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Wintry April Fools? (1-2) Surprise Storm

Nick_boynton_ said:
1 model run doesn’t mean much at all .. if consistently the RGEM keeps this up then we have a problem but wouldn’t look much past this
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The previous RGEM run was a little wetter, colder and had a few areas seeing around 1" of snow with broader snow coverage. This run was drier, warmer and very few saw snow. The RGEM and 3km NAM are the top two models at this stage, I think the 3km idea of heavier snow in upstate SC south of the 85 corridor may be closer to what we see but seeing the RGEM come in warmer/drier for the areas cold enough for snow is not what you want to be seeing this close to go time.
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Plus other models are keeping this threat strong and that’s what I’m banking on. Plus if the north west quadrant has more precip and is more expansive (as they usually are with these events) that precip will hit earlier and we won’t have to deal much with the surface temps being too warm
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Yeah the RGEM fail was caused by the less expansive precip shield
Snowflowxxl said:
When the RGEM throws warning shots, it’s usually correct.
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DONT DO THAT! ☹️??
 
GaWx said:
None of this will be a “problem” if folks would assume there will probably be little accumulation in most areas at best. Then maybe they will be surprised or maybe not. But no chance for disappointment this way.
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I agree, there are a lot of things that can go wrong with this event especially if people are expecting several inches of snow. Could that happen? Sure it could if heavy qpf makes it in and the WAA is held at bay. What usually happens? The WAA is stronger than modeled, surface temps end up being warmer than modeled and the qpf is less than modeled. Not saying this will happen again but just looking at all the factors here and the warning shots shown in the high-res models I still think those that see snow will see very little accumulation, more of a novelty event and fun to watch it fall.
 
snowlover91 said:
I agree, there are a lot of things that can go wrong with this event especially if people are expecting several inches of snow. Could that happen? Sure it could if heavy qpf makes it in and the WAA is held at bay. What usually happens? The WAA is stronger than modeled, surface temps end up being warmer than modeled and the qpf is less than modeled. Not saying this will happen again but just looking at all the factors here and the warning shots shown in the high-res models I still think those that see snow will see very little accumulation, more of a novelty event and fun to watch it fall.
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Stronger then modeled WAA does argue for the development of precipitation tho, especially between 700 hPa-850 hPa
 
Going to have a Bojangles dinner this evening and digest all the 18z guidance. Will talk Winter Weather Advisory near the Charlotte NC corridor all the way to the Virginia state line. EURO will soon come out with more moisture. Fresh biscuits
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Stronger then modeled WAA does argue for the development of precipitation tho, especially between 700 hPa-850 hPa
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I think the problem for areas in Western NC is the fact that by the time the precip starts reaching the surface, solar insolation is causing major issues for the BL. Both the 3km NAM and RGEM are very light with snow that falls in Western NC, BL temps of 34-37 are going to make it tough for any snow to accumulate... not to mention the sun itself will be melting any snow that tries to stick and the warm ground certainly won't help. I think upstate SC has the best shot personally, assuming they can get enough heavy qpf in there to cool the BL down and wetbulb effectively... but the RGEM 850mb temp trend for that area is concerning.
 
Folks the TV Mets don’t know. No one knows how far west the cutoff line will be. They are just going by the maps we see. I will say it’s very difficult for many areas to see much of anything if moisture is not pre-established upon the east coast divide. GSP and Charlotte could barely be clipped with any snow. Model guidance is just guidance. Not a forecast.
 
Upstate SC usually does not do well either if moisture is not pre established out west. Could see the main moisture slip past south-east of the upstate in a hurry.
 
Here are the 12Z GFS and FV3: one looks reasonable for the high end of what could happen (GFS) while the other looks way overdone (FV3), especially with that bogus Myrtle Beach heavy snow. This GFS run is about the snowiest yet:
8C070F67-26D8-45CF-91FA-BF4444B7F0B8.png16CFA9EA-3714-46AC-8BD0-ADA36F3CE53D.png
 
GaWx said:
Here are the 12Z GFS and FV3: one looks reasonable for the high end of what could happen (GFS) while the other looks way overdone (FV3). This GFS run is about the snowiest yet:
View attachment 18319View attachment 18320
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If the TT maps didn’t show rain as snow (FV3) these maps are pretty much the same in areas of the upstate where snow falls
 
What I find weird is how the rgem hasn’t at least had a uptick in precip, LP has gotten closer to the coast each run, I’m assuming it some energy at H5 not going right, anyways continue to get that heavier precip from the coastal itself getting closer/closer LP and there would likely be a uptick in precip but also maybe some overwhelming WAA in some areas 279A8353-B9EB-44CB-B4ED-59534C663570.gif
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
What I find weird is how the rgem hasn’t at least had a uptick in precip, LP has gotten closer to the coast each run, I’m assuming it some energy at H5 not going right, anyways continue to get that heavier precip from the coastal itself getting closer/closer LP and there would likely be a uptick in precip but also maybe some overwhelming WAA in some areas View attachment 18321
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Great find here. LP 100 miles closer to the coast yet the precip shield remains the same..k
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
What I find weird is how the rgem hasn’t at least had a uptick in precip, LP has gotten closer to the coast each run, I’m assuming it some energy at H5 not going right, anyways continue to get that heavier precip from the coastal itself getting closer/closer LP and there would likely be a uptick in precip but also maybe some overwhelming WAA in some areas View attachment 18321
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Warm air advection and the northwestward extent of precipitation field go hand-in-hand, they're not mutually exclusive as was implied by a blogger on the previous page. It's therefore high unlikely we'll see WAA and less precipitation given that WAA is one of the forcing(s) for ascent here in addition to CVA and CVA is arguably the primary one. More intense WAA >>> more ascent >>> more likely to see precipitation over a larger area.

