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Pattern July

Tarheel1 said:
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You could have had this
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Would you rather - have 0.2 stratiform rain or a nearby thunderstorm with cool lightning but no rain and your the only area that misses ?
 
Brrrrrrrr...????73E6B001-AEB6-4D8A-848F-78C68FDDCF10.png
 
SD said:
Yeah I have to agree. I'm still not certain the front passes the area but if it does maybe the -10-15 has some legs. Climo for mid summer certainly argues for this to come to a halt over the area

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Didn’t we have fronts last July that dropped temps to 10 below normal?


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BHS1975 said:
Didn’t we have fronts last July that dropped temps to 10 below normal?


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Sure did RDU had a high of 79 and a low of 57 behind the front. It's not that unusual to get fronts into the area in July but it is more usual to see temps tempered back to slightly below normal not to get a big cool/dry push with highs 10-15 degrees below normal. My thing with this setup is are we able to get a long wave trough to plow though the area? We are kind of teetering on the models between pushing a deep trough through or having it elongated then split where the northern piece heads off into the Atlantic and the southern piece closes off over the area. If scenario #1 pans out we probably get a day or 2 in the low 80s with dews in the 50s/60s (CMC) if scenario 2 pans out the front would likely stall then wash out or lift north with a much more muted cool/dry push (GFS) It'll be interesting to see how the models pan out over the coming days

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No thanks I would rather be 100 than close to 55. Unlike others it’s been to wet cloudy and cool early on northwest NC
 
SD said:
Yeah I have to agree. I'm still not certain the front passes the area but if it does maybe the -10-15 has some legs. Climo for mid summer certainly argues for this to come to a halt over the area

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I think if it doesn't pass thru, the chances for rain/storms will increase cloud cover that will probably keep temps down.

I also would keep my eyes peeled for tropical cyclogenesis once it does eventually wash out if a piece of the front gets stuck over the Gulf of Mexico or off the SE US coast.
 
from the nws bmx office in bama

THE FORECAST IS A BIT MORE INTERESTING AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE WAVE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY OVER CANADA AND THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CONUS ON SUNDAY. DEEP-LAYER TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. UNCHARACTERISTIC
OF THIS TIME OF YEAR, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA
ON MONDAY, DRIVING MORE ORGANIZED RAIN CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS IN TRYING TO PUSH THIS BOUNDARY INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA BY
THURSDAY, THOUGH TYPICALLY SUMMER SEASON COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES ARE
UNCOMMON IN ALABAMA. BELIEVE THE MODELS MAY BE A BIT EXAGGERATED ON
THE SOUTHERN PROGRESSION OF THE BOUNDARY, BUT CERTAINLY IF THE
PATTERN AMPLIFIES AS MUCH AS EXPECTED, THEN THE LIKELY OUTCOME WILL
BE A FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND MID-WEEK. DUE TO THE MENTIONED
UNCERTAINTY, DID NOT GO ANY HIGHER THAN CHANCE/NUMEROUS POPS FOR
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPLY MOISTURE INTO THE REGION SUCH THAT PWATS WILL
STILL BE NEAR 2.0 INCHES OVER CENTRAL AL NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY AND CONVERGENCE ZONE. RAIN TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THANKFULLY, THE RAIN AND CLOUD
COVER WILL PROVIDE SOME RELIEF TO THE HOT TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY
 
Excessxcessxcessive Heat Watch in effect for the eastern Piedmont for the weekend. Hate.
 
I'll take snow anytime over this.

HEAT INDEX VALUES...Up to 105 today and around 105 degrees Friday.
Then, heat index values potentially may soar to between 110 and
113 Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Heat indices will likely
remain between 80 and 90 all night through the period

But we could get some nice storms out of it.

Hit-and-miss storms are possible Thursday afternoon and evening, and intense heat means a lot of lightning is possible, WRAL meteorologist Aimee Wilmoth said.
“When we have big heat like this, and they cause thunderstorms, they bring a lot of lightning with them and the potential for some damaging winds,” Wilmoth said.
 
Had a quick mainly wind storm knock out power around my house(Johnston County) around 5pm. Didn't think it was a big deal but power didn't come back on by 9pm so lost my delicious lasagna and eventually everything else in the fridge. Much larger storm with High winds rolled in around Midnight and removed some roofs in my area. Power eventually came back about 4am. Just a reminder to get those generators ready. I have one but wasn't set up for this random storm. Seems like Duke Energy isn't really maintaining my lines out my way.
 
My near miss yesterday!70AC531B-4E88-42C4-8424-6616DC3BDCD6.jpeg7DAD19A9-7AEB-4EFB-844B-9589A3681339.jpeg
 
Some NC mountains won’t get out of the 60s for highs. But sure go to the Rockies to beat the heat makes sense
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Some NC mountains won’t get out of the 60s for highs. But sure go to the Rockies to beat the heat makes sense
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The Rockies are awesome. At Vail for example, you’ll almost always have dewpoints in the 20s-40s in the summer. Practically a guarantee. You don’t have to worry about the wx pattern. Plus the birds to see out there are a bonus. About the hottest it usually gets there are highs in the middle 80s, but typically dewpoints are then in the 20s-30s. So, it feels fantastic. Highs are only around 80 for the hottest normal and very dry!
 
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