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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

For those of us near the coast not wanting to deal with the risk of a hurricane hit, overall model guidance trends are quite encouraging. However, it is too soon to celebrate as the model consensus could still be wrong like it was for genesis outside of the GFS and it doesn’t seem to be falling apart at least yet. The tiny size makes it harder to predict than normal for the models.
 
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GaWx said:
For those of us near the coast not wanting to deal with the risk of a hurricane hit, overall model guidance trends are quite encouraging. However, it is too soon to celebrate as the model consensus could still be wrong like it was for genesis outside of the GFS and it doesn’t seem to be falling apart at least yet. The tiny size makes it harder to predict than normal for the models.
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Yeah one large flare up that manages to sustain itself and it could go from a TS to a strong hurricane in less than a day. However on the same token, if it hits shear it's pretty much done.
 
And right now it looks go be going through a blow up phase but it's not directly over the COC from what I can tell. It needs to crank up more convection if it wants to survive.
 
ForsythSnow said:
And right now it looks go be going through a blow up phase but it's not directly over the COC from what I can tell. It needs to crank up more convection if it wants to survive.
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I was just looking and it looks like maybe it's slightly tilted? Seems to be a mid level swirl right in the blow up but the LLC just a tad and I mean a tad east?
 
My takeaway from 11:00 discussion:

Quote:
"However, the large range of possibilities
includes both Dorian going north of Hispaniola and remaining a
hurricane and the small cyclone dissipating completely over
Hispaniola."
 
Its gonna be very hard for Dorian to maintain its strength with the track its going. Going into moderate shear and through the islands. I just dont see it regaining anything after, only chance its going to have is north of the islands into the conductive area of development I can be wrong tho. If it were a bigger size storm things would be different
 
Got to take note of the mention of the ukmet in then11am disco. It nailed irma's run in with Cuba and led the way with florence's southwest motion early last year.
 
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By watching the 12z models, I find it hard to believe that Dorian will make it Hurricane status. If trend continues, I think the forecast intensity will drop, but I could be wrong.
 
Forget the future, looks like it’s starting to get some cloud tops trying to spike at -90C right now, Convective bursts look stronger, it’s trying, if it manages to get some consistent storms around the LLC, than this thing may still strengthen quick before it heads into a unfavorable environment, even if it doesn’t have the best chance to strengthen at short term
 
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Myfrotho704_ said:
Forget the future, looks like it’s starting to get some cloud tops spiking at -90C right now, Convective bursts look stronger, it’s trying, if it manages to get some consistent storms around the LLC, than this thing may still strengthen quick before it heads into a unfavorable environment, even if it doesn’t have the best chance to strengthen at short term
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TWC peeps did mention it could strengthen back if it survives the shear. I'm with ya, forget the future if it could get its act together quicker it could be a different story. I've seen crapy model runs turn into something down the road
 
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