JHS
Member
Had a 70% chance of storms in upstate SC today and there is very little on the radar over this area. I sure wish Barry was taking the track hurricane Francis took in 2004. Maybe it would finally rain around here.
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Pattern July
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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I need to put up a range gauge, finally got in on the action last night as well, definitely a lot.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I'm going to be watching again tonight to see if another sort of band sets up anywhere nearby and does this again. It just came out of nowhere and exploded.
I win, decent amount of rain here 
While Mack loses ?
Don’t worry. Rain will pick back up when I pull back into the 864
pcbjr
Member
This, children, is what the NWS calls: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 10pm.
BufordWX
Member
Another storm is starting to blow up around here tonight. Already seeing lightning flashes and hearing thunder here. Hoping for another downpour tonight!
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
No 100 degree days in the forecast, but plenty of mid 90s. I guess that is the norm now. Instead of two or three days of triple digits we just get a whole month of mid 90s heat.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
From the storm that turned me back while I was walking but actually missed my house since it rained out about 3 miles away from me.
Don't count your blessings yet, Thursday through Sunday of next week could all be near 100. Couple of ways this can go #1 we see a lingering low/mid level trough from Barry hang on if a weakness on the east side of the developing central us ridge can form over the area increasing rain chances and keeping us more in the mid 90s. 2nd we see Barry quickly pushed out to sea and the ridge builds in far enough east warm 850s are affected in on the NW flow and we get a bunch of days near 100 with dews mixing into the 50s and 60s.
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BHS1975
Member
NoSnowATL
Member
Storms are all around me.... just a matter of time since I just finished cutting the grass.
.... nevermind
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Shaggy
Member
Fell asleep and then woke up to a deluge outside with some rumbles of thunder.
We saw 3 observations of 89*F, so will have to wait until later to see if there was an intra-hour 90*F.
We saw 3 observations of 89*F, so will have to wait until later to see if there was an intra-hour 90*F.
NoSnowATL
Member
Storms are all around me.... just a matter of time since I just finished cutting the grass.
.... nevermind
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Nope, somehow I was under the yellow but it never rained. More storms moving from west to east.
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Just got totally raked in South Charlotte. Now under flash flood warning...
And 90*F it is for the high today.
BufordWX
Member
Got some decent rain here today! Had a few hours of light to moderate rain with a few minutes of heavier rain at the start. Ended up getting .58” today which I will gladly take.
I feel like this has been the same D10+ model image since 5/1 and every time we have ended up with a trough in the NW and big heights over the SE. It would certainly be nice to get into a long period of western ridge east trough to end the month
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I feel like this has been the same D10+ model image since 5/1 and every time we have ended up with a trough in the NW and big heights over the SE. It would certainly be nice to get into a long period of western ridge east trough to end the month
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Yeah, the new GFS is horrific in constantly showing a western ridge and eastern trough. Not gonna be a good winter for weenies if it holds that bias that Larry has preached about.
Welcome to winter in the SE!I feel like this has been the same D10+ model image since 5/1 and every time we have ended up with a trough in the NW and big heights over the SE. It would certainly be nice to get into a long period of western ridge east trough to end the month
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Hope the 12z icon and 0z Canadian are on to something with the remnants of Barry. Keeping that small area of vorticity around would certainly keep rain chances up
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12z Euro is crazy hot Saturday and Sunday. Really getting on board with 100+ both days next weekend. Interestingly enough the heat may be centered more toward the mid Atlantic where areas could push 105
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Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Come to papa
The good news is that the Euro was 8-10 degrees too hot on several runs with the late May heatwave. I mean it had way beyond stupid heat values of absurdly hot at 18Z/2 PM of 108-111 in parts of S GA and N FL.! The culprit apparently was too low dewpoints making it heat up faster than reality. OTOH, the old GFS had higher dewpoints and consequently lower 18Z temps. Is that happening this time? I don't know.
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dsaur
Member
Just had a couple of gravity waves go thru and a cool wind whipped up while I was picking blue berries, and that was the best feeling 82 I've experienced in a while
It's the odd things on a hot summer's day that makes it bearable sometimes.
Yeah I'm wondering if the Euro may be too hot again at 2m. The one thing that makes me think we might inch closer to 100 is the 850mb temps around 25c which seems to be a benchmark around here too push or exceed 100.
To your point about the dews being too low it certainly seems that its having some type of error/bias in the mid to long range. It always seems to be running in the top 25% of the ensemble spread on 2m temp and the bottom 25% on qpf, those would obviously be tied to dews being too low in the warm season.
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NCSNOW
Member
The Dog Days Of Summer are in full swing. Man I despise the wx this time of year. With the Beach trip and Garden in the rear view mirror, beyond ready for summer to be over. Like the ole country song its to hot to fish,to hot for golf and really to hot to even hit the pool. Inserted last stanza. Enough ranting, Forecast never changes from day to day. Highs in the 90s lows in the 70s. Chance of rain swings back n forth from 0 to 30%. Tv mets and nws in the south should just go on vacation mid july to late august. Ill take a 33 degree rain day over this crap any day of the week
pcbjr
Member
Just one in 365 would be a miracle of sorts ...
Going to be a 7+ day stretch of 95+ coming up. Think saturday or Sunday goes 100-102 at rdu
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Maxar is forecasting two of the six hottest days since 1950 on a US energy usage weighted cooling degree day basis for 7/19-20:
7/20/19’s 16.43 CDDs would rank 2nd hottest to only 7/22/11’s 16.87
7/19/19’s 15.9 would actually be the hottest day since 7/22/11 though 7/20/19 would then eclipse 7/19/19
7/20/19’s 16.43 CDDs would rank 2nd hottest to only 7/22/11’s 16.87
7/19/19’s 15.9 would actually be the hottest day since 7/22/11 though 7/20/19 would then eclipse 7/19/19
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You can't even escape the heat in the midwest or northeast this time of year. I guess the best bet is to head to the rockies.
or grandfather mtn NC