Unfortunately, many fail to make this basic connection between short-range NW trends & stronger than modeled mid-level warm noses we both observe time & time again in storms like this.
 
Impressive little system, especially as it starts to explode off the NC coast. Shame 850s aren't there here since I'm getting a decent amount of precip based on recent runs. This is the year I realize CAD does not benefit my area as much as I thought it did.
 
12Z GEFS mean: the most snowfall yet of any GEFS per my source: heaviest accum. is in 100 mile diameter circular area of 1/2-1" on both sides of a line from GSP to Charlotte with heaviest (1") on NC/SC border about 75 miles west of Charlotte.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Warm air advection and the northwestward extent of precipitation field go hand-in-hand, they're not mutually exclusive as was implied by a blogger on the previous page. It's therefore high unlikely we'll see WAA and less precipitation given that WAA is one of the forcing(s) for ascent here in addition to CVA and CVA is arguably the primary one.

Unfortunately, many fail to make this basic connection between short-range NW trends & stronger than modeled mid-level warm noses we both observe time & time again in storms like this.
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I think you need to reread what I wrote and also it would be helpful to express disagreement without the condescending tones anytime someone disagrees with you. Here's what I said in relation to what usually happens in our winter events: "The WAA is stronger than modeled, surface temps end up being warmer than modeled and the qpf is less than modeled. Not saying this will happen again but just looking at all the factors here and the warning shots shown in the high-res models I still think those that see snow will see very little accumulation, more of a novelty event and fun to watch it fall."

I never said or implied it's mutually exclusive or always the case but pointed out that I've personally experienced storms where the WAA overperformed and the qpf didn't. That doesn't mean this one will be the same way but the high-res models are firing some warning shots that are worth noting and discussing. Even if we do get stronger WAA and a further NW precip shield it's entirely possible that most areas in upstate SC/Western NC see a cold rain or a brief snow/mix due to warmer air aloft... it's a very fine line with this storm.

Looking at the 12z runs the Fv3, CMC, RGEM and 3km NAM all have light precip along and north of the I-85 corridor with a general .1-.3" of qpf to work with except the GFS which is more suppressed than other models. The 32km/12km NAM and UK came in a bit wetter and are the wettest/furthest NW with the precip shield right now.

1554137997454.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Warm air advection and the northwestward extent of precipitation field go hand-in-hand, they're not mutually exclusive as was implied by a blogger on the previous page. It's therefore high unlikely we'll see WAA and less precipitation given that WAA is one of the forcing(s) for ascent here in addition to CVA and CVA is arguably the primary one. More intense WAA >>> more ascent >>> more likely to see precipitation over a larger area.

Unfortunately, many fail to make this basic connection between short-range NW trends & stronger than modeled mid-level warm noses we both observe time & time again in storms like this.
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Even those two coastals that “we expecting to whiff” then ended up giving some snow to SE NC early March and the one back in January had a slightly more expansive precip Sheild than thought, like you said it will probably happen this go around (tad bit more NW and more expansive precip) because when does it not, lol
 
snowlover91 said:
You can make a point and disagree without being condescending, keep it respectful and friendly. I have not personally attacked you or spoken to you in a condescending way at all.

Furthermore, I shared my personal experience and also noted it may not be the case here but that I expect the qpf to be light along and nw of the 85 corridor. I fail to see how discussing the 3km and RGEM, the two best models we have for thermal profiles and qpf inside 48 hours, is model hugging or how posting graphics of the GFS, Fv3 and even the wet/nw UK is model hugging.

Anyone have UK snow/qpf maps? Hard to tell from the rough meteocentre ones what it’s showing.
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The UK had more QPF NW and also had a large area around the I-85 corridor from GSP to CLT with 2+ in of snow.
 
Warmer temps, pollen filled air... sprinkle in a possibility of a deep south spring snow and some things never change. Keep the bickering to nil, agree to disagree without making it personal or sounding condescending please. Don't make us have to actually moderate a fascinating close to historic spring snow storm... thank you
 
my willie billies will need to be moderated overnight I may go all in big dog watch out euro
 
Honestly if ur going to sit here and tell me I shouldn’t be confident with the euro/eps/ICON/ukmet/Nam 12km combo?! Then ur actually insane hahahha
 
Holy ---- balls at that RAP model. I'll be driving to work in a blizzard. Might just have the dogs pull me on my new sleigh instead.
 
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