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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Euro now has a tropical storm approaching Florida strongest run so far. Normally i wouldnt say this was a big deal but considering it was dead on prior runsecmwf_z500_mslp_watl_7.png

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And now were recurving up the coast

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GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AND LOOKS TO BE GETTING SOME CONVECTION GOING ON THE SOUTHSIDE WHERE DRY AIR WAS INTERFERING WITH IT EARLIER
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NHC nudge the cone north.....one more move north and possibly miss the island.

"The track models have
shifted slightly to the right or north this cycle, and the NHC
track forecast has been nudged in that direction."

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No mention of Ukmet in the update, but does say

"It should be noted
that the GFS and ECMWF have been very consistent in showing Dorian
dissipating over the Caribbean Sea. Due to the wide range of the
model solutions, the NHC intensity forecast remains of low
confidence. It should be noted that compact tropical cyclones like
Dorian are often challenging to predict."
 
I'm in deltadog camp still for right now. Think the shredder is gonna save some folks a lot of $.
Saw this posted and as of right now both ens groups from last night track this storm right over those big mtns.

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Henry2326 said:
No mention of Ukmet in the update, but does say

"It should be noted
that the GFS and ECMWF have been very consistent in showing Dorian
dissipating over the Caribbean Sea. Due to the wide range of the
model solutions, the NHC intensity forecast remains of low
confidence. It should be noted that compact tropical cyclones like
Dorian are often challenging to predict."
Click to expand...
The last line sums up Dorian perfectly. We’ve seen quite a few hurricane masterfully dance their way around Hispaniola in recent years. It’s still too early for me to say for sure , but I’m leaning towards a miss to the north. Even if it doesn’t perhaps it’s compact size will work to it’s advantage.
 
Weatherlover92 said:
The last line sums up Dorian perfectly. We’ve seen quite a few hurricane masterfully dance their way around Hispaniola in recent years. It’s still too early for me to say for sure , but I’m leaning towards a miss to the north. Even if it doesn’t perhaps it’s compact size will work to it’s advantage.
Click to expand...

Yeah a larger storm would get more disrupted by the mountains just by passing just to the north just like Irma which never fully recovered the inner core.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
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Personal opinion.....I think legacy is moving it too fast. a day or 2 ahead of the other models. Given more time in favorable conditions, it should recover. Also, appears icon is the only one giving significant break in the high, which would push it further up the east coast.
 
Henry2326 said:
Personal opinion.....I think legacy is moving it too fast. a day or 2 ahead of the other models. Given more time in favorable conditions, it should recover. Also, appears icon is the only one giving significant break in the high, which would push it further up the east coast.
Click to expand...

Yeah being an eastern NC resident my concerns are down significantly with Dorian. Going to be hard to get it to turn up the coast unless something changes in the models.
 
Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory 8A:

...COMPACT DORIAN GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS LATER TODAY...

LOCATION: 12.0N 57.0W
ABOUT 205 MI ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 315 MI ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT: W AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 MB
 
Henry2326 said:
Personal opinion.....I think legacy is moving it too fast. a day or 2 ahead of the other models. Given more time in favorable conditions, it should recover. Also, appears icon is the only one giving significant break in the high, which would push it further up the east coast.
Click to expand...

It all depends on the strength it hits Hispaniola at. If it hits it as a compact strong hurricane with a tight core the chances at recovery are just about none. If it hits it as a weaker TS, it could recover some.
 
Arcc said:
It all depends on the strength it hits Hispaniola at. If it hits it as a compact strong hurricane with a tight core the chances at recovery are just about none. If it hits it as a weaker TS, it could recover some.
Click to expand...
Size is another thing. If it grows somewhat larger than what it is now then it would have a harder time reorganizing from a direct hit. If it stays relatively small but large enough to not be completely lost to the mountains then it definitely would have a chance.
 
Hispaniola has eaten more than it's share of TC's over the years, we've all seen numerous storms forecast to hit it and then regain strength but more times than not TC's never fully recover from those 10k' peaks. With that said, if I'm not mistaken the eastern portions of the island are not as mountainous and forecast trends want to take it in that direction.... still very close proximity to the main mountain chain which still would cause serious disruption. But until it hits the shredder head on I've got an uneasy feeling in my gut....
 
Looks like the ukmet takes it across Hispaniola and then has a weak system nearing the tip of Fl at the end of it's run, of course this could be problematic later on in the GOM. I hate it for Haiti, our benefit comes at a high sacrifice from them

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metwannabe said:
Hispaniola has eaten more than it's share of TC's over the years, we've all seen numerous storms forecast to hit it and then regain strength but more times than not TC's never fully recover from those 10k' peaks. With that said, if I'm not mistaken the eastern portions of the island are not as mountainous and forecast trends want to take it in that direction.... still very close proximity to the main mountain chain which still would cause serious disruption. But until it hits the shredder head on I've got an uneasy feeling in my gut....
Click to expand...
Yeah it's not going to do as much on the current path. Tick the path 20 or 40 miles north and it'll barely weaken.
Hispaniola.jpg
 
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