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Pattern May: gateway to everyone's favorite season

Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Perfect beach weather next week. Couldn’t draw it up any better. I’ll be sure to post some alligator pics
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YALL CAN HAVE THE BEACH, I WISH IT WOULD GO AWAY. I CAN NOT STAND THE SAND AND SALTY A@$ WATER....

JK KEEP THE BEACH BUT I CANT HANDLE IT.. GIVE ME A WEEK OR TWO IN CADES COVE TENNESSEE AND IM IN HEAVEN
 
Brick Tamland said:
This is why it is so important to have a weather radio or app on your phone to get alerts. We were not supposed to get anything like this according to the local NWS, local TV mets, and SPC. I really think there needs to be a study or investigation into why we as re getting severe storms here more often when we are not under any kind of watch than when we are the past 9 years.
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The day prior the boundary was in Wilkes/Surry producing tornado warnings. I was on I77 and it was one of the most photogenic boundaries I ever witnessed. Blue sky south and dark purple cumulus north in a west to east fashion. It was unreal seeing tall purple clouds next to nothing and overtaking the sun. If anything is researched it should be noted that boundary had a history of severe storms and just kept producing the next day further east.
 
Well here's something I haven't seen in a while. Every day in the medium-long range SPC outlooks have something in them.
day48prob.gif
 
Brick Tamland said:
This is why it is so important to have a weather radio or app on your phone to get alerts. We were not supposed to get anything like this according to the local NWS, local TV mets, and SPC. I really think there needs to be a study or investigation into why we as re getting severe storms here more often when we are not under any kind of watch than when we are the past 9 years.
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If you're talking like yesterday I would say very few. One or two warnings does not warrant a watch. Severe weather happens when it wants. If a warning gets issued the public is alerted. It would be another issue if there were no warnings issued for severe weather. Often there is no sense in issuing a watch for an area if a very small part is going to get severe or the chance is very low.

In short, you don't need a watch for a couple warnings as the public gets warning alerts, but severe events have happened before a watch is issued if at all.

To answer the question or statement you've repeated all season, I believe if it's just a couple warnings a watch is deemed unnecessary. If it looks like a short duration event, a watch is unnecessary, such as storms only being around for an hour.

Also keep this in mind that RDU doesn't issue watches. The SPC office does. Therefore if a local office issued several warnings, and more storms are on the way, the SPC would likely see that as a reason to issue a watch. Also, why alert thousands to severe weather if it is just a popup storm threat that will be gone in an hour? Sometimes you have to look at the costs and benefits of issuing a watch.
 
The central plains severe threat looks nasty coming up at the end of this week. I imagine a severe thread will need to be put up so this forum won't get spammed with messages about it.
 
Per 12Z GFS in the SE, good amount of mid 90s 5/22 and widespread mid 90s 5/23 with some low 100s those 2 days SE GA/far N FL due to 594 dm 500 mb heat ridge. Similar for 5/27-8. The low 100s are overdone imo with some upper 90s more likely for hottest. Still that would be near record highs!
 
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I think Raleigh did need a watch earlier than what was issued due to the fact it had a history of confirmed tornado warnings (for days). It shouldn’t have came as a surprise that particular boundary was dangerous after producing the unwarned tornado in Virginia two days prior. If you wanna research it, go back and trace the history of this boundary. NWS Blacksburg should have communicated this threat with NWS Raleigh.
 
Day 1 tornado strikes VA with no warning. Day 2 tornado warnings strike Surry NC and others. Day 3 tornado warnings strike Raleigh area. It was simple as watching the boundary sag south. There may be a history prior to this boundary being in the Virginia Piedmont too for anyone curious on the tornado risk that was miscommunicated or monitored.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
I think Raleigh did need a watch earlier than what was issued due to the fact it had a history of confirmed tornado warnings (for days). It shouldn’t have came as a surprise that particular boundary was dangerous after producing the unwarned tornado in Virginia two days prior. If you wanna research it, go back and trace the history of this boundary. NWS Blacksburg should have communicated this threat with NWS Raleigh.
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Just because a boundary had a history doesn't mean that it persisted the entire duration. That reasoning is like saying a low pressure with a history of snow will produce snow across its entire path two days later. Just the reasoning seems off. This goes back to my prior post as well. One tornado warning/ severe warning doesn't warrant a watch necessarily. If the tornado was unwarned it's the local office's fault for not issuing it, not the SPCs. The NWS of Blacksburg made a wrong call by not issuing a warning. RDU at least issued warnings for such.
 
Not weather related but a fire plume is showing up on the mobile, alabama radar.
Apparently from a brush fire. Screenshot_20190514-142447_RadarScope.jpg
 
GaWx said:
Per 12Z GFS in the SE, good amount of mid 90s 5/22 and widespread mid 90s 5/23 with some low 100s those 2 days SE GA/far N FL due to 594 dm 500 mb heat ridge. Similar for 5/27-8. The low 100s are overdone imo with some upper 90s more likely for hottest. Still that would be near record highs!
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Going 97º - 98º after May 22nd through the end of the month down here, unless a seabreeze front decides to collide with another one from the opposite direction ...
 
GaWx said:
Per 12Z GFS in the SE, good amount of mid 90s 5/22 and widespread mid 90s 5/23 with some low 100s those 2 days SE GA/far N FL due to 594 dm 500 mb heat ridge. Similar for 5/27-8. The low 100s are overdone imo with some upper 90s more likely for hottest. Still that would be near record highs!
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Never bet against Columbia's ability to break 100. If anywhere does it this month it'll be there.
 
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