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Pattern Anaphylactic August

Raise you one ...

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
259 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2019
Suwannee-Gilchrist-Eastern Alachua-Western Alachua-Central Marion-
Western Marion-
Including the cities of Houston, Live Oak, McAlpin, Newburn,
Suwannee Springs, Trenton, Gainesville, Gainesville Airport,
Newnans Lake, High Springs, Newberry, Archer, Anthony, Burbank,
Ocala, Weirsdale, and Ocala Airport
259 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2019
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Jacksonville has issued a

* Flood Watch for a portion of northern Florida, including the
following areas, Alachua, Gilchrist, Suwannee, Central Marion,
and Western Marion.

* Through Saturday evening

* Within the flood watch area, up to 3 to 6 inches of rainfall
from this morning through Saturday evening. Additionally,
rainfall estimates from radar data suggest most of the area
within the watch have recieved 3 to 6 inches of rainfall over
the last week.
 
A thin line of very heavy showers developed overhead here in SAV and showers within it are training thus resulting in 1"+ in just the last 30 minutes! It is still coming down heavily. street flooding is undoubtedly occurring. Only occasional rumbles of thunder.
 
Looks like we could see more storms around here today.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
219 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2019

NCZ024-025-040-041-161915-
Chatham NC-Durham NC-Wake NC-Orange NC-
219 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE...
NORTHWESTERN WAKE...NORTHEASTERN CHATHAM AND SOUTHWESTERN DURHAM
COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

At 219 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Chapel Hill, moving east at 10 mph.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Heavy rain and minor flooding and deadly cloud to ground lightning
will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Raleigh, Durham, Cary, Chapel Hill, Carrboro, RDU International,
Morrisville, Gorman, Parkwood and Research Triangle.
 
GaWx said:
A thin line of very heavy showers developed overhead here in SAV and showers within it are training thus resulting in 1"+ in just the last 30 minutes! It is still coming down heavily. Street flooding is undoubtedly occurring. Only occasional rumbles of thunder.
Click to expand...

For the subsequent hour, it rained heavily on and off. I ended up with an impressive ~2.6" in just 1.5 hours (1:30-3PM). Whereas two days ago gave us the storm of the summer so far in terms of the combo of CTG lightning, winds, and rains combined, today has given us the heaviest rains of the summer to date due to training of storms. There has been no CTG lightning of note and winds have been light. Just mainly beneficial rains. Still light rain falling.

In just the last 3 days, I've received ~4.5" with rain still falling lightly and more likely to come over the next couple of days. This should take care of watering needs for perhaps the rest of the hot season.

Edit: This heavy rain was the result of an outer band of a weak sfc low to our SW over/near N FL bringing up plentiful tropical moisture.

This week has been The Big Wet Part 2 of this summer here.
 
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Starting to get active out there.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
345 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2019

NCZ041-162045-
Wake NC-
345 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WAKE COUNTY UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

At 344 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
RDU International, or near Raleigh, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Heavy rain and minor flooding will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Raleigh, Cary, Garner, Fuquay-Varina, RDU International, Apex, Holly
Springs, Morrisville, Knightdale and Lake Wheeler.
 
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Another data point:

ATL has only seen one day so far this month with a negative departure (-1) on 8/2, and no days with a high lower than 87*F.

The forecast high today is 98*F.
 
SouthATLwx said:
Another data point:

ATL has only seen one day so far this month with a negative departure (-1) on 8/2, and no days with a high lower than 87*F.

The forecast high today is 98*F.
Click to expand...
That's brutal

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Been quite a run of above normal fall weather, sort of like our winters. I would trade a below normal fall for a torch winter with no snow. Looking forward to some overnight lows in the 50's.

WarmFalls.png
 
KyloG said:
Been quite a run of above normal fall weather, sort of like our winters. I would trade a below normal fall for a torch winter with no snow. Looking forward to some overnight lows in the 50's.

View attachment 21729
Click to expand...
I thought it was just me. Good to see that fall has been terrible for a while.

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KyloG said:
Been quite a run of above normal fall weather, sort of like our winters. I would trade a below normal fall for a torch winter with no snow. Looking forward to some overnight lows in the 50's.

View attachment 21729
Click to expand...

Decembers too have been nothing but above and well above average lately (shock news).

The last solidly below normal December was in 2010 (ages ago), since then our average over the last 8 Decembers is 3-5F above normal, without ONE single climate division in the US 0.5F or more below average in that span and we've had 8 Decembers in a row w/ above normal temps in the SE US, that just doesn't happen by chance...

It should be pretty obvious to everyone at this point that large-scale global warming is projecting onto US temps & if you don't account for it like bathtub slosh boy (Joe Bastardi), you get burned literally & figuratively in your seasonal forecasts.

Maybe someday we'll get a below average December again & a foot of snow at Charlotte &/or RDU.

That'll also be the day that pigs fly. /s

cd69.217.128.238.228.8.20.54.prcp.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Decembers too have been nothing but above and well above average lately (shock news).

The last solidly below normal December was in 2010 (ages ago), since then our average over the last 8 Decembers is 3-5F above normal, without ONE single climate division in the US 0.5F or more below average in that span and we've had 8 Decembers in a row w/ above normal temps in the SE US, that just doesn't happen by chance...

It should be pretty obvious to everyone at this point that large-scale global warming is projecting onto US temps & if you don't account for it like bathtub slosh boy (Joe Bastardi), you get burned literally & figuratively in your seasonal forecasts.

Maybe someday we'll get a below average December again & a foot of snow at Charlotte &/or RDU.

That'll also be the day that pigs fly. /s

View attachment 21730
Click to expand...

The only month we've been significantly below normal for this decade & had some sort of success being cold is November.

Perfect! A below normal November is typically just warm enough to keep virtually all of our events cold rain (sigh) minus that freak ULL-induced snowstorm in Columbia, SC on Nov 1, 2014 & a random flizzard event in central-eastern NC in Nov 2013.

We can't do anything right. :rolleyes:
cd69.217.128.238.228.8.31.25.prcp.png
 
Folks when thunder roars go indoors!!! Per NWS. Scattered storms have developed in NC
 
SD said:
Yeah not sure if the incoming outflow gets it done

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Click to expand...
I'm in your neck of the woods this weekend, hoping for a classic SD outflow

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More storms on the way. This could be the 4th day in a row that I get a storm. Reminds me of summers as a kid here in the 80s. And I swear I get more storms now when we're not under a watch or a severe threat of any kind.
 
I love random past midnight thunderstorms with an absolute downpour! I was just chilling, probably about half asleep watching baseball and all of a sudden the satellite was going in and out and I heard thunder and it's now pouring. I have to think we're picking up a surprise inch right now or even more.

It actually felt amazing outside too. I was shocked when I went out because of how bad it's been of late.
 
So it's looking like "exceptionally zonal" is going to be the weather theme in the foreseeable future.
 
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