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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Fwiw the GEM has a 991mb hitting central/northern Florida then exiting into the GOM before recurving NE into the Florida panhandle and going into central Georgia7AD846A1-5D69-413D-BC98-0AE137D91A41.jpeg
0411C4B8-10F9-43C5-8F88-5F2FCF6BD0A8.jpeg
 
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Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory 11A:

...DORIAN APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS...

LOCATION 13.2N 60.2W
ABOUT 70 MI SE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT: WNW AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1005 MB

Changes to Watches/Warnings:

The government of Barbados has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Barbados.
 
Looks like some kind of center relocation maybe going on

Its definitely struggling atm

I would definitely not rule out any scenarios at this point
 
HWRF looks to be near hurricane strength at landfall. Kind of surprised it hasnt really blown it up again. Its notorious for that

hwrf_ref_05L_40 (1).png

hwrf_satIR_05L_21 (1).png
 
0Z Euro: much weaker at hour 84 vs prior 2 runs due largely to higher shear.
 
0Z Euro will landfall in FL a little north of the 12Z it appears. NE FL bound.

Edit: Daytona landfall between 132 and 138. Tiny storm again.
 
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Super weak

Is there something in the Bahamas on the Euro keeping it from strengthening? Not sure I buy that unless its just really disrupted by the shear and Hispanola

ecmwf_z500_mslp_watl_7 (2).png
 
06z GFS and legacy get to the same place, Daytona Beach, with legacy much more intense than GFS.
 
2 comments from the 5:00 NHC discussion:

So they split the difference when they don't know.....interesting. I guess its better than saying nothing.
"The NHC intensity forecast lies
near the upper end of the guidance in the short term, while the
system is over the Caribbean Sea, but near the middle of the
guidance envelope after that."

For perspective, the error could be:
Daytona Beach to Miami - 258 miles
Daytona Beach to Savannah - 231 miles
"The new NHC track forecast is largely unchanged while Dorian is i
the Caribbean, but it has been shifted slightly to the north thereafter. Users are reminded not to focus on the details of the extended track forecast as the
average 5-day track error is around 200 miles."
 
Henry2326 said:
2 comments from the 5:00 NHC discussion:

So they split the difference when they don't know.....interesting. I guess its better than saying nothing.
"The NHC intensity forecast lies
near the upper end of the guidance in the short term, while the
system is over the Caribbean Sea, but near the middle of the
guidance envelope after that."

For perspective, the error could be:
Daytona Beach to Miami - 258 miles
Daytona Beach to Savannah - 231 miles
"The new NHC track forecast is largely unchanged while Dorian is i
the Caribbean, but it has been shifted slightly to the north thereafter. Users are reminded not to focus on the details of the extended track forecast as the
average 5-day track error is around 200 miles."
Click to expand...
Well here we are, 5 days out. The question (I guess, one of many questions), assuming this thing survives and strengthens, which direction will the 200 mile error be in?
 
Another hurricane hunter aircraft is currently investigating Dorian and we'll see what they find in a bit.

Last night's mission generally found Dorian to be slightly weaker than the NHC estimated and the LLC was barely closed on the SW side.

First glance this morning certainly doesn't seem there's been much of a change in overall organization since the planes left last night.
recon_AF309-0505A-DORIAN.png
 
Dorian definitely looks like crap on the Martinque radar. As Levi says in this tweet, if the storm actually was intensifying, you'd see a strong curved band structure wrapping around the low-level center. and It's honestly hard to make out where the center is. The convection really looks no different than what we deal w/ on a regular basis over the SE US in the summer.

 
Webberweather53 said:
Dorian definitely looks like crap on the Martinque radar. As Levi says in this tweet, if the storm actually was intensifying, you'd see a strong curved band structure wrapping around the low-level center. and It's honestly hard to make out where the center is. The convection really looks no different than what we deal w/ on a regular basis over the SE US in the summer.

Click to expand...

You think its gonna survive?
 
Webberweather53 said:
It may not survive in that Dorian could become an open wave sometime in the next day or two but it's becoming increasingly likely that the meat of the system will survive the trek over the Greater Antilles and enter the southeastern Bahamas late this week
Click to expand...
With 3 days for some people somewhere on the east coast to get to safety IF its intensifying......sounds like fun
 
Webberweather53 said:
Dorian definitely looks like crap on the Martinque radar. As Levi says in this tweet, if the storm actually was intensifying, you'd see a strong curved band structure wrapping around the low-level center. and It's honestly hard to make out where the center is. The convection really looks no different than what we deal w/ on a regular basis over the SE US in the summer.

Click to expand...

Yeah there really isn't much to the storm right now and it's really being hit hard by that shear now. It probably will weaken into a depression or even a wave, but we still have to see about after Hispaniola.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Yeah there really isn't much to the storm right now and it's really being hit hard by that shear now. It probably will weaken into a depression or even a wave, but we still have to see about after Hispaniola.
Click to expand...

This area is called the “graveyard” for a reason.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Yeah there really isn't much to the storm right now and it's really being hit hard by that shear now. It probably will weaken into a depression or even a wave, but we still have to see about after Hispaniola.
Click to expand...
As you noted yesterday, GFS takes it a wave before the island....
 
ForsythSnow said:
And I'm starting to think the GFS is right prior to the islands, but the other models are after. It would make sense as they are starting to converge.
Click to expand...
You see any reason that high won't be as stout as presented? Last thing we need is a runner up the coast.
 
Track guidance is getting tightly clustered, good thing as of now this looking like a weak system IF it survives...

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