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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

mrdaddyman said:
Is it just me or does anyone else think that the friction of this thing blowing against the mountain range can cause it to wobble right, between the 2 islands? Looks like simple physics to me, but maybe that's too simple of an explanation.
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These things can definitely bounce around the islands.
 
12Z EPS says watch out especially S half of FL 9/1-4 and Gulf thereafter
 
GaWx said:
12Z EPS says watch out especially S half of FL 9/1-4 and Gulf thereafter
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That has been the trend today with the models for sure. Of course, that could change, but right now that is the area of focus.
 
Arcc said:
These things can definitely bounce around the islands.
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It seems Lane had some wonky track around Hawaii due to close proximity and frictional craziness that I couldn't even begin to try to explain
 
Cadi40 said:
Does anyone actually think Dorian actually has a chance at a SC/NC landfall, aside from the people that live there?
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As of now I'd say anyone along the eastern seaboard to Tx have a chance.... heck just look at the EPS members from ots to Mexico.

With that said, personally I'd lean more towards an area of say Fl/Ga line west to Tx, that high is strong and should keep this well south of us
 
Even though it is from the remnants of Dorian, himself, it is as almost as if the model consensus is showing a new storm likely forming in or E of the Bahamas regardless of what Dorian does in the Caribbean due to then near ideal conditions.
 
EURO ensembles show the stronger the storm it escapes out to sea or due west to near Texas-LA.
 
metwannabe said:
As of now I'd say anyone along the eastern seaboard to Tx have a chance.... heck just look at the EPS members from ots to Mexico.

With that said, personally I'd lean more towards an area of say Fl/Ga line west to Tx, that high is strong and should keep this well south of us
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Yep, in this setup the stronger it gets north of Hispaniola, the farther west it goes.
 
Cadi40 said:
Does anyone actually think Dorian actually has a chance at a SC/NC landfall, aside from the people that live there?
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Yes NHC says it’s too early to know anything. I prefer a Florida or further west location to bring rain for Wilkes so I’m not wish casting a Carolina hit.
 
One day makes a huge difference. If it slows down or gets hung up somewhere along the way, the high has already moved along and It goes further north. It's just a model of different scenarios.
The takeaways are:
(1) high probability of US landfall
(2) the possibility exist for intensification
Nothing more to take from this at this time.
 
GaWx said:
Using my eyeballs, I roughly estimate 75% of the 51 or so 12Z EPS members have a TD+ and 30% have a H at any point off the SE US coast. These are big upticks.
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I just figured your eyeballs were more in tune then my eyeballs... ;)
 
TD 6 (future Erin?) having some effect too, let's see how fast it gets out of the way, it's certainly playing a role in the high weakness that's allowing the northward movement
 
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