadily now as compared to the weaker gfs and euro.
pcbjr
Member
Lots of sheer in front ... Point 1; steering currents are south, Point 2. Odds are, it gets weak or shredded, and whether it then goes with currents and regenerates in the BOC or GOM is way too far out there, or whether the front coming down in a few days sucks some remnant torn rain north and causes some regeneration or death of the system is another too far out there ... just MHO mind you ...
GFS legacy cleared the islands and looks to be taking a run towards Florida
Cadi40
Member
Convection is impressive in the center of Dorian, and it's seemed that Dorian has made the dry air around itself more conducive for convection.
pcbjr
Member
What run? What hour? Can you post a link or map?
pcbjr
Member
Thanks! Always helps to see ...Weak but still something 18z hr 144
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BHS1975
Member
Hot towers going up.
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pcbjr
Member
This is also something worth considering, when looking at the matrix ...
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-74.21,21.02,1907
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/orthographic=-99.29,49.14,586
(Very time sensitive)
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-74.21,21.02,1907
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/orthographic=-99.29,49.14,586
(Very time sensitive)
Cadi40
Member
I'm probably going to jinx it but I don't see this going into the GOM.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Definitely getting a better center. You can tell it's forming well at the end.
pcbjr
Member
This will probably curse the entire SE with a storm no one wants ... but here goes ... it has a minefield to cross ... blindfolded ...Definitely getting a better center. You can tell it's forming well at the end.
Brent
Member
Definitely tries to reform approaching Florida its dead past Hispanola
Oh and this is valid Saturday Night
Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory 6A:
...DORIAN HEADED FOR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...
LOCATION: 11.6N 54.8W
ABOUT 335 MI ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 445 MI ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT: W AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 MB
...DORIAN HEADED FOR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...
LOCATION: 11.6N 54.8W
ABOUT 335 MI ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 445 MI ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT: W AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 MB
Brent
Member
HWRF got happy again a hurricane and missing the Shredder!
18z GEFS definitely further north
Shaggy
Member
Anyone got maps for the ukmet?
Cadi40
Member
This might be a problem for Florida or the Carolinas in the future.