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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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Here comes the ULL, I can say that it's going to come in like a wreaking ball lol

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metwannabe said:
So I was reading an article the other day (Founders week at Campbell University where my daughter is a freshman), anyway it was discussing the universities beginning and how in the late 1800's when it was Buies Creek Academy one of the founders was so concerned about children's education that he would walk the kids in the community across the frozen Cape Fear River to get them to class during Winter.... I wonder if there is any validity to that statement, just seems unreal to me, that far south. Anyway sorry for the OT just passing time till the 12z suites run
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December 1876, February 1895, and February 1899 immediately stick out to me as possible candidates, of these three, I think February 1895 is the most legitimate given how cold it was in central and eastern NC then. For ex, in February 1895, Raleigh and Charlotte were virtually at or below freezing for almost 2 weeks straight!
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metwannabe said:
DGEX FTW... here ya go lol

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HAHA! All aboard the DGEX...SMH!


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Webberweather53 said:
December 1876, February 1895, and February 1899 immediately stick out to me as possible candidates, of these three, I think February 1895 is the most legitimate given how cold it was in central and eastern NC then. For ex, in February 1895, Raleigh and Charlotte were virtually at or below freezing for almost 2 weeks straight!
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Holy crap! Considering it began in 1887 and according to your data it sure as heck was possible..... thanks man! Awesome stuff
 
tractor girl said:
I'm willing to bet anyone $100 today that Metro ATL gets either cold rain or nothing at all. So much excitement but not for us. Longing for 2011, 1993, 1983...
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Yeah you may be right about that, but hey, I always root for Atlanta to get snow when we get a snowstorm. I'm in Greenville, SC, and we are just in a more favorable location during these events. I mean we can get a big snowstorm and Atlanta get nothing but rain or at best, freezing rain or sleet. We get disappointed a lot too though.
 
metwannabe said:
Holy crap! Considering it began in 1887 and according to your data it sure as heck was possible..... thanks man! Awesome stuff
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Sure! Yeah, February 1895 is one of the coldest months on record in NC and the southeastern NC, the NCDC climate division ranks show that February is the coldest on record for every climate division in North and South Carolina
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First one to say "this one's not gonna get it done" regarding the 12z GFS has to drop and do 50 push-ups.


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metwannabe said:
Holy crap! Considering it began in 1887 and according to your data it sure as heck was possible..... thanks man! Awesome stuff
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Yeah, the official records go back to 1887 for Raleigh, but there is some data back to April 1884 and many other stations have data available as far back as 1857, as is the case for Asheville... It's unfortunate that some of the data was not recorded, lost during the Civil War, or via negligence....

Source: NCDC IPS (Image and Publication System)
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/
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At 114hrs ULL noticeably further west than 06z, northern stream stronger but not as far SW as we'd like...we'll see how far down it comes. Looking good so far.
 
SD said:
Yep the more of these things you post the more I realize we have sucked over the past 20 years other than Jan 00 Jan 01
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I can vouch for that SD. I grew up in the 60's and 70's, and we just got more snow and colder winters back then. I know everybody on this board has heard JB speak of the "great winters of the 60's and 70's" ..........well he wasn't just talking about the northeast. Those two decades were great for the southeast too.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah, the official records go back to 1887 for Raleigh, but there is some data back to April 1884 and many other stations have data available as far back as 1857, as is the case for Asheville... It's unfortunate that some of the data was not recorded, lost during the Civil War, or via negligence....

Source: NCDC IPS (Image and Publication System)
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/
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Holy hell 1884 data . That's amazing . Obviously your compiling data are you gonna publish it all in like a boom form ?

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tonysc said:
I can vouch for that SD. I grew up in the 60's and 70's, and we just got more snow and colder winters back then. I know everybody on this board has heard JB speak of the "great winters of the 60's and 70's" ..........well he wasn't just talking about the northeast. Those two decades were great for the southeast too.
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There were some great winters in the 80s too.
 
At 138hr energy looking great from the PV/northern stream, the NW side of the vortex has very strong energy and the PV is actually further south a tad...ULL continues to be more southwest and closed off, could be a good run for NC, may end up being our first phase, we'll see.. finally opens up the ULL at 153hrs, stayed closed longer...
 
The vortex up in the NE is more at an ark and not flat like the 06z at 144-150.

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Looks to be a slightly colder run.
 
Jon said:
Definitely colder Rain Cold, check out the NW side of the PV dropping down and the NW expansion of the -10C line. Good signs.
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Yes sir! If it's not squashed, get ready for some good stuff!
 
Yes, it's more held back and further south. I'm sure it will come further north as the low progresses east.

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The low is coming in a little later and more suppressed. This run is going to have a rare central FL crossing, the kind that can bring snow deep in the SE if it is cold enough and which is most common in mid Feb.
 
GaWx said:
The low is coming in a little later and more suppressed. This run is going to have a rare central FL crossing, the kind that can bring snow deep in the SE if it is cold enough and which is most common in mid Feb.
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Snow breaking out not even far from SAV this run. Precip is just suppressed for this area. But this is a good sign and falls right into what we have been talking about with the time of the month and the deep south hits.
 
Liking where we stand. I don't see a huge north trend but I doubt this goes that far south.

At 192 there's a little light snow near the coast of SC.
 
I love the unpredictability of ULL's and how they can wobble around like hurricanes without strong steering forces. However, does anyone else find it painful to watch these models come out and the cutoff just sits out SW and spins, and spins, and spins? Definitely a big contrast to today's system!
 
Not a bad run. If precip gets further North, it puts a lot of people in play around GA, SC, NC at the least.
 
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