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Wintry April Fools? (1-2) Surprise Storm

Myfrotho704_ said:
What I find weird is how the rgem hasn’t at least had a uptick in precip, LP has gotten closer to the coast each run, I’m assuming it some energy at H5 not going right, anyways continue to get that heavier precip from the coastal itself getting closer/closer LP and there would likely be a uptick in precip but also maybe some overwhelming WAA in some areas View attachment 18321
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Warm air advection and the northwestward extent of precipitation field go hand-in-hand, they're not mutually exclusive as was implied by a blogger on the previous page. It's therefore high unlikely we'll see WAA and less precipitation given that WAA is one of the forcing(s) for ascent here in addition to CVA and CVA is arguably the primary one. More intense WAA >>> more ascent >>> more likely to see precipitation over a larger area.

Unfortunately, many fail to make this basic connection between short-range NW trends & stronger than modeled mid-level warm noses we both observe time & time again in storms like this.
 
Impressive little system, especially as it starts to explode off the NC coast. Shame 850s aren't there here since I'm getting a decent amount of precip based on recent runs. This is the year I realize CAD does not benefit my area as much as I thought it did.
 
12Z GEFS mean: the most snowfall yet of any GEFS per my source: heaviest accum. is in 100 mile diameter circular area of 1/2-1" on both sides of a line from GSP to Charlotte with heaviest (1") on NC/SC border about 75 miles west of Charlotte.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Warm air advection and the northwestward extent of precipitation field go hand-in-hand, they're not mutually exclusive as was implied by a blogger on the previous page. It's therefore high unlikely we'll see WAA and less precipitation given that WAA is one of the forcing(s) for ascent here in addition to CVA and CVA is arguably the primary one.

Unfortunately, many fail to make this basic connection between short-range NW trends & stronger than modeled mid-level warm noses we both observe time & time again in storms like this.
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I think you need to reread what I wrote and also it would be helpful to express disagreement without the condescending tones anytime someone disagrees with you. Here's what I said in relation to what usually happens in our winter events: "The WAA is stronger than modeled, surface temps end up being warmer than modeled and the qpf is less than modeled. Not saying this will happen again but just looking at all the factors here and the warning shots shown in the high-res models I still think those that see snow will see very little accumulation, more of a novelty event and fun to watch it fall."

I never said or implied it's mutually exclusive or always the case but pointed out that I've personally experienced storms where the WAA overperformed and the qpf didn't. That doesn't mean this one will be the same way but the high-res models are firing some warning shots that are worth noting and discussing. Even if we do get stronger WAA and a further NW precip shield it's entirely possible that most areas in upstate SC/Western NC see a cold rain or a brief snow/mix due to warmer air aloft... it's a very fine line with this storm.

Looking at the 12z runs the Fv3, CMC, RGEM and 3km NAM all have light precip along and north of the I-85 corridor with a general .1-.3" of qpf to work with except the GFS which is more suppressed than other models. The 32km/12km NAM and UK came in a bit wetter and are the wettest/furthest NW with the precip shield right now.

1554137997454.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Warm air advection and the northwestward extent of precipitation field go hand-in-hand, they're not mutually exclusive as was implied by a blogger on the previous page. It's therefore high unlikely we'll see WAA and less precipitation given that WAA is one of the forcing(s) for ascent here in addition to CVA and CVA is arguably the primary one. More intense WAA >>> more ascent >>> more likely to see precipitation over a larger area.

Unfortunately, many fail to make this basic connection between short-range NW trends & stronger than modeled mid-level warm noses we both observe time & time again in storms like this.
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Even those two coastals that “we expecting to whiff” then ended up giving some snow to SE NC early March and the one back in January had a slightly more expansive precip Sheild than thought, like you said it will probably happen this go around (tad bit more NW and more expansive precip) because when does it not, lol
 
snowlover91 said:
You can make a point and disagree without being condescending, keep it respectful and friendly. I have not personally attacked you or spoken to you in a condescending way at all.

Furthermore, I shared my personal experience and also noted it may not be the case here but that I expect the qpf to be light along and nw of the 85 corridor. I fail to see how discussing the 3km and RGEM, the two best models we have for thermal profiles and qpf inside 48 hours, is model hugging or how posting graphics of the GFS, Fv3 and even the wet/nw UK is model hugging.

Anyone have UK snow/qpf maps? Hard to tell from the rough meteocentre ones what it’s showing.
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The UK had more QPF NW and also had a large area around the I-85 corridor from GSP to CLT with 2+ in of snow.
 
Warmer temps, pollen filled air... sprinkle in a possibility of a deep south spring snow and some things never change. Keep the bickering to nil, agree to disagree without making it personal or sounding condescending please. Don't make us have to actually moderate a fascinating close to historic spring snow storm... thank you
 
my willie billies will need to be moderated overnight I may go all in big dog watch out euro
 
Honestly if ur going to sit here and tell me I shouldn’t be confident with the euro/eps/ICON/ukmet/Nam 12km combo?! Then ur actually insane hahahha
 
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