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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

ForsythSnow said:
This is not good. A mere extra shift to the north and it'll maintain hurricane strength the entire way I think. Hopefully we can get some recon data later.
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Yep....icon, navgem, ukmet all look brillant....for the day. Lol
 
Shawn said:
At this point, this storm has the Florida upto SAV, GA look to it.
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Good luck with that.....been a long time since a storm breeched that topography. IMO, either east Florida or Charleston. Look at hugo's path. If it gets aloft of the islands, it's Carolina.
 
Que the social media hype. Maybe it will help jinx it out to sea after the Bahamas or keep it very weak. The NHC doesn’t even know and people wanna throw out names like Hugo or entering the gulf. Lol. I’m not sure if a cone is the right idea this day and age. I think a large bubble that says tropical development possible would be better for many or most cases.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Que the social media hype. Maybe it will help jinx it out to sea after the Bahamas or keep it very weak. The NHC doesn’t even know and people wanna throw out names like Hugo or entering the gulf. Lol. I’m not sure if a cone is the right idea this day and age. I think a large bubble that says tropical development possible would be better for many or most cases.
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Read carefully.......PATH of HUGO
 
Getting an uneasy feeling for this area. Had been hoping for a break from the last 3 years of big SE US threats/hits and large effects in my area in 2016 (Matthew’s wind, flooding rains, and storm surge for low ares) and 2017 (Irma’s storm surge even worse for low areas) but certainly not panicking as odds still strongly against anything real bad this far out, of course. One new property I have won’t be covered for FEMA in time due to required 30 day wait even though not technically in flood zone. Hopefully it wouldn’t flood from surge. Very highly unlikely since up at about 16 foot elevation (that’s why not flood zone) unless this were to be something not seen since 1800s.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Que the social media hype. Maybe it will help jinx it out to sea after the Bahamas or keep it very weak. The NHC doesn’t even know and people wanna throw out names like Hugo or entering the gulf. Lol. I’m not sure if a cone is the right idea this day and age. I think a large bubble that says tropical development possible would be better for many or most cases.
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You promise?
 
GaWx said:
Getting an uneasy feeling for this area. Had been hoping for a break from the last 3 years of big SE US threats/hits and large effects in my area in 2016 (Matthew’s wind, flooding rains, and storm surge for low ares) and 2017 (Irma’s storm surge even worse for low areas) but certainly not panicking as odds still strongly against anything real bad this far out, of course. One new property I have won’t be covered for FEMA in time due to required 30 day wait even though not technically in flood zone. Hopefully it wouldn’t flood from surge. Unlikely since up at about 16 foot elevation (that’s why not flood zone) unless this were to be something not seen since 1800s.
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Yeah this is one of those rare instances where the GA coast could be directly impacted if the high is just a bit weaker and the storm is strong enough. If that's the case I have reasons to be worried as well, especially if the storm were to come close like Irma did. I don't want the winds blasting inland if it was a hurricane at landfall.

On another note, the ICON levels off in the southern Bahamas and goes between Cuba and FL into the gulf, which would just make it a major in the gulf in the end.
 
That updated NHC track doesn't look good even if it stays where it's at. At the very least it looks like a flooding risk for eastern Florida and the Georgia coast based off that.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
That updated track doesn't look good even if it stays where it's at. At the very least it looks like a flooding risk for eastern Florida and the Georgia coast based off that.
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You talking bout the ICON or the NHC cone?
 
GFS Legacy might potentially be a big problem but the track seems weird to me. Don't have it fully loaded but for whatever reason, it takes a major north jump before it hits the shredder. 990 MB right now at 96.
 
Last week the WRAL mets were already saying it wouldn't be a big deal for us because it'll get shredded by the islands. Hope they didn't speak too soon.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Last week the WRAL mets were already saying it wouldn't be a big deal for us because it'll get shredded by the islands. Hope they didn't speak too soon.
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For NC I wouldn't even worry about it regardless. It's going to be blocked by the high. It's more of a threat to FL, GA, and the southern part of SC if it goes far enough north, and FL to LA if it goes for the Gulf. If it gets shredded, then only PR and Hispaniola.

However it it goes way north of the expected path NC could be impacted.
 
GFS Legacy makes landfall in Florida as...I suppose a Category 2 and then goes a bit left it looks like to me.
 
Legacy, ICON, and NAVGEM all have it hitting FL around the same place. Legacy with the double landfall in FL. Yikes!
 
I think the CMC lost it's mind. It hit the shredder dead on and although it does dissipate, it doesn't get totally shredded.
 
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